by Sarah Mecartney
When I was a child, I had a dragon named Figment from the Disney Epcot Centre’s, Journey of Imagination. Figment travelled everywhere with me. We explored the world together discovering multiple possibilities. I lost Figment along the way but rediscovered the power and joy of imagination with strategic foresight.
Futures has strengthened my ability to better make connections between imaginative thinking, creativity and practice in the strategic planning for organisational transformation space. Multiple futures tools can be used for individual needs but when connected they create greater impact. A key learning has been the importance of thoughtful and intuitive weaving together of methodologies and culture to design and create strategic pathways to achieve the future we want.
Figure 1:
The Disney fountains of imagination where the water jumps with joy.
Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand. (Albert Einstein)
Introduction
I work as a strategy adviser for a member owned international organisation for sustainable development. As a member of the Strategy, Performance and Learning team charged with overall strategy development and monitoring as well as consultations with member states and partner institutions, it was clear to me and to our team that participation in the Metafutures “Become a Futurist” course would support this work while also building our in-house capacity for ongoing application of the tool and skills acquired through the coursework.
The governing body of our organisation tasked my team with exploring futures to develop a robust 10-year organisational strategy over a two-year period (2020 – 2021). This thought leadership and courage for change influenced a new narrative and innovative thinking in the co-development of a strategic plan amidst disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We were motivated to develop a practice that blended futures literacy and systems approaches for transformational change. Our ambition was for an owned and robust strategic plan across the organisation and its members.
The “Becoming a Futurist” course enabled action learning and applied imagination (Osborn, 1953) for creative, yet pragmatic, ways forward. The unleashing of imagination enabled greater understanding of the flexibility of futures and of some fundamental shifts in the ways that authority, power, and resources are structured and flow in a particular system to determine the required actions to achieve a futures-ready organisation. With a trained mind, intentional or purposeful imagination can help us see future events as opportunities.
This paper will look at a selection of the tools from the course that were adapted and applied during the co-development of our strategic plan. This selection is based on tools that amplified inclusivity in the strategic planning process; nurtured creativity and imagination; and anchored creativity in practical ways forward:
- Horizon scanning
- Futures Triangle
- Causal Layered Analysis
- Backcasting
An open, participatory process has been central to the application of futures tools in the development of our strategic plan. That is, the systematic engagement of people to anticipate, imagine and create more sustainable, inclusive futures (Nesta, 2019). My team designed consultations that included all the organisations technical and corporate divisions and externally with our 26 members. It encouraged imagination and diverse perspectives by applying horizon scanning as a first step, then the futures triangle, causal layered analysis and backcasting. This helped to cast the net wide to develop a collective image of the future we want and to make better, more informed decisions. We were mindful of shaping a strategic plan that seeks a just and equitable transition to a transformed organisation and regional future.
Action learning through 19 participatory strategic workshops and numerous consultations engaged approximately 54% of staff and 61.5% of our members in the co-development of the strategic plan has documented the time, capabilities, and resources investments to inform the organisation’s Pathfinder Guide[1] to Foresight. In a COVID-19 and restricted mobility environment, there was a conscious recognition of creating engaging 2-hour consultation events; the utilisation of e-collaborative platforms and facilitation preparations (including content development) for results. Insights into the application of these tools in the operating context, as well as key lessons learned are outlined below.
Figure 2:
A summary sheet of engagement for the co-development of the organisation’s strategic plan. Image supplied by the Strategy, Performance and Learning Team, the Pacific Community.
Tools and their application for a Futures Fit organisation
Horizon scanning helped us to be more attentive to what is happening around us and to determine whether we were adequately prepared for change, future opportunities and threats. It is an effective tool for bringing together a diverse range of expertise and perspectives to better determine areas of focus to achieving a shared preferred future. We emphasised (as guided by the course) the cyclical actions of scanning, analysing, synthesising, and communicating information.
We combined horizon scanning with a brainwriting drivers of change activity that was specific to our organisation and region, drawing on the knowledge, skills and experience across our organisation using the STIR-DEEPER framework (Bradfield, et al. 2015). The seven categories for identifying drivers of change were: natural environment; demographics and society; built environment; technology and communications; resources, energy, and productive industry; economics; and politics.
This one-and-a-half-hour online activity was conducted with ConceptBoard, to better connect across multiple locations. 60 participants from multi-disciplinary backgrounds were invited to work both individually and collaboratively, and to withhold comments or critiques until the activity was complete. This activity highlighted the need for recognition and understanding of temporal perspectives and was very helpful as a conversation starter with colleagues and members. It also served as a mapping tool to determine how trends influence the organisation and the regional policy ecosystem. We identified that the forces driving change in the Pacific to inform strategic decision-making depend on how they interact and are framed and prioritised.
We produced 600 drivers of change across 49 virtual whiteboards which required synthesis into 13 core drivers[2] for a more manageable collection of influences on the organisation’s ambitions. Together, the collective wisdom of our staff provides a comprehensive collection of unique Pacific-focused drivers of change.
Figure 3:
A “word cloud” generated by the contributions from staff of driving forces having impact on the organisation. Image supplied by the Strategy, Performance and Learning Team, the Pacific Community.
In time, I hope to develop Pacific trend cards (for the organisation’s Pathfinder Pacific Guide to Foresight that builds on our lived experiences) with the aim to provide for more localised trends and metrics to assist Pacific planners and policy makers.
Horizon scanning needs to be performed consistently and effectively or it may languish. It needs to be combined with other futures tools to facilitate the identification of gaps and signals and to be presented in an accessible and user-friendly platform for on-going use by planners and policy makers. It requires time to synthesise and analyse contributions and integrate them into broader foresight processes for improved strategy and policy making.
The Futures triangle, is an easy to use tool developed by Sohail Inayatullah that builds on horizon scanning and maps current perspectives of the future through the three dimensions of weights, pushes and pulls. We applied the Futures Triangle at divisional, organisational and sectoral levels, and added contextual visuals and cultural conditions (e.g., ocean and waterways imagery) to encourage contributions across the organisation’s seven key focus areas of work. Our learning included a cultural view of the triangular weight as a positive anchor for transforming the future.
This tool risks remaining a static exercise if it is not integrated into a broader foresight activity. Given the objective of the activity to inform the organisational strategic plan, it was beneficial to reflect on and reconfirm the pulls of the future in subsequent activities. We repurposed each triangle back into the drafting of the strategic plan using the pulls and the pushes to further define the actions and navigations within our key focus areas of work. We used the Futures Triangle across several Pacific young people platforms (youth councils, emerging young professionals); tapped into 5 regional sectoral convenings; and opened up strategic processes to all staff members (including skilling up with foresight capabilities through the Metafutures ‘Become a Futurist’ course. The 2021 cohort includes 40 staff members that form the basis for the establishment of a futures Community of Practice within the organisation).
Common across these exercises were the centrality of people and their agency; and the inter-connectedness of actions and systems that provided for a bigger picture, and shared understanding. This approach assisted sense making of the interconnectedness of systems and to develop solutions that are effective, long lasting and sustainable.
Figure 4:
A snapshot of the 77 pushes, pulls, and weights for a futures ready fisheries and oceans sector. Image supplied by the Strategy, Performance and Learning Team, the Pacific Community.
We used the Futures Triangle for framing the future exercise at a Heads of Fisheries meeting convened by our Fisheries Aquaculture and Marine Ecosystems division. Over 60 minutes, some 70 participants were able to identify the pulls of the future, including science capabilities and effective partnerships/relations to create pathways for a resilient future. They recognised the pushes of integration and inter-operability of fisheries agencies and institutions, climate change impacts, and the importance of real-time data. Dynamic political agendas, climate change and inequitable access to resources were noted weights.
We found that this tool quickly and easily engaged people as it provided a platform to speak to one’s knowledge and expertise to define a preferred future. This was further supported by our contextualisation of the tool to create additional relevance and utility as we explored tensions between barriers from the past preventing change in the present and took deeper dives into the change required to reach the future. There is more to learn from this tool particularly as work on the democratisation of futures evolves and grows. Our efforts to provide an accessible and participatory approach can be improved through increased awareness of popular knowledge sharing platforms, and further exploration to better navigate barriers to accessibility.
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) helped refine our new strategic narrative with the participatory and shared analysis of four levels of analysis – the litany, social causes, worldview and metaphor and different ways of knowing. This tool, while initially daunting, proved integral to deepen our understanding of the future and facilitate more transformational thinking from participants. It recognised a layered narrative or story telling that resonates with our Pacific cultures. That is through ‘tok stori’ and ‘talanoa’ reinforcing a values-led and participatory approach to the development of the strategic plan.
We conducted seven CLA workshops, one for each of our key focus areas (as shown in the Summary Table). Each of these workshops engaged an average of 35 staff and member participants with diverse capabilities, perspectives and worldviews that reinforced a collaborative way of working in the 21st Century for development impact. These contributions have been documented on 7 consolidated ConceptBoards as evidence pieces for the organisation’s Strategic Plan. The futures metaphors provided the visual imagery in the organisation’s strategic plan for the key focus areas of work.
With practice, we formed an approach in which participants found comfort with terms which then gave way to constructive dialogue with a shared understanding of change. People of Pacific cultures found this to be a very comfortable tool and enthusiastically shared indigenous proverbs to navigate away from disused futures to more promising future states.
Table 1.
Summary Table of Organisational Transformation using CLA
| Descriptor | Litany | Systemic | Worldview | Metaphor |
| KFA 1 Resilience and climate action | Coordinated resilience knowledge systems | Pacific voices and solutions | Equitable optimisation of resources | Harmonic generosity of wisdom |
| KFA 2 Natural resources and biodiversity | Whole-of-island-state-approach | Interdisciplinary actions and decision making | Balance of power/agency | The Earth and I are One. The Ocean is us. |
| KFA 3 Food systems | Pacific recognition in global food systems | Systemic decision making | Food sufficiency and health | Bountiful baskets and canoes |
| KFA 4 Equity, education and social development | All people have access to well-being | Redesigned inclusive systems | Equity for everyone | Woven basket of well-being |
| KFA 5 Economies and Livelihoods | High levels of early adoption of novel technologies | Economic systems spread prosperity and well-being | Pacific leadership on learned best practices | O le la’au e toto nei mo taeao |
| KFA 6 Planetary Health | Health is measured by wellness and well-being | Risk informed, responsive health systems | Preventative health | Healthy mana |
| KFA 7 Transforming institutional effectiveness | Working as one (integrated collaboration) | Inter-connected multi-disciplinary approaches | Unified strengths for impact | Many weavers, one fine mat |
There was a distinct division between convergent (using logic) and divergent (using imagination) thinkers. Finding the preferences of lateral thinkers (thinking out of the box by using both convergent and divergent thinking) was a learning curve – one that we addressed with practical and relevant case studies as well as ensuring the freedom to explore cultural metaphors. Indigenous Pacific metaphors, mythologies and the art of story-telling further built the evidence-base for the strategic plan process. That is generating new and complex visions underpinned by an acknowledgement of intergenerational perspectives and recognition that ‘our future is in the past’ drawing on Tōfā Sā’ili[3] – that is, delving deeper into our values, providing authentic engagement platforms and promoting our world views and epistemologies to make sense of our realities and the context surrounding us. The importance of imagination was evident in the ability to generate alternatives, challenge assumptions and take on the perspective of others.
I found CLA to be a key strategic resource to navigate the uncertainty of the future alongside the utilisation of Pacific affinity with metaphors for change and transformation. Conducting these workshops on Conceptboard allowed for reference to past contributions, imaginings and shared knowledge. Placed against an organisational systems map, actors were able to see where and how they were involved in the process of change, as well as the relationships between them. This helped people to see how and where they could be part of the change.
Backcasting (Bibri, 2018) provided a means to use the seven new metaphors developed with CLA and identify key events, conditions and triggers that would be needed to reach this transformed future. We utilised the new metaphors and the pulls of the future to anchor our backcasting. We applied this across our seven key focus areas and identified five distinct strategic pathways for the implementation of our plan. These are: policy to action; data, statistics and information; innovation and research; digitilisation and technology; and capability and influence.
Figure 5:
A screenshot of the strategic plan’s seventh key focus area. Transforming institutional effectiveness. Image supplied by the Strategy, Performance and Learning Team, the Pacific Community.
Backcasting was a ‘bookend’ tool for the development of the strategic plan that brought in practical actions for realising our imagined, and preferred future state. Earlier findings from horizon scanning, the futures triangle and CLA provided an invaluable evidence chain for our future state. We still needed to challenge dominant perspectives for “working backwards” to identify what steps to take (or avoid). The 7 backcasting workshops utilised a ConceptBoard that combined the documented inputs from horizon scanning, futures triangle and CLA which assisted the identification of the ‘best paths’ to realising our future key focal area states. This helped to ‘ground’ and motivate lateral thinking for the articulation of proactive actions and investments for the strategic plan’s implementation pathways.
In one instance, we modified the tool through the creation of a speed-dating activity, requesting 26 participants to imagine themselves in retirement and reflect on key events that brought about the preferred future they were experiencing. The ‘gaming’ of the tool enabled the removal of constraints and active participation. This approach was reinforced with a clear explanation of the purpose of the activity and how it would be synthesised into practical steps and milestones – allowing participants to see the output and sense of the activity.
As a tool, backcasting is interactive and helped a diverse range of participants think critically, hear different perspectives and articulate their ideas in a low-risk setting. It enabled all voices to be heard and the facilitation of an agreed synthesis of inputs and key actions/milestones. An important tip is to ensure adequate time for synthesising inputs, and to be aware of potential additions from those not-in-the-room for the initial exercise.
These foresight tools have enabled the weaving of intelligence, aspirations, imagination and pragmatism for the co-creation of a robust and open ten-year strategic plan. Each tool has provided critical substance for a cumulative foresight narrative that focuses on actions required to achieve the future we want. It has signalled and motivated investment in organisational capabilities to achieve these goals through cultural shifts and systems strengthening.
The culmination of the use of these tools can be viewed in our strategic plan here. It is the organisation’s first strategy built by foresight and co-developed by staff and members. The utilisation of futures has helped us to foster ownership of the strategic plan as evidenced in a statement by the President of the Federated States of Micronesia.
Conclusion
Futures practice provides the “spark” for transformation. It has motivated the convening and connection of diverse groups, enabled divergent perspectives to be heard and created space for shared action and innovation for the co-development of a ten year strategic plan. It has inspired, courage and creativity for positive change. In our experience it brought a diverse organisation together to create bold action, an experience that will help us sustain the change needed for transformation.
We are encouraged by our abilities to build our future by design and not default. Social learning, trust, and ownership are key for applying strategic foresight to strategic planning. As noted by IFRC[4] in their own foresight journey, “Futures is a brilliant igniter for organisational transformation, but it has to be supported by approaches which drive curiosity, experimentation and the permission to dive into the unknown”.
My team has pioneered the organisation’s application of futures and is committed to continuing the sharing of our experiences with regional partners and new strategies (e.g. with the 2050 Strategy for a Blue Pacific Continent). Given our guiding principle of reciprocity it is the team’s intent to further develop our Pathfinder Pacific Guide to Foresight, building on our experiences and practices in the Pacific. We aspire to continue to build our capabilities and to share our learning with the broader futures community; to institutionalise strategic foresight and to grow a Blue Pacific Futures Network.
Wherever you are today, Figment, I know you have a futures home!
References
Bibri, S.E. (2018). Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(13). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z
Bradfield, R., Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2015, May). Teaching scenario analysis – An action learning pedagogy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 100. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275957731_Teaching_scenario_analysis-An_action_learning_pedagogy
Buehring, J. & Bishop, P. C. (2020). Foresight and design: New support for strategic decision making. She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 6(3), 408–432. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/she-ji-the-journal-of-design-economics-and-innovation/vol/6/issue/3
Édes, B. (2021). How can your organisation become future ready? Medium. https://bigtrendsguy.medium.com/how-can-your-organization-become-future-ready-bb2f179dfb7f
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991
Inayatullah, S. (1988, September). The Futures of Cultures: Present Images, Past Visions, and Future Hopes. [Conference paper]. World Futures Studies Federation Conference, Beijing, China. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000138764
Milojevic, Ivana (2005). Educational Futures: Dominant and Contesting Visions. Routledge.
Moore, M.-L. & Milkoreit, M. (2020, December). Imagination and transformations to sustainable and just futures. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 8(1), 081. https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/8/1/081/114610/Imagination-and-transformations-to-sustainable-and
Osborn, Alex F. (1953). Applied Imagination: Principles and Procedures for Creative Problem Solving. New York Scribner.
Ramos, J., Sweeney, J. A., Peach, K., & Smith, L. (2019). Our futures: by the people, for the people. London: NESTA.
UNDP. (2022, January). Becoming anticipatory and future-fit across Asia and the Pacific. UNDP Strategic Foresight and Anticipatory Offer Blog Series. https://www.undp.org/asia-pacific/news/becoming-anticipatory-and-future-fit-across-asia-and-pacific
Endnotes
- This guide is a decision-support toolkit that provides Pacific case studies whereby future-oriented strategic planning has been conducted online in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic ↑
- Thirteen core drivers and their potential impact on the organisation included social change; environmental health; strategic recovery; funding and independence; interconnected systems; conflicting priorities; socially inclusive work; climate change impacts; supporting social equity; changing technology; regionalisms versus nationalism; science for decision-making; and global decarbonisation. ↑
- A Samoan concept of wisdom and insight ↑
- https://www.iaran.org/blog/future-fit. ↑
