by Mete Yazici
The ongoing phase of industrial transformation, known as the fourth industrial revolution, aims to merge the physical, digital, and biological domains through extensive digital innovation (Saldanha, 2019). The pervasive incorporation of digital technologies into all facets of human existence became particularly evident following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 (Hantrais et al., 2020). Moreover, there is tough competition for users’ loyalty. MindSea (2023) reports that there are tens of thousands of applications released on smartphones annually. A typical smartphone holds over 80 apps, yet nearly 40% are removed due to lack of use. Additionally, another 40% are discarded because they are deemed intrusive, distracting, or confusing (MindSea, 2023). These statistics indicate that applications that remain competitive are those that are beneficial, meaningful, and minimally disruptive.
The challenge the CTO of ORM Co. is facing is not uncommon. Since the mid-90s, many scholars have identified the dilemma of delivering to the existing customer base while offering truly innovative solutions (Anthony, 2011). Although companies usually choose to focus on their business strategy to stay competitive, leaders have to notice the tight connection between strategy, culture, and purpose. In order to shift the company in a certain direction, business, management, and human aspects have to be part of the strategy (Joly, 2022).
Mapping The Future
A fundamental misunderstanding of the future is it is predetermined and there is not much that can be done to change the underlying trajectory. Futures Studies challenges this perspective by providing tools and concepts to lay out different versions, i.e., futures, of the future (Inayatullah, 2013a). Because the CTO of ORM Co. is trying to formulate a strategy in conjunction with the culture and purpose, a holistic analysis of future trajectories and drives of change may help.
First, a method called the Futures Triangle can be used to map the different trajectories of the future. The Futures Triangle will provide the basis for forming assumptions that will drive different scenarios of the future (Inayatullah, 2013a). Second, another method called Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) can be utilized to deep-dive into the drivers of sustained change. CLA can uncover unconscious or non-verbalized perceptions toward change by presenting visualization and ‘day in the life’ narratives of stakeholders (Inayatullah, 2013b).
The Futures Triangle’s left-hand corner, the push of the present, symbolizes the factors driving the organization toward a certain future, including emerging technologies, worldwide trends, economic prospects, and population changes. The top corner, the pull of the future, reflects the commonly held visions of the future. The right-hand corner, the weight of the past, represents the limitations and history that may impede change. All factors that hinder change, such as existing infrastructure, past investments, tradition, and organizational culture, create a force of resistance that decelerates the progression. The plausible futures are situated within the boundaries of the triangle (Inayatullah, 2023). The Future Triangle below summarizes the underlying forces, i.e., the push of the present, the pull of the future, and the weight of the past, are illustrated in Figure 1.
Push of the Present
Kelly (2017) listed some forces that have been driving long-term changes in the evolution of technology. The first one that has been impacting the UIs is the rise of intelligent systems, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its integration into all other technologies. The second push is the increased fluidity in both physical media and information. For example, in the past, knowledge would sit in books. Now, there is a mixture and reshaping of information in an endless variety of forms. Books themselves are being replaced by digital files that may be integrated into other media. The fluidity in entities leads to the third push, which is most relevant to UIs: Screens and user interfaces will be everywhere, anytime, on all objects, and will interact with all integrated information sources. The third push is wide, deeper, and bilateral interactions between humans and machines through new developments, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Virtual Reality (VR), and Augmented Reality (AR). The ultimate goal of integration of UIs with humans should make UIs so ubiquitous that they disappear into the “fabric of everyday life,” according to Mark Wiser, who was one of the advocates of the ubiquitous computing concept as early as the late 80s and early 90s (Weiser, 1991).
The forces driving technological changes can be seen in the list of “10 Breakthrough Technologies 2024” compiled by MIT Technology Review (2024). The review anticipates an increased integration of AI into daily life and predicts additional investments in its development by major technology corporations. In terms of increased interaction with machines and blurring boundaries, one of the big players released a mixed-reality headset. In contrast to virtual reality, mixed reality blends digital content directly with the real-world environment, making it a part of the physical surroundings. For existing screen-based UIs, the integration with humans, the expectation is further developments in increased personalization, accessibility, and interactivity with voice (UIDesignz, 2023).
Pull of the Future
Science Fiction films have been inspiring and influencing the development of human-computer interactions since the beginning of the last century, i.e., Fritz Lang’s 1927 film Metropolis (Jordan et al., 2018). In science fiction movies, one function of graphical user interfaces is to complement and expand the character’s capabilities (Yook & Yu, 2013). A recent depiction of a ubiquitous UI was presented in Denis Villeneuve’s 2017 film Blade Runner 2049. Intelligent machines eliminated the need for human command and control. Voice commands minimally expressed human intentions, yet graphical user interfaces were notably absent beyond this interaction (Ernst, 2019). Three-dimensional representations of objects and holograms also have been common in films such as Total Recall and Star Wars (Schmitz et al., 2010). Finally, in the Netflix drama “3 Body Problem,” characters use an advanced VR headset that transports them to a virtual universe. This headset appears featureless and buttonless. It seems to be part of a game created by an alien race to share their story and recruit humans to their cause (Norton, 2024).
Weight of the Past
A company’s activities and direction are driven by its business model, which is an integrated system of revenue vs. cost structures, client demands and relationships, distribution channels, key resources, partnerships, and value propositions (Strategyzer, 2024). When business results are good, companies see no reason to change, and they fall behind in innovation. Shareholders and investors may also lock the company in its current business model and may prevent investments in new systems (Anthony, 2011). In terms of developing a strategy for the next generation of UIs for improved UX, all these factors may hinder structural changes and innovation.
Alternative Futures
Based on the observations on average online retail megastores in the market, there could be three assumptions. The first one is the company cannot leap to make big innovative changes due to internal and external factors. They try to align with general trends in the market and customer expectations, but they do not take any risks. The second assumption is the company allocates some funds to start a small experiment in new technologies in order to test the customer reaction. They are careful to cannibalize any current revenue streams or to cause any alarm in the workforce. The third assumption is the company takes the risk and decides to make a big shift toward innovation. They mobilize internal and external resources to recreate their entire business model and infrastructure. Each assumption can be utilized to drive a related scenario (Baldwin, 2021). Three scenarios are summarized in Table 1. For the futures associated with each scenario, it might be good to choose 5 years later, at the end of 2029.
| Table 1
Summary of scenarios |
|
| Scenarios | Summary of the Scenario
Representative Newspaper Headlines |
| Scenario 1: UIs as we know them | No major changes, improve UX.
“ORM Co. is dedicated to cherishing diversity. People come first; tech comes second.” |
| Scenario 2: Tiptoeing into the future | Invest some money to start a small experiment in new UI technologies.
“ORM Co. keeps delighting the customer with choosing the best technology for the best shopping experience.” |
| Scenario 3: Jumping in and forward | Make a big shift toward innovation for ubiquitous UIs.
“ORM Co. is our new lifeline, in the very fabric of our daily lives.” |
Scenario 1: UIs as we know them
In Scenario 1, ORM Co. will not make any major changes. The developers and management do not want to take any big risks; therefore, they will stay with the current web-based UIs. The organization’s leadership defines itself as a retail store, not a technology company. They decide to focus on promoting and selling the merchandise as they used to. They think technology comes and goes. Thus, they need to invest some funds to improve the UX, but they do now believe investing in new technologies will significantly make an impact on their revenue prospects.
The scenario can be summarized with a visual depicting ORM Co. as an online store that empathizes with a diverse range of customers. The visual emphasizes the human connection rather than the technology of the UI. Newspapers feature the key slogan for the shareholders: “ORM Co. is dedicated to cherishing diversity. People come first; tech comes second.” The future of Scenario 1 can be depicted by the metaphor (Figure 2) of a shopping list on a sheet of paper, as it is a future that focuses on the shopping experience itself. According to the scenario, a customer will use an upgraded version of a UI, either on a super slim mobile device or a laptop, to do their shopping. They remember how their experience was basically the same compared to a decade ago.
Figure 2
Metaphor associated with Scenario 1
Image generated using the prompt “Generate an image of a senior person enjoying a traditional online shopping experience,” by OpenAI (2024).
Scenario 2: Tiptoeing into the future
In Scenario 2, ORM Co. decides to invest some funds to start a small experiment in new UI technologies. The management is concerned with the risks of using new technologies. The customer service team and the internal developers are worried about such changes because of the risk of disruption to existing operations. In addition, many are tired of mastering new technologies and adapting to new systems. The senior management feels they need to take some steps to respond to the pressure from some of the influential shareholders. They see the business as a retail store, with technology as a major enabler of the shopping experience, thus, they decide to seek ways to engage consultants and technology start-ups for possible tie-ups.
The scenario can be summarized with a visual depicting ORM Co. as an online store that provides a great shopping experience with the best technology the customers can appreciate. The visual emphasizes the role of technology in creating such an experience. Newspapers feature the key slogan for the shareholders: “ORM Co. keeps delighting the customer by choosing the best technology for the best shopping experience.” The future of Scenario 2 can be depicted by the metaphor (Figure 3) of a customer wearing VR goggles and walking along a virtual market buying things as if they are doing the actual shopping physically. The CEO feels confident that they can stay competitive during all the recent technological changes. The workforce is busy dealing with the support requirements coming from the new UIs.
Figure 3
Metaphor associated with Scenario 2
Image generated using the prompt “Generate an image of working person enjoying an advanced online shopping experience,” by OpenAI (2024).
Scenario 3: Jumping in and forward
In Scenario 3, ORM Co. decides to take the risk and make a big shift toward innovation. They internally recruit leaders to lead the effort, empowering them to work with any external parties to buy and customize technologies that utilize IoT, VR, and AR without the burden of wearing special devices. The management team creates a Change Management program and presents a compelling case to the workforce that the best shopping experience will require minimal interfaces, enabling customers to shop seamlessly without spending much time. They schedule weekly all-employee meetings to address concerns from internal teams about the impact on customers and the sensitive issue of job security. They hear the employees’ concerns about the ethics of using smart algorithms and create an ethics committee. The management initiates upskilling programs linked with the new technologies to be deployed. Aware that the change of direction requires new capital, they communicate with key investors and arrange a series of meetings attended by investors and technology experts. They define the business as a retail store that eliminates the hassle of shopping. They recognize that some customers will enjoy traditional shopping and acknowledge that ORM Co. will provide a robust range of experiences for diverse customers.
The scenario can be summarized with a visual depicting ORM Co. as a ubiquitous infrastructure where customers with diverse needs can interact wherever and whenever they want. The associated visual image (Figure 4) emphasizes how seamless the shopping experience will be. The user stories in commercial advertisements will tell the stories of customers who receive or get goods that match their lifestyles, values, and budgets anywhere and at any time. Newspapers feature the key slogan for the shareholders: “ORM Co. is our new lifeline, in the very fabric of our daily lives.” The future of Scenario 3 can be depicted by the metaphor of air and water.
Figure 4
Metaphor associated with Scenario 3
Note. Image generated using the prompt “Generate an image of a woman who needs and enjoys an the shopping experience of the future where UI is ubiquitous,” by OpenAI (2024).
Conclusion
The essay examined and illustrated the futures of a hypothetical online retail megastore (“ORM Co.”) in its pursuit of developing a strategy for the next generation of web-based User Interfaces (UIs) for improved User Experience (UX). The futures were mapped using the futures triangle method. Three alternative futures were explored through the assumptions approach. The first scenario assumes an organizational culture that is relatively conservative and focuses on human interaction. The third scenario is based on an organizational culture that prioritizes innovation and risk-taking. The second scenario seeks a balance between those two. By leveraging the full potential of each scenario, stakeholders can make informed decisions and develop strategies that align with their organization’s purpose and values. This approach also encourages a re-evaluation of organizational culture, highlighting the narratives that deserve greater visibility.
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