Journal of Futures Studies

Towards a Planetary Conversation?

by Anita Kelleher

Introduction

Halal and Marien have emphasised the interconnectedness of the challenges that face humanity in the 21st century. A ‘Perfect Storm’ of ‘Wicked Complexity’. I concur hence question whether the traditional linear Trends Analysis is appropriate for defining a Megacrisis that the authors suggest is the product of a non-linear system. As a way of understanding elements of the Megacrisis, it can produce useful insights but as a means of defining the Megacrisis a complex systems map might provide a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of these elements and a means to better appreciate the complexity. As Laszlo emphasises:

‘the doomsday arguments [Decline to Disaster scenario] miss a basic point: they do not recognise that humanity is also a dynamic system capable of rapid transformation. As the natural system approaches collapse it is sensitive and responds to small catalysts of change’ (2008, p.15).(continue…)

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
Fax: 886 2-2629-6440

ISSN 1027-6084