Journal of Futures Studies

Iran's Future Scenarios: An Illustrative Discussion of Multiple Mental Models

by Vahid V. Motlagh

ABSTRACT

Recent political developments in Iran, in particular the disputed presidential election which resulted in keeping Mr. Ahmadinejad seated in the office for the second term and the subsequent street and cyber events that were encouraged and orchestrated by the opposition leaders, drew global attention. This essay provides from an insider vantage point some alternative futures about the political outcomes of the disputed election by adopting a novel approach and applying the essence of scenario planning method, that is explicitly and directly switching among diverse mental models. In this essay after contextualizing the election problem six different mental models are explicitly adopted and accordingly six scenarios are created and briefly illustrated.

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
Fax: 886 2-2629-6440

ISSN 1027-6084