by Jost Wagner & Sohail Inayatullah
What are the futures of the Asia-Pacific region? What might the region look like in a decade? How can futures thinking be used to transform the nature of strategy and policymaking? Over 150 futurists, policymakers, and academics met in Bangkok for the 5th Annual Asia-Pacific Futures Network Conference to explore these and other questions. Topics included the possibility of an Asian Confederation, emerging pandemics, the importance of horizon scanning for security forces, and the need to build risk assessment into scenarios and preferred futures.
APFN in Bangkok
For the second time, the 5th Asia Pacific Futures Network Conference was held in Bangkok on September 17-18, 2019 (Sharpe, Marharjan, Wagner, 2019). This time the conference took a three-track approach catering practitioners in the field, academic researchers and government leaders
The 2019 conference sought to understand the changing futures of Asia with a focus on ASEAN 2030 (Asian Development Bank, 2014). The thematic areas for the conference were economy, knowledge, and security. Questions posed to speakers and participants included: Based on current trends, what might the region look like in a decade? What are emerging issues and disruptors that could take change this trajectory? And what are the alternative futures of ASEAN and the broader Asia-Pacific region (Inayatullah and Na, 2018)?
As the APFN is a peer-to-peer learning conference, organizers ensured an extended space for networking and through interaction, genuine knowledge sharing (Cruz, Sweeney, and Ali, 2016). The organizers of the conference also intended to increase the profile of the work futurists are doing in the ASEAN region.
On behalf of the APFN, the conference was organized by expert facilitator and futurist Jost Wagner of Change Initiative in partnership with the National Innovation Agency with additional support and inputs from other organizations such as the Asian Development Bank and Ananda Development as venue partner
Image 1: Conference Director Jost Wagner, Photo courtesy of NIA/The Change Initiative (TCI)
This short report will not present the perspectives of every speaker but instead will highlight selected speakers and their insights The main focus is on disruptions and risk and the role of futures thinking and futurists.
Big Dogs Seldom Live Past A Decade
Chor Pharn Lee, Principle Strategist at the Centre for Strategic Studies and Strategy Group, the Government of Singapore, delivered the opening keynote. He set the stage for the exploration of recent history and the present as tools for developing alternative scenarios for preferred futures. “I wanted to get the audience to think about decades differently, first starting with the past and then looking into the future. Like warmup exercises,” said Lee.
Lee took the audience on a journey through past decades starting from the 1980s, where prominent beliefs about the “way the world is” turned out to be fallacies. He asked, standing at the dawn of 2020, what should we be thinking? What should we bet on? The prominent belief would certainly be technology as the top economic performer, but should it be? He asked. He suggested that knowledge with our 20/20 hindsight how things unfolded, and perhaps we should scrutinize what is not seen at the surface level.
Lee quipped that, since “Decade-long big trends might be like massive dogs – they seldom live past their first decade.” Therefore, Malthusian scarcity or Ricardian expansions are the consensus for the next decade, perhaps the lenses through which we view the way the world is and inform our actions are at the very least smudged by the tendency by which we “humans easily anchor to immediate events like prices.” This tendency also renders us “lousy at reappraising fundamentals and changing our views.” Perhaps a visit to the optometrist for a new prescription altogether would cure us, he suggested.
Lee presents the idea that we can “see the future in the present” by finding and connecting with the 17% of the population who see the world differently before they perceive that the other 83% of society “condemns them as deviants.” These outlines can be found and connected within the “dark forests of the Internet” using channels like podcasts, newsletters, and slack channels that can foster revolutionary thought. Thus, he suggested we should not assume that the past will be an accurate predictor of the emerging future.
The subsequent panel discussion continued the focus on disruptions though at a regional level.
Image 2: Panelists Dr. Natalie Phaholyothin (Moderator), Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Dr. Susann Roth, Lloyd Vatanakovaran, Rushdi Rahim, Photo courtesy of NIA/TCI
Why No Unicorns in Thailand
Executive Director of Ananda Development, Lloyd Vatanakovarun, described his organization’s observation of current and emerging trends that helped them foresee people in the future not having any fixed assets. Lloyd Vatanakovarun acknowledged that in terms of the policy, Thailand is five to ten years behind others in terms of disrupting the future. However, he believes the nation can catch up. His work with Ananda 2.0 leadership is geared towards transforming the organization to catch the wave of disruptive technologies and create new businesses. He posited that in Thailand, data scientists are a scarce resource. You don’t see any unicorns coming out of Thailand like Jack Ma or Elon Musk.” However, we have a responsibility to change this, working specifically with youth.
Just Go – Foresight In Malaysia
Rushdi Rahim, Senior VP of MIGHT lent some insight into the success of Malaysia 2020 and the impact of recent political developments, noting that as a result, Malaysians now share a shared vision for what they want for society and the nation. Rahim is confident that Malaysia is “well-placed in terms of being ready. We’re in a perpetual state of readiness. We’re always ready, but we’re not going anywhere!” So if there is an insight to offer, “The insight is just to go! Or, like Nike said, ‘Just Do It!’. I see Futures Spaces like a Marvel movie, we all have our own spaces, but when we work together, we assemble into a blockbuster like the Avengers movie.”
By supporting the advancement of competency in high technology, MIGHT, and myForesight® are helping to create a nation of entrepreneurs that will lead Malaysia out of the middle-income trap through their innovative ideas and by venturing into unchartered territories.
Collaborative Futures
Dr. Susann Roth of the Asian Development Bank concluded this session wonderfully summing up the overall insights from the panel when she said:
“The collaborative approach is what will optimize the efficacy of futures and foresight capacities in the panellists’ organizations and their countries’ planning for their preferred futures. A consensus among all participants is that, though the regions are very diverse, they face similar development challenges, and there need to be collective ideas on various futures among ASEAN member nations.” That describes her strategy at the ADB, where she is working on moving the bank from an infrastructure bank to a knowledge bank (Asian Development Bank, 2020).
Image 3: Graphic Recording by Sukumal (Joy) Surichamorn
Where to Invest?
Given the above general analysis of the future, what should be done? Michael Jackson, who runs his Shaping Tomorrow venture from the Philippines, suggested the following. The ASEAN region has some key players seizing opportunities and minimizing risks by investing in:
- Reducing GHG emissions
- Increasing clean water supply
- Improving sustainable infrastructure
- Mitigating climate change effects
- Automation wherever possible
- A continued emphasis on education
“In the face of big uncertainties and global alternatives like war and peace or growth and recession, scenario thinking is required, speed and agility are of the essence and cooperation between the Pan-ASEAN governments, and corporate leadership is the key,” he said.
For Jackson, the basics need to be done right so the region can invent alternative futures. But which future? Dealing with uncertainties is, of course, best done through scenarios. While there were numerous other workshops (for example, Nur Anisah, Marcus Anthony, Marc Lepage), perhaps one of the most relevant is Shermon Cruz’s work on scenarios and risk.
Futurevisions at Risk? How to Apply Risk and Resilience Thinking in Futures Workshops
Risks, like futures, are perceptual, perpetual, open, and plural. Both in theory and practice, they are critical to decision-making, leadership, and change management. Risk analysis and futures thinking are relevant and applicable to the strategic, tactical, and operational realms. Shermon Cruz, Director, and Futurist at the Center for Engaged Foresight argued that preferred or aspired futures are not risk-free or devoid of threats. “We seldom unpack the implicit risks and threats in our preferred visions or scan potential and possible risks and threats that might impact the way we imagine and perceive alternative, preferable and emergent futures.” He argued for the need to accentuate risk thinking in futures thinking workshops and practice. He offered three recommendations: (1) Stress test the preferred scenario or futures by developing a scenario tabletop exercise to test the resiliency and continuity of preferred futures or visions. “Are your future visions at risk?” he asked.”How might a preferred future evolve, continue in the event of a crisis? If the future is open, then we must subject the preferred futures to some sort of a resiliency test. The intent is to test fast, fail fast to adapt quickly”. (2) Map the external risks or the external stories that might impact the aspired futures, or that might disrupt the inner story of your preferred futures. And (3) Identify and deliberate potentially adaptive worldviews; identify and discuss agile strategies and solutions to create an elastic and anti-fragile futures.
Dr. Peter Black presented a specific example of a risk we needed to address. He focused on the futures of pandemics.
Pandemics and Early Warning Systems
Futures argued Black, has many dimensions, but at the core is an early warning system – a risk mitigation process and strategy. As a foresight practitioner and veterinary epidemiologist, Dr. Peter Black warned us of upcoming pandemics (Sheraz, 2020). He said zoonotic diseases were likely to emerge, and we need to be ready (Inayatullah and Black, 2020).
Black highlighted critical biosecurity threats:
• Population Growth
• Economic Growth
• Growing Middle Class
• Increasing Travel
• Increasing Resource Consumption
• Land Use Change
• Decreasing Biodiversity
• Climate Change
With a focus on global hotspots for emerging zoonotic diseases like Ebola, MERS, SARS, Zika, Yellow Fever, influenza viruses, and African Swine Fever as the drivers for our biosecurity threats, Black’s inclusion of a global flight path map was a perfect example of just how mobile humans are today and consequently, how probable it is that the region- and the world at large- will face massively destructive biosecurity threats with greater frequency. “What will happen then to these flight paths,” he asked” Less than a year later, we know what has happened to the aviation industry.
Black was undoubtedly correct as now we live in a COVID-19 world.
Risks from Organized Cybercrime
Warnings came from Interpol as well.
Image 4: Anita Hazenburg, Photo courtesy of NIA/TCI
As part of the conference’s focus on security in the region and around the world, Anita Hazenburg provided insights into challenges faced by INTERPOL in their efforts to collaborate with the 196 member national law enforcement agencies effectively.
The center identifies security threats in a proactive manner rather than the traditionally reactive DNA of policing. In a world where criminals are increasingly using AI to capitalize on opportunities to threaten the peace, safety, and security of people around the world, the INTERPOL Innovation Centre emphasizes that innovation is a “need to have” and not just a “nice to have.”
To adapt to a rapidly changing world, the INTERPOL Innovation Centre led by its Futures and Foresight Lab have developed the Global Horizon Scan for Law Enforcement to identify trends and potential threats that could impact policing (https://www.interpol.int/en/How-we-work/Innovation/Global-Horizon-Scan, N.D).
As an example, she spoke on INTERPOL’s futures research on AI. She advocated for viewing for the use of AI ethically and effectively as opportunities for law enforcement to thwart the inevitable, farther-reaching, and increasingly dangerous threats from illegal use of AI.
As proposed next steps for law-enforcement agencies, Hazenberg highlighted INTERPOL’s initial suggestion for law enforcement is that more regions should practice and contribute to horizon scanning to be better prepared for and to improve the assessment of potential disruptions.
She completed her speech with a comparison between criminal opportunities and law enforcement opportunities AI and technology provide to both sides:
Image 5: Provided by Anita Hazenberg
An Optimistic View Of AI
Dr. Hyeojun Sun also focused on AI, presenting the findings of his research on how Artificial Intelligence will impact the lives of South Koreans in the future and whether it will expand or threaten human freedom in people’s lives.
South Korea ranks first in robot consumption, and its national vision is that of a human-centered intelligence information society. Their AI strategy aims to make the nation a top-four contender in AI by 2022. To realize this strategy, government agencies and major tech companies have received $2.1 billion in funding and intend to open up six new AI schools by 2020.
The research approach taken to compile data was a combination of literature review, intensive individual interviews, focus groups, and the adoption of smart home systems by a group of respondents. Dr. Sun’s findings were that the overall worldview and social discourse on Artificial Intelligence are of widespread optimism.
South Koreans believe AI will solve problems in society and are “digital idealists.” While they focus on the massive short-term benefits of AI, such as security, convenience, and wellbeing, and are overwhelmingly optimistic that it will improve human freedom and dignity, they tend to ignore the potential long-term negatives.
Image 6: Graphic Recording by Sukumal (Joy) Surichamorn
Futures in Action
How is the future best used in government strategy? This was answered by many, but perhaps most noteworthy was the work of Wee Shann Lam, the Chief Innovation and Technology Officer, Ministry of Transport, Government of Singapore.
Wee Shann Lam kicked off the second day of the conference with his presentation entitled “The Impact of Futures Thinking – Regional and Country Examples Policymaking and Future in Singapore.” He summarized the ever-evolving Singaporean success story spanning from when the city-state gained its independence in 1965 to their preferred futures of 2040. The near-ubiquity of foresight use across government agencies underpins Singapore’s ability to capitalize on opportunities and staunchly hold its place as a regional powerhouse, serving as a shining example to its ASEAN neighbors – and the world at large – on how to do futures.
Lam’s presentation illustrated how pivotal the role of the nation’s strategic planning in the transport and management of its ports has been in its development into a first-world economy in just one generation. Having formerly served as the Director of Communications and Community Engagement in the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Lam provided deep insights into Singapore’s ability to develop innovative eco-friendly technologies for its maritime and offshore industries and spoke briefly on the plans for the digitization of Maritime Singapore to sharpen its already competitive edge.
Although Lam’s title bears a specification in transport, the remainder of his presentation was a fascinating glimpse at the plans Singapore will implement to revolutionize further the role of foresight strategies in creating human-centered communities on the planet.
The Land and Transport Authority is an engineering-based organization that has built transport infrastructure – trains, buses, and roads – but has now expanded its reach deep into the community with plans to redesign towns to facilitate healthy lifestyle schemes. Lam explained that the LTA’s advocacy for transport that is public, shared, and activities will ensure transport in Singapore will be even faster, safer, more inclusive, and truly meet the diversifying needs of all its inhabitants. This will be achieved through increased walk/cycle/ride schemes, autonomous buses, and even autonomous shared vehicles.
Lam closed his presentation with a video of Singapore’s plans for truly purpose-built and fully inclusive communities in full deference to the preferred futures of the ways its people live, work, and move. It might seem counterintuitive to focus on the movement of people to get them to stay. Yet, Singapore proves time and again that their masterful use of foresight in policy planning long ensures their place at the helm of innovation and foresight application, beckoning their ASEAN neighbors to get on board and help bolster the region’s rapid growth in these times.
Image 7: Wee Shann Lam, Photo by Sohail Inayatullah
The Structure Of Organizations
Theresa Mathawaphan, Chief Strategy Officer, National Innovation Agency, Thailand, suggested that to be futures ready, organizations needed to change their structure. To provide insights on how Thailand is utilizing Futures Thinking methodologies, Theresa Mathawaphan shed some light on the measures the nation is taking to address three of its most pervasive problems and emerging issues: air quality, flooding, and Thailand’s imminent designation as a full-fledged aging society in fewer than 20 years.
Mathawaphan argued that real transformation would come through the application of foresight, strategic design, and risk management tools used to assess the challenges pragmatically the country faces and set about overhauling policies.
However, it is not just foresight that is critical but changing the nature of governance to make it non-bureaucratically structured and data-driven. Mathawaphan concluded by presenting the landscape of Futures Studies in Thailand as flourishing and increasingly diverse with the National Innovation Agency at the center promoting and facilitating the transition to Thailand’s new way of thinking about Thailand Futures.
Image 8: Theresa Mathawaphan, Photo courtesy of NIA/TCI
The Structure of Organizations
The conference concluded with a presentation on the role of futurists. “Can Futurists Be Super Heroes?” was the question Inayatullah asked, echoing Rushdi Rahim’s earlier provocation.
Image 9: Sohail Inayatullah, Photo Courtesy of NIA/TCI
Inayatullah’s address was inspired by the Infinity Stones that appear in Marvel Comics, each named after and representative of a different characteristic of existence (Inayatullah, 2019). Possession of any single stone grants the user to command whatever aspect of life it represents, whether that be the Soul, Time, Space, Mind, Reality, or Power Gem. Thus, in the latest Marvel blockbuster: Avengers: The Infinity Wars, there was a harrowing race to stop Thanos from obtaining all six Stones and decimating half of the universe with a single snap of his fingers. Inayatullah posited that ” a large portion of the world’s prime ministers behave like Thanos. They are collecting the stones.”
As the shadow of Fascism has spread from small pockets of the globe to consuming entire nations, the “leaders” of the formerly “Free World” continued to emulate the power-hungry Thanos. They collect the following stones:
- The Climate Change extinction Stone which will cause utter destruction
- The Inequity Stone which since the Reagan Revolution has caused a dramatic rise in inequity within and among nations
- The Domination Stone which is enacted by stationing one culture above and another below and rendering one gender more valued than any other
- The Over Nature Stone where Nature is viewed as an externality to exploit
- The Identity Stone that rears its ugly head in the recent and widespread rise of nationalism, the proliferation of dangerous religious fundamentalism and self-centered human culture that puts the needs of the individual above all else, no matter the cost.
Though these are the realities of the present day and the challenges are enormous, Inayatullah suggests that: “Maybe Thanos is wrong. Maybe there are alternative futures. Maybe we can stop them. The first step is saying that the future is not inevitable. We need to create our alternative stones to stop the dystopianism of Thanos”.
Inayatullah suggested the following:
1. The first alternative stone or antidote is neohumanism (Sarkar, 1981). This is moving away from nationalism to humanism plus nature.
2. The second stone is that of deep transformative leadership. This is termed sadvipra leadership (Sarkar, 1988).
3. The third stone is the productivity revolution. This can occur through meditation, a change in the structure of capitalism through cooperatives, and artificial intelligence (Inayatullah and Na, 2018). This stone can unlock the answers to some of the most persistent issues by creating better working conditions, more cooperatives, and shared ownership and effectively using new technologies to mitigate and provide solutions to plaguing problems. He offered a few examples of the vast unrealized potential of Artificial Intelligence and how it can be used to reduce food waste, monitor energy use and minimize over-consumption and revolutionize healthcare by predicting mental illness and driving the 5P healthcare revolution (Deloitte, 2016)). The productivity revolution will ensure we all continue to rise together as we create wealth within the confines of natural and societal limits.
4. The fourth stone is the transition to a green economy. This entails peer-to-peer energy cooperatives, completely transitioning from carbon to solar and other alternative forms of energy.
5. The fifth stone is global governance and the creation of an Asian Confederation. There are financial advantages to integration, and the survival advantages lie in the challenge to the tribal story of danger with the new story of safety in unity for Asia and the planet.
6. The sixth stone is futures thinking and foresight. Futurists can help in this transition to a better world through methods and tools of the field. “We can tell the new stories and rethink strategy, ” said Inayatullah (2020). In the movie, Thanos is defeated through time. This is what futurists can offer, a different way of seeing time, using the future to change today.
Conclusion
The 5th APFN was a major step forward in creating a dialogue between futurists and policy makers (Brodsky, 2019). A strong presence by interested decision makers from the public and private sector enriched the formal and informal conversations taking place during the conference. Participatory formats such as conducting an Open Space session and a conducive physical environment helped to bring the APFN conference to another level as a meaningful platform for knowledge sharing, reflection and co-creation. The conference has led to a number of new foresight projects including a project on the futures of manufacturing in Egypt led by the United Nations, a project on climate change, air pollution and healthy eco-systems led by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and a national foresight initiative in the Philippines led by the Philippines Senate. The next APFN was initially planned for taking place in 2020 in Malaysia, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic the decision was taken to host the 6th APFN conference virtually in Manila by the Philippine Futures Thinking Society (PhilFutures) co-chaired by Shermon Cruz and Lizan Perante-Calina.
Image 10: Conference Location, Photo Courtesy of NIA/TCI
Authors:
Jost Wagner is Director of the Change Initiative, Bangkok, Thailand.
Email: jwchangeinitiative@gmail.com
Sohail Inayatullah is the inaugural UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies and a Professor in Futures Studies at Tamkang University. https://www.metafutureschool.org/
References
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Asian Development Bank. (2014). ASEAN 2030: Toward a Borderless Economic Community. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Brodsky, S. (2019). Turning the Futurist Fallacy into a (very near) future success. Journal of Futures Studies. 21 September 2019. https://jfsdigital.org/2019/09/21/turning-the-futurist-fallacy-into-a-very-near-future-success/
Cruz, S., Sweeney, J., and Ali, M. (2016). Flavors of Practice: Developing the Asia Pacific Futures Network. Journal of Futures Studies, 21(1): 93-104.
Deloitte (2016). Health Care Foresight: Identifying Megatrends. https://www2.deloitte.com/sg/en/pages/life-sciences-and-healthcare/articles/healthcare-foresight-megatrend.html#. Accessed 20 August 2020.
Inayatullah, S. (2019). Was Thanos Right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=U_kuuFLtIrc&t=582s. Posted by 21st Century Workshop. Accessed 20 August 2020.
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Inayatullah, S. and Nu, L. (2018). Asia 2030: Ten Disruptions That Change Everything. Tamsui: Tamkang University.
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Sarkar, P.R. (1981). Neohumanism: the Liberation of Intellect. Kolkata: Ananda Marga Publications.
Sarkar, P.R. (1988). Prout in a Nutshell. Kolkata: Ananda Marga Publications.
Sharpe, A. Marharjan, M. and Wagner. J. (2020). 5th Asia-Pacific Futures Network Conference in Bangkok, 17-18 September 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GrLTlU2xIM. Accessed 20 August 2020.
Sheraz, U (2020). Exploring Foresight, Epidemiology and the Coronavirus Pandemic with Dr. Peter Black. Journal of Futures Studies. 7 April 2020. https://jfsdigital.org/2020/04/07/exploring-foresight-epidemiology-and-the-coronavirus-pandemic-with-dr-peter-black/.
