By Sohail Inayatullah, Sunniya Durrani-Jamal, and Sonia Chand Sandhu
In late 2019, the Asian Development Bank (2020)[i] facilitated a Futures foresight workshop (Kanagaraj 2019) to map out complimentary pathways to the development of Cambodia’s vision 2030 (to become an upper middle income country) and eventually Vision 2050 (to become a middle income country). [ii] As it was a one day workshop, we focused on a variant of the Six Pillars process (Inayatullah, 2015) using in particular Causal Layered Analysis, Scenarios, Visioning and Backcasting. The intent was to enhance futures literacy in the nation and articulate areas that the Asian Development Bank and the government of Cambodia could work together. While there were numerous research areas, the role of women, technology, and economic diversity stood out.
WOMEN AND THE FUTURE
Given that currently there are 94 men to every 100 women in the country, in terms of growth can women go from being garment manufacturing workers to 50% of executives in government and business? Executives from the Cambodia government asked this and other questions not only for reasons of equity, but also for optimization. They knew that Cambodia could not become a wealthy nation, an efficient nation, a fairer nation unless females rose to the ranks of leadership. Current research, including from the IMF certainly supports this.[1] Moreover, we know from data on start-ups (Council 2015) and financial firms that females on the whole perform better than their male counterparts.[iii] Whether this is because they can manage the economy better in turbulent times or because they are more cautious it is not clear. We do, however, know that gender equity is a pre-requisite to a prosperous society. To shift Cambodia, to make the change, first the future needs to be imagined. Thus, the image of the future was that of a woman leader leading a political rally of men and women in contrast to a man overseeing a factory filled with female garment workers This is contrast to today where the main KPI is number of shirts produced.
Table : Women’s Leadership in Cambodia
| Litany or description | Shirts produced per day | Number of women in leadership |
| The System | Rules-based, low status | Diverse work opportunities
Political and social empowerment |
| The Worldview | Industrial economy | Knowledge economy |
| The Metaphor | Garment worker = a woman | Leader = a woman |
Diversity of gender roles was not the only issue that they saw changing in the decades ahead if Vision 2030 was to be achieved. The economy needed to diversify, knowledge innovation was necessary, and governance needed to transform through transparency and technology. Indeed, they saw these changes as working together to create a possible transformation towards a Digital Economy.
E-MONK TO THE E-BUDDHA
While the foresight workshop was conducted in English, the metaphors that were used to describe the change were localized. For example, participants imagined the new governance system as E-Buddha – that is a system that was for the good of all. The current information technology system in Cambodia was considered complicated, paper-based and for the good of the local organization. It was like a room full of monks and nuns. In the e-Buddha world, administrative processes would serve the nation, be paperless and easy to use. They would need to be on open platforms, allowing different systems to access and change the parameters.
This would be quite a shift from the current system, which was more like a c-drive, private and divided by silos.
| Litany description | Complicated | Simple and efficient |
| The System | Paper and C-drive | Paperless with an open platform |
| The Worldview | For the government department | For the Nation |
| Metaphor | E-Monk | E-Buddha |
The E-Buddha system would be wise, helping all Cambodians, making everyone’s life easier. But to what avail? How would the new administrative and technological system change the nation? In the view of participants, new information and communication technologies would assist in the transition to a more effective system. The technology is already present with 98.5% of the population using the Internet or around 15.8 million people.[iv] Facebook alone has seven million users. The bureaucracy, while active users of Facebook for communication, in particular, needed to transform services, using new technologies to decentralize.
ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
But it was not just the administrative sector that needed to change, the economy also needed to shift from being city and manufacturing-based to becoming far more diversified. Citizens too needed to be trained for the technological disruptions ahead – soft and hard skills. Foreign investment was needed so the economy could move from being a tree that was giving fruit to an entire forest with multiple industries.
| Litany | City-based | Decentralized |
| The System | Manufacturers | Many industries, so as to attract investors |
| The Worldview | Poverty reduction | Wealth creation |
| Metaphor | Tree | Forest |
Participants felt if woman were empowered, governance became decentralized, paperless, far more efficient – whole of government, citizen and business – than it could help Cambodia truly transform, moving from a hopping frog to a leaping tiger.
MAKING THE VISION REAL
But for this vision to occur, used futures (Inayatullah 2008) needed to be challenged. These are strategies that no longer work, but we continue them. Participants asserted that the main used future was the Cambodian mind-set. It was reactive, rigid, formal, and risk-averse. It was this historical weight that would not allow innovation that could enhance well-being and prosperity. This was especially so given how new technologies were challenging traditional knowledge and bureaucratic structures.
As one group suggested, “we want a smart governance system that is open and sustainable, has on-line public services has a great ITC infrastructure, and ensures excellent communication between the government and citizens and government and the private sector.
But how to get there? Using the methodology of backcasting wherein the future is imagined and then steps to realize this future articulated, participants recommended the following.
- By 2023, there is a Minister for ICT
- By 2025, near full literacy in the nation
- By 2025, a nationwide ICT infrastructure system
- By 2026, a system to evaluate what is working and not working in e-governance
- By 2027 a fully functioning agile cyber-security system
- By 2028, cost savings from the ICT revolution are visible
- By 2029, enhanced gender equity, possible as work ICTs are not gender-based
- By 2030, with a decade of data collection, the beginning of evidence-based policymaking.
- By 2030, Cambodia receives an award for e-government
- By 2035, women are visible leaders in Cambodia
The backcast showed that the drivers creating a different future were education, information and communication technologies in governance, and the empowerment of women. Each factor/driver works with the other drivers synergistically creating a new Cambodia. Investment in these areas as well as anticipating action learning projects in these areas needed to be prioritized.
CONCLUSION
While with some groups, variation and outliers are most important, with this group of senior leaders gaining convergence on the vision was critical. The backcast, in particular, helped make futures a practical exercise. Overall, the futures process helped break silos and create a shared vision. Next steps include funding participation action research projects with ADB grants as well as ensuring that futures thinking becomes a formal part of public sector knowledge coursework.
About the Authors
Sonia Chand Sandhu is an environmental engineer, urban resilience and sustainable development specialist with the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department. at the Asian Development Bank
Sunniya Durrani-Jamal is the Country Director of the Cambodia Resident Mission of the Asian Development Bank
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, at USIM, Professor at Tamkang University, Taiwan and Associate Professor, Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne.
REFERENCES
Asia Development Bank. 2020. Futures thinking in Asia and the Pacific. Why Foresight Matters for Policymakers. Manila: Asia Development Bank.
Council J. 2015. Research shows benefit of women in startup management teams. IBJ. https://www.ibj.com/articles/55357-research-shows-benefit-of-women-in-startup-management-teams. Accessed 27 April 2020.
Inayatullah, S. 2008. Six Pillars: Futures Thinking for Transformation. Foresight. Vol. 10, No. 1), 4-28.
Inayatullah, S. 2015. What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight. Tamsui: Tamkang.
Kanagaraj, P. 2019. ADB hosts future learning workshop. Khmer Times. 24 September 2019.
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50645768/adb-hosts-future-learning-worksh. Accessed 30 April 2020.
[1] IMF. 2019. Finance and Development – Women and Growth. Washington. D.C.
[i]. Dr. Susann Roth was the lead editor for this text. She works in the area of innovation at knowledge management at the Bank.
[ii] https://www.khmertimeskh.com/608573/cambodias-development-vision-for-a-progressive-inclusive-and-sustainable-society/.Accessed 27 April 2020.
[iii] https://www.creditsimple.com.au/content/Credit_Simple_AU_State_of_the_Nation_Oct2019.pdf. Accessed 27 April 2020.
[iv] https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1719527/internet-users-in-cambodia-near-16m. Accessed 27 November 2019.
