Scenarios: Worth the Effort?

by Graham T.T. Molitor

Introduction

As a practitioner and teacher of forecasting engaged for some 50 years in the futures field, I can’t recall any personal experience with scenario exercises that was worth the time and effort spent. Among major companies, business groups, and government offices I never saw scenarios make any major contribution or breakthrough. Scenarios presented to practical minded senior managers tended to be regarded as “paper bluster,” typically not worthy of the time to consider. I can’t recall any great success – despite what some colleagues may brag about. There are, of course, exceptions.(continue…)

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