Journal of Futures Studies

Towards a "Planned Path Emergence" View on Future Genesis

by Victor Tiberius

ABSTRACT

In this paper, path dependence theory, path breaking, and path creation are discussed in order to provide an additional view to the study of future technological, economic, social, and organizational change. Path dependence theory can be ascribed to both contingent and deterministic views of change, whereas path breaking and path creation stress the voluntaristic influences actors have on changing and shaping paths. By contrasting these theories, and based on the idea of restrictive indeterminism, a midway approach called planned path emergence is suggested as a realistic view.

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
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ISSN 1027-6084