The Indian IT industry has been an important pillar of the Indian economy for the last 2 decades. The IT sector has provided employment opportunities to millions, provided them with fairly high incomes in the context of the prevailing economic conditions in India, and has also been contributing handsomely to the country’s GDP. Successive governments have realized the importance of the Indian IT sector to further India’s economic advancement and have facilitated the growth of the sector, depending on it for employment generation and for bringing in foreign exchange. The Indian IT sector has grown from strength to strength from 1996, when the total revenue was USD 1.25 billion, and is now in very good health with its total revenues amounting to an estimated USD 143 billion in 2016. The official future, on which National Policy on Information Technology is developed, envisions the continuing growth of the Indian IT industry. But, will this ideal growth continue? Can anything go wrong? This paper identifies the one core segment that has driven the growth of the Indian IT sector and develops two scenarios for the core segment.
Keywords: Indian IT industry, India, Scenario, Horizon Scanning.