Journal of Futures Studies

Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

by  Erzsébet Nováky and Miklós Orosz

Abstract

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the
behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected
behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the
selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced
and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present
results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came
to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses
were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change
them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic
indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change
interventions are then provided.

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
Fax: 886 2-2629-6440

ISSN 1027-6084