Journal of Futures Studies

Global Megacrisis: A Survey of Four Scenarios on a Pessimism-Optimism Axis

by William Halal & Michael Marien

ABSTRACT

This symposium addresses the multiple threats of climate change, energy shortages, globalization, financial instability, and other critical issues we call the Global Megacrisis. A trend analysis is presented outlining these trends as well as other trends that may alleviate the Megacrisis. Results of a survey show that respondents estimate there is a 60% probability the world will either suffer a major Decline to Disaster or Muddling Down to severe problems. Responses from 13 invited scholars are included, as well as summary statements by the authors and the editor.

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Journal of Futures Studies

Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus
Taipei, Taiwan 251
Tel: 886 2-2621-5656 ext. 3001
Fax: 886 2-2629-6440

ISSN 1027-6084