Climate change is causing major pressures for energy systems to change, which is making low-carbon alternatives based on renewable energy sources increasingly attractive. This article used a hybrid methodology to identify and learn from the pioneers of renewable energy around the world. First, weak signals and emerging issues were identified to craft socio-cultural scenarios, which describe how societies could change, while adopting high shares of renewable energy. Four transformative scenarios “Radical Startups”, “Value-Driven Techemoths”, “Green Do-It-Yourself Engineers” and “New Consciousness” until the year 2050 were constructed. Pioneer analysis was then used to identify scenario-relevant pioneers in case study countries. The findings of an international expert survey describe
present pioneers who are leading ecological lifestyles and the adoption of renewable energy technologies. The findings can be used to think of leverage points for systemic change. The article finds pioneer analysis as a useful method to obtain foresight knowledge of anticipated transformations.
Keywords: Pioneer analysis, Weak signals, Renewable energy, Solar, Wind, Transformation, Scenario.