Journal of Futures Studies

Which Global Prospect to Bet on: Rosy or Gloomy

by Vahid V. Motlagh

Introduction

The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted”, so says the Oracle of Omaha (Buffett, 2011). A reasonable metaphor to perceive the nature of upcoming developments is the cycle of seasons. This implies that in the Halal-Marien (2011) debate the probabilities of the Rosy and Gloomy scenarios in the long run are more than 70% and less than 30% respectively. Scholars and activists should aim at the inner world of individuals in any global solutions for fast-forwarding to the Rosy scenario. In other words, people should have and encourage others to adopt an unshakable belief in the possibility of a better world.

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
Fax: 886 2-2629-6440

ISSN 1027-6084