by Otto C. Frommelt
The Coronavirus disease brought about a pandemic that has changed our lives and the way we conduct business beyond recognition. Right now, we are just at the beginning of a long journey into the future in a post-pandemic world. The objective of this article is to present an outlook of possible futures with regards to the impact on society, government and our business community. It includes practical and possible new business models focusing on a circular economy business environment. In the following, I will outline key drivers and sketch plausible scenarios.
Post-pandemic scenarios
Considering two key drivers of change, I identified four scenarios for the future that run as follows: Shut-In Economy, Global Health-ID, Circular Economy and Digital Leninism. Figure 1 outlines the two key drivers that are the ecosystem and health technology (or in short, HealthTech) developments.
Figure 1. by Otto C. Frommelt
In the next months and coming years, disruptive and innovative developments will require different responses to the global outbreak. In order to be prepared for a range of possible outcomes, the following scenarios are presented, and I believe that their consideration can serve as an outlet in supporting the process of finding flexible and resilient responses:
Shut-In Economy “Remote to stay“ (Scenario 1)
The answer to the pandemic so far was the lock-down of people and shut down of operations to limit the contagion. Home-office and home-schooling have become the new norm. As long as there is no vaccine, staying at home and limiting personal contact are some of the few protections against the pandemic. Hence, online business services will continue to grow and more business will go digital where feasible. Remote access and working is going to stay. The development will transition from “shut-in-home” to “shut-in economy[1]” (Smiley, 2020). Digitalization and AI will further drive the development of on-line products and (public) services.
Global Health-ID “New identity key a must“ (Scenario 2)
Not one’s passport, but one’s new global health-ID will provide clearance to enter a country or access facilities (Mozur et al., 2020). New services can also lead to decentralized identity (DID) management that simplifies the process of issuing legal personal documents. It is, however, crucial to enforce all data protection rights according to the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for the ecosystem participants, e.g. the individual that enters data should also control it. GDPR for privacy and security was put into effect by the European Union (EU) and is currently “the toughest privacy and security law in the world and it ensures a robust business environment with clearly defined rules and responsibilities” (GDPR, 2020).
Circular Economy “Sustainability inclusive“ (Scenario 3)
It is advocated that there is a need for a circular economy which would make sustainability inclusive. Having the necessary prerequisites, governmental policies and regulations (including CO2 tax and pricing models), new business models where sustainability is in focus will emerge. Digitalization can pave the way from „internet of things (IoT) to an economy of things (EoT)“ (IBM, 2020) where an integral and holistic ecosystem is constituting the heart. The ecosystem could be managed like a digital dossier (e.g. distributed ledger technology (DLT)) where all relevant information about the entire lifecycle of products and services are stored, for example in a blockchain (Oxford, 2019). The single point of contact could be the new global health-ID for the consumer and the digital business-ID for the seller. Figure 2 outlines the notion of a circular economy with blockchain technology.
Figure 2 by Otto C. Frommelt
Digital Leninism “AI Police as authority“ (Scenario 4)
In order to protect oneself from contagion, AI will become the health police and a digital leninism[2] approach is paving the way (Nass, 2019). This means that government, regional, and local authorities will know much more about a person than today. We can see this development in China or Singapore as the digital control has contributed to containing the spread of the virus (Lichfield, 2020). In Israel, the gathering and movement of persons have been controlled effectively by tracking citizens’ cellphone data. Further surveillance and access technology will become the new standard, allowing one to enter a facility, cinema, restaurant, or country. This is clearly the “big brother is watching you” world where everything is noted. Suspected or prospected activities will be considered by an algorithm utilizing machine learning and AI to the maximum. Depending on the political system and laws, the development will take place at different speeds.
Blockchain technology as opportunity
Considering the four scenarios, I suggest that blockchain technology can act as an enabler in ushering in these changes. Blockchain is characterized by decentralization, transparency and its tamper-resistant nature. Blockchain with its DLT allows individuals to work in a decentralized and democratized manner (Frommelt, 2020). Blockchain technology could be applied in the scenarios outlined, as a means to the (four possible) ends. In Scenario 1, blockchain could be utilized to trace and track the supply chain. In Scenario 2, blockchain would bring transparency to the global health-ID. Through the tokenization of data, overview and ownership to data for the individual materializes, while allowing the government to verify this data. In Scenario 3, blockchain would bring legal certainty, since the data is mutually agreed upon and verified. Blockchain would amplify the policing enabled by AI technologies, such as tracking, in Scenario 4, by time-stamping movements.
Blockchain Distributed Applications (DApps)
Many DApps that connect users and providers are currently emerging. Some examples and use cases for future DApps in the post-pandemic world that I identified, are: Digital business-ID, global health-ID, digital passport, bio access control, contact process mapping, health-to-go code, peer-to-peer transactions, and CO2 circular pricing and tax modules. Process tokens and smart contracts might be an integral part. Figure 3 illustrates future DApps in a post-pandemic environment.
Figure 3 by Otto C. Frommelt
Challenges ahead
In the transition to the post-pandemic future, there are also new challenges ahead. In addition to the new scenarios, a new governance model with a more circular culture and mindset needs to emerge (Figure 4). I purport that a post-pandemic future will require a new governance framework. Figure 4 presents a corporate governance matrix (CGM) where: i) HealthTech Governance is needed to manage new technology and ii) Ecosystem Governance is needed to manage new (circular) ecosystem business models.
Figure 4 by Otto C. Frommelt
Conclusion
In summary, blockchain technology is an enabler of change, constituting a bridge for a new circular ecosystem, business models and AI technology applications to emerge. In this vein, a radical transition for society, government and economy are underway to manage the post-pandemic environment and its challenges. A new way of living and working is becoming reality step-by-step. (Words 1090)
Author
Dr. Otto C. Frommelt, MBA is Director of the National Road Office at the Principality of Liechtenstein. Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ottocfrommelt/ Twitter: @DOCFTWEET Contact: otto.frommelt@llv.li
References
Frommelt O. C. (2020). 360° Vehicle Life Cycle Management with Blockchain Technology. IfM-Impulse, Institut für Management, Salzburg, Issue #18, p. 14-21.
GDPR.eu. (2020). GDPR Archives – GDPR.eu. [online]Available at: https://gdpr.eu/tag/gdpr/ [Accessed 10 July 2020].
IBM. (2020). The Economy of Things. [online]Available at: https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/report/economyofthings [Accessed 12 May 2020].
Lichfield, G. (2020). We’Re Not Going Back To Normal. [online]MIT Technology Review. Available at: <https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/17/905264/pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/> [Accessed 11 June 2020].
Mozur, P., Zhong R. and Krolik A. (2020). In Coronavirus Fight, China Gives Citizens A Color Code, With Red Flags. [online]Nytimes.com. Available at: <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china- coronavirus-surveillance.html> [Accessed 10 May 2020].
Nass, M. (2019). Digital-Leninismus. [online]Zeit.de. Available at: <https://www.zeit.de/2019/48/china-hongkong-ueberwachung-unterdrueckung-digital-leninismus> [Accessed 9 June 2020].
Oxford. (2019). Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme. Course outline. Said Business School, University of Oxford.
Smiley, L. (2020). The Shut-In Economy. [online]Medium. Available at: <https://medium.com/matter/the-shut-in-economy-ec3ec1294816> [Accessed 12 June 2020].
- The term “Shut-in Economy” was dubbed by Lauren Smiley (2020) in her article. ↑
- Example of the term is given by Matthias Nass (2019) in his article about “Digital Leninism”. ↑
