By Sohail Inayatullah, Puruesh Chaudhary, Syed Sami Raza and Umar Sheraz
- SOHAIL INAYATULLAH – USED FUTURES AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
It was late January when four Pakistanis studying in China tested positive to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the disease known as COVID-19. Internally, the country reported its first two COVID-19 cases on February 26, 2020, both of which had returned from Iran. Pakistan, as of April 29, had reported 14,885 confirmed cases with 3,425 recoveries and 327 deaths.[i]
While the pandemic continues to spread, Pakistan faces other critical issues as well. For example, from 8 July to 12 November, there were 47,000 confirmed cases of dengue with 75 deaths. [ii] Moreover, twenty-four percent still live below the poverty line. [iii]
While in Islamabad in early March, I asked the guard at the SafaGold Mall why he did not have hand sanitizer or temperature scanners, as I had seen in Singapore. He stared at me with a puzzled look. I explained to him that COVID-19 was on its way to Pakistan. Another guard came by, and soon we had a conversation that went nowhere: they were ready for the Taliban and other extremists, not a virus. Geopolitics and the long war on terror had framed the national narrative. A virus is not an enemy, cannot be imprisoned, nor does it provide the opportunity to create patriotic songs that focus on national sentiments.
But the inter-generational memory of pandemics is there. A few years back, while asking about my mother’s family history, she told me that she had never met her grandmother. I was surprised and asked why; she told me she died in her late teens from the plague. The last plague epidemic in British India broke out in 1896, imported from Hong Kong.[iv] Eventually, over a 31-year period, 13 million died.[v] As the British attempted to control the plague, riots broke out across the country.[vi] What will happen this time if COVID-19 spreads? Moreover, is Pakistan at all prepared for such a spread?
Futurist Puruesh Chaudhary writes that not just COVID-19 but also climate change, internal and external debt, and other crises are coming. “In my work with Agahi and the Pakistan State of the Future Index, we suggested that a pandemic could re-occur in Pakistan. When we published a policy exercise, ‘The Future of Possibilities’ in 2019[vii], participants identified the emergence of a pandemic that could severely impact the country’s future.” However, futures work is still not seriously used in the corridors of institutional power. They are focused, as are most governments, on actions that ensure votes in the next elections.
Currently, Pakistan, like the rest of the world, is engaged in the “hammer and dance”[viii] strategy – that is, hit the pandemic hard with lockdowns and then as economic livelihood, mental health and travel become more important, go back and forth between restrictions and movement. However, the strictness of these lockdowns is being challenged, especially by the religious right.
Modeling remains unclear how many Pakistanis could potentially be affected by this virus. Chaudhary writes: “A huge population (nearly two hundred million), inadequate health care systems, capability gaps, lack of accountability, and our failure to imagine multiple possibilities is our biggest misfortune. There is a pattern to how Pakistan responds to crises, and this outbreak is no different. Many of the nation’s leaders are still rehashing used futures.” There is also complacency and a feeling of lack of agency. As a security guard commented: “What can we do about the Coronavirus? One can die of a heart attack. Death is inevitable, and it could come at any time.[ix]
So, given the current crisis, what is next? While we certainly cannot say what will happen, we can outline probable futures.
THE SAVIOUR
In the first future, it is external – another nation attacking or saving- that is paramount. Once it was, the USA was saving Pakistan. Now it is China with its face masks and public health strategies.[x] A year from now, it will be China that helps Pakistan recover from financial collapse. The International Monetary Fund will come to the rescue later. Five years from now, it may be a different country. But Pakistan will remain the child, always waiting for the elder to save him/her.
THE REVENGE
While forty years ago, the maulvis (clerics) occupied a minor space in Pakistani politics, today they are central to how reality is perceived. Their insistence on doing nothing, not allowing masjids to be closed, on using ignorance as a defense becomes the final straw. As one recently said: “Today, you all will shake each other’s hands before leaving the mosque. Perform namaz (prayers) standing shoulder-to-shoulder and ankle-to-ankle in the rows! If anyone amongst you contracts Coronavirus, shoot me in the middle of the street, and you will not be punished for that!”[xi] Said another: “It is all in the hands of Allah … we should fear God, not a pandemic.”[xii] Worse, the Pakistani state is unable to resist the power of the clerics. Indeed, “Even as the pandemic spread to the country, Pakistani authorities allowed tens of thousands of Islamic clerics from around the world to congregate for three days outside the eastern city of Lahore. Some 200 of the clerics are now quarantined at the site of the gathering, a sprawling compound belonging to an Islamic missionary group, Tableeghi Jamaat.”[xiii]
Eventually, the religious right is forever banished to a peripheral role in politics. Progressive values once again take hold; it will no longer be fact versus faith, but a nation focused on science, technology, and inclusive economic development.
EVERYONE IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION
Pakistan’s vision of the future is clouded, there is no unified identity. Me, myself and my tribe are most likely to dominate the agenda. Fragmentation will be the reality. Over the next six months, we can anticipate riots throughout the nation as poverty worsens and conflicts between the religious right and others increase. This will most likely lead to direct military rule, a return of to the civilian-military pendulum of governance.[xiv] The military will impose law and order. This will continue over the next few years. Looking back, Pakistan’s response was “too little, too late.” Power politics, poverty, and traditional ways of seeing the future were all complicit.
2. PURUESH CHAUDHARY – TECHNO PAKISTAN AND THE AWAKENING
In this future, the young make a massive push towards the digitalization of the economy. The 4th Industrial Revolution creates real change. Entrepreneurs and small business owners increasingly rely on using technology to enhance productivity and consumer experience, setting a better balance between work and life. This group of energetic young Pakistanis enables meaningful economic opportunities. 5G technologies create more jobs. They are not only leading a movement on flattening the curve but also paving the way for a future-centric ecosystem. Baby boomers and Gen X see the shift and join the bandwagon. Notions around platform cooperativism gain momentum. Ministries and regulators start using a systems-based approach to integrate databases for anticipatory governance. Imagination and creativity become the core function for all future R&D investments.
As technologies continue to transform, geopolitics becomes less of a defining factor, and public health and equity become foundational. Political parties work together as the national emergency is so grave, during, and after COVID-19. No-one can go it alone. Landlordism and the military become far less important. Instead of nationalism, South Asia and regionalism become defining. Instead of searching for enemies, Pakistan searches for partners, within and without. Women gain inequity, as do the poor.
- SYED SAMI RAZA – DOOM AND GLOOM
The people are depressed. PTSD cases increase. At present, the people don’t believe that the government can control the pandemic or that it is at all serious about doing so. This situation of doom and gloom exacerbates. Some of the reasons include the political and economic situation in the country. On the political level, the people feel helpless because they have tried several political parties and not a single one delivered. In this future, trust in party politics is lost.
On the economic side, severe depression has already started. We know from the global economic depression of the late 1990s as well as from the depressions of the post-war and interwar periods that it takes quite some time for the economy to pick back up again. This time the depression will be greater as it is global in scope. All production channels worldwide have come to a stop. It could take years before the depression is over, but by then, it will have left the local economy of the country devastated. The industrial and services sector will shut down. It will take years for systems to get going again. By then, hundreds of thousands of people in the private sector will have lost jobs. Unemployment, poverty, and crime rates will increase. Global production will also shut down, and therefore there won’t be enough resources to fulfill local needs. Violence against women will also dramatically increase.
The economic depression will not just to deepen because of the pandemic, but also because of the increasing control of information. The establishment of the Command and Control Authority and government’s control over information is already raising suspicions among the people of the increasing power of the state. Information control will be used in calculating ways. It will be used as a way to bring in donations, aid, debt rescheduling, waivers, and so forth.
In this future, the legitimacy of political leaders, the Army, and the economy disappears. However, the nation does not break apart as all are too tired to resort to any dramatic action. Doom decreases the capacity to act.
- UMAR SHERAZ – COMPETING NARRATIVES AND SOLUTIONS
Narratives have huge persuasive power and strongly influence how people and nations think and act. Flawed historical narratives seduce nations into thinking, creating value, and justifying a particular course of action. The course of Pakistani history, present (and eventually the plausible future) has consistently fixated around two narratives. The first narrative is that of war. We are a nation that has always been at some sort of war. Our neighbor across the border has been our favorite punching bag, but we have forever been at war with more than them: the war against the infidels (Jihad), the war against terrorism, war against inflation, against corruption (Ehtesaab) and war for change (Tabdeel). It comes as no surprise, then, that current efforts against the coronavirus have been anointed the “War against COVID 19”. In a recent interview, Dr. Peter Black discussed how the usage of the war metaphor discounts or limits the number of options that become available to address the challenge.[xv] Sadly, the biggest casualty of war is the human capital, which then becomes the fuel of the engines of war.
The second narrative is the term “opportunity,” and I cannot think of any time in recent memory when any Pakistani leader has not talked about the “opportune moment” to act as the nation is “at a crossroads.” This, in itself, is problematic as people who see opportunities eventually become “opportunistic.” Once that happens, there is scant regard for alternative ways of thinking, and they eventually become the monster that they set out to fight. At a time when the leading thinkers discuss a global reset button, the narratives instilled in our national psyche remain the biggest hurdle in the whole nation coming together and moving towards a unified vision, a preferred future.
COUNTER-NARRATIVES FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE
The foreseeable future will be driven by these two narratives of opportunity at once a narrative has taken hold; they can be very difficult to shake off, at least until an even more compelling counter-narrative is introduced. Instead of war metaphors, there are other narratives that are much more useful for us in thinking about our preferred future. We could talk about the “Coronavirus movement,” similar to the Pakistan movement, which united all and sundry towards a common goal and cause. The other change in the narrative could be putting “Pakistanis before Pakistan,” instead of the other way round. “Opportunity” needs to be replaced by the possibility to accommodate other world views, experimentation, and backup plans in case of failure. The goal would be to make a post-corona Pakistan more humanitarian, rather than a victim of opportunistic wish lists. There is already a narrative that says that Pakistan is considered one of the most generous societies in the world – what is called the Law of Generosity. “We Pakistanis believe that one good deed begets another, and perhaps our generosity will spread faster than the virus. Armed with the unwavering belief that humanity at large will benefit, we are trying our best to provide a cushion to those who need assistance – and hope to those who need hope.”[xvi]
ACTION PLANS FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE.
At the systemic level, there are a few things that need to be sorted out in the march towards a preferred future.
- The coronavirus is exacting a heavy toll on health systems and personnel. In Pakistan, there is a different kind of predicament: there are about 85,000 “missing” “doctors-in-law” in Pakistan.[xvii] These 85,000 female doctors have completed their medical education at the expense of the state or privately, but they are not part of the medical workforce in Pakistan. They are victims of the “trophy wife” phenomenon. If only 50 percent of these doctors are mobilized, 70 percent of health issues of people in low-income communities can be resolved. Unfortunately, this is an issue that has not been voiced in the current drama, which is a criminal mistake made by the media and intellectuals. Our medical pipeline is bleeding profusely, and applying a tourniquet quickly is the first step in rehabilitating our medical system, which will be under tremendous stress and short of professionals in the Corona Movement.
- The current Prime Minister came to office with the slogan of universal quality education in the country, for all. The plan ran into issues with all stakeholders and just seemed to have fizzled out like any other electoral promise. The current predicament has brought all sorts of education systems in Pakistan (Montessori, Madrassa, government, elitist, right-wing) to a standstill and forced them to move online. As all education systems are now looking toward the government for direction and assistance, this the right time to make sure all educational systems are on the same page. This will bring the poorest of the poor in Madrassas and government schools on par with elitist schools in a uniform curriculum and uniform code of quality and pave the way for a unified vision of the future.
- As a general rule, governments around the world have failed the poor and the underprivileged. This is starker in developing countries like Pakistan, where the bottom of the food chain has been left to fend for themselves. Seventy percent of Pakistan’s economy is informal and undocumented. In these times of hardship, it is the networks of trust and informal networks of mutual assistance that have held the fabric of society together. A witch hunt against these networks was initiated in the aftermath of 9/11, with no clear evidence of financial wrongdoing. Twenty years later, it is time to honor and legitimize these networks.
- Move the ideas of pro-poor foresight and frugal innovation from the level of slogans and academic discourse to real-life practice (Kapoor, 2001).[xviii] COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that foresight and innovation tend to happen for those who can afford it. Both institutions have been found wanting in this time of global strife. In a post-corona world, this needs to change. More inclusive models of foresight and innovation need to be experimented with and embraced.
About the Authors
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, at USIM, Professor at Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate Professor, Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne. He can be reached at sinayatullah@gmail.com.
Puruesh Chaudhary is a futures researcher and strategic narrative professional. She is the Founding President of AGAHI.
Dr. Syed Sami Raza is an assistant professor in political science at the University of Peshawar. He is the editor of the Journal of Review of Human Rights.
Umar Sheraz is the blog editor of the Journal of Futures Studies and can be reached at umar_sheraz@yahoo.com. He works at the Centre for Policy Studies at COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan.
References
[i] See Realtime Pakistan and Worldwide COVID-19 situation! (n.d.). Retrieved April 29, 2020, from http://covid.gov.pk/
[ii] Dengue fever – Pakistan. (2019, December 12). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from https://www.who.int/csr/don/19-november-2019-dengue-pakistan/en/
[iv] Plague – Medical History of British India – National Library of Scotland. (n.d.). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from digital.nls.uk website: https://digital.nls.uk/indiapapers/plague.html
[v] Epidemiological Studies of Plague in India. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2555600/pdf/bullwho00328-0149.pdf
[vi] Ira Klein, “Plague, Policy and Popular Unrest in British India,” Modern Asian Studies. Vol. 22, No. 4, 723-755.
[vii] Chaudhary, P. (n.d.). Pakistan 2029 – Policy Exercise. Pakistan State of Future Index. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/41497049/Pakistan_2029_-_Policy_Exercise
[viii] Pueyo, T. (2020, March 23). Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from Medium website: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
[ix] Welle, D. (n.d.). Coronavirus: Is Pakistan taking COVID-19 too lightly? | DW | 18.03.2020. Retrieved April 4, 2020, from DW.COM website: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-is-pakistan-taking-covid-19-too-lightly/a-52824403.
[x] China sends medical aid to Pakistan to combat virus outbreak. (2020, March 28). Retrieved April 4, 2020, from CityNews Edmonton website: https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2020/03/28/china-sends-medical-aid-to-pakistan-to-combat-virus-outbreak/
[xi] Covid-19 is killing Pakistan’s economy. (2020, March 24). Retrieved April 29, 2020, from Economic Times Blog website: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/covid-19-is-killing-pakistans-economy/
[xii] Hadid, D. (n.d.). Pakistan Calls Off Limits On Mosque Attendance In Time For Ramadan. Retrieved April 25, 2020, from www.wrvo.org website: https://www.wrvo.org/post/pakistan-calls-limits-mosque-attendance-time-ramadan
[xiv] Sohail Inayatullah, “The Betrayal of Dreams,” review of Syed Abidi’s Social Change and the Politics of Religion in Pakistan in Pakistan Progressive (Summer 1990).
[xvi]Imtiaz, A. (n.d.). The law of generosity combatting coronavirus in Pakistan. Retrieved April 13, 2020, from www.bbc.com website: http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200331-the-law-of-generosity-combatting-coronavirus-in-pakistan?fbclid=IwAR3VNO08bIU5VjLfFGO-T0nNeWf75epNWguJIgj-BpDz11338TQjzcj-74o.
[xvii] 85,000 female doctors in Pakistan not working after getting education.’ (n.d.). Retrieved April 25, 2020, from www.thenews.com.pk website: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/469205-85-000-female-doctors-in-pakistan-not-working-after-getting-education.
[xviii] Rakesh Kapoor, “Future as fantasy: forgetting the flaws.” Futures 33, (2) (2001): 161-170.
