Extracting Future Business Model Orientation through Scenario Development for Developing Countries


Today the competition is not only among businesses but also among business models. The future environment should reflect on the future business models currently being designed. Previous research has pursued the concept of a future business model through future methodologies with respect to specific cases, but the literature does not suggest any method for understanding the successful orientation of business model components under future plausible scenarios at the macro analysis level. One of the industries that is especially impressible is Iran’s software industry. This paper chose this example to introduce a method for making the future of Iran’s software industry apparent in addition to identifying the best orientation for the software firms’ business model components to be clearer for the future. In this regard, the related literature is reviewed, and then the effective factors, drivers, and uncertainties of Iran’s software industry are explored. Then, based on two uncertainties, four scenarios are introduced based on the ideas of the members in an expert panel. Subsequently, the priority of elements of business model components will be analyzed based on each scenario. The business model components are reduced to value proposition and revenue model in this paper since the core part of the business model is proposing the value and capturing it via the revenue model. This study is a qualitative research supplemented with quantitative measures with regard to its data collection method. The successful orientation of Iran’s future software business model is induced through a prioritizing method (GAHP) to attain the priorities of business model attributes for each element of business model components in each scenario. Iran’s software entrepreneurs can map the priorities of the business model elements in designing the specific revenue model and value proposition of their own company. Other contexts can utilize the method to unfold the best business model choices.

Keywords: Scenario development; Business model; Software industry; GAHP.

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