Iran's Future Scenarios: An Illustrative Discussion of Multiple Mental Models

by Vahid V. Motlagh


Recent political developments in Iran, in particular the disputed presidential election which resulted in keeping Mr. Ahmadinejad seated in the office for the second term and the subsequent street and cyber events that were encouraged and orchestrated by the opposition leaders, drew global attention. This essay provides from an insider vantage point some alternative futures about the political outcomes of the disputed election by adopting a novel approach and applying the essence of scenario planning method, that is explicitly and directly switching among diverse mental models. In this essay after contextualizing the election problem six different mental models are explicitly adopted and accordingly six scenarios are created and briefly illustrated.

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