By Jeanne Hoffman
Introduction
Imagine a future where health systems prioritise human connection and prevention, energy grids seamlessly blend with local ecosystems, leadership mirrors the fluidity and collaboration of nature itself and universities transform into learning whenever, wherever and whatever we want. This is not the world we currently inhabit, but it is the futures envisioned by the 15 participants at the Caloundra Series Futures Thinking and Transformational Masterclass (Masterclass), held at the Rumba Resort on the Queensland coast, 9-10 December. Facilitated by the author, Dr. Ivana Milojević and Prof. Sohail Inayatullah the Masterclass brought together diverse participants to explore, and shape preferred futures across three domains: Health, Leadership, University and Energy futures as chosen by the group. The event also featured A panel of five experts shared insights on pandemic futures (Dr. Peter Black), South Pacific Community futures literacy (Kristel Griffiths), AI and mindset (Dr. Elissa Farrow), Unicity Method for values-based futures (Dr. Colin Russo), and WILD Regenerative Futures (Willow Pryor).
Participants from government, utilities, consultancies, and leadership roles engaged with curiosity to envision tomorrow and act today. One participant shared, “This workshop helped me connect with like-minded individuals, meet new experts, and spark fresh ideas. I’m excited to integrate these insights…”
The Approach
The Masterclass applied Inayatullah’s Six Pillars Framework (Inayatullah, 2008; Inayatullah, 2024) including: Emerging Issues Analysis, The Futures Triangle, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), Scenarios, and Backcasting. These were complemented by Milojević’s Conflict Transformation Methods (Milojević, 2024) and the author’s version of the Polak Game by (Polak, 1973; Hayward & Candy, 2017; The author, 2017), encouraging participants to confront systemic barriers and imagine transformative possibilities.
Through the Polak Game (Polak, 1973; Hayward & Candy, 2017; The author, 2017), participants expressed broad optimism about their ability to drive change. However, their lived experiences highlighted tensions with current Australian and global political concerns that often prioritise incremental progress and, in the case of Australia’s energy sector, nuclear energy as a preferred future solution rather than renewables. Across all domain areas—health, education, leadership and energy—the message from participants was clear: business-as-usual futures focused on the here and now are unsustainable. If left unchallenged and unchanged, they will deepen inequities, exacerbate environmental collapse, and leave communities vulnerable to ongoing crises.
This article will synthesize insights from the Masterclass, organizing them by domain area. It will explain the methods used to generate scenarios, including futures triangles, emerging issues and CLA incasting.
Debrief from CLA Incasting
Domain Insights and Scenarios with CLA incasting
Health: From “Dr Knows Best” to “Care Bear”
Currently the Australian health sector is at a crossroads, with a desire to transition from the traditional “Dr. Knows Best’ model – which prioritises treatment and profit over prevention – to a “Care Bear” approach that values relational care, prevention, and shared agency.
The Futures Triangle mapped the key forces shaping healthcare, highlighting critical issues like workforce shortages, rising community expectations, and technological innovations. Workforce constraints have intensified waiting times and staff burnout, while increasing mental health awareness and evolving patient expectations call for systemic adaptation. Technological innovations, including AI-driven diagnostics and predictive medicine, are transforming care delivery but remain unevenly implemented. Patients increasingly expect holistic, accessible, and empathetic care beyond the traditional medical model.
Significant structural barriers or “weights” persist, driven by mechanistic, symptom-focused approaches, rigid hierarchies, and fragmented healthcare systems. These entrenched constraints hinder collaboration, innovation, and the shift toward holistic and empathetic patient care.
In response, participants envisioned a transformative “Care Bear” future emphasising relational care, prevention, and shared decision-making. This scenario integrates AI-driven diagnostics and interconnected healthcare ecosystems, aiming for equity, responsiveness, and proactive care aligned with patient and community needs.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual – “Dr Knows Best”
Under current trends, the “Dr. Knows Best” model remains entrenched in the litany of workforce shortages, long wait times, and staff burnout, and systemic failures. Systemic issues such as chronic underfunding, rigid hierarchies, and profit-driven priorities deepen public mistrust and exacerbate inequities. The worldview sees healthcare as a mechanistic, symptom-focused industry, where patients are passive recipients of care, and providers act as authoritative experts. The metaphor of “Dr. Knows Best” perpetuates paternalism, rigidity, and a one-size-fits-all approach to health. As a result, Australia becomes a cautionary tale of a healthcare system that grapples with “care deserts”—regions where access to healthcare is virtually non-existent.
Scenario 2: By 2035 – “Care Bear Future”
By 2035, innovation and necessity have transformed Australia’s healthcare landscape. The myth/metaphor of the “Care Bear” encapsulates this new paradigm, symbolizing relational care, inclusivity, and empathy, embodying a healthcare system responsive to diverse community needs. The worldview reframes healthcare as a shared responsibility between providers, patients, and communities, emphasising education, empowerment, and holistic well-being. Systemically, this transformation emerges from significant investments in prevention, chronic disease management, and collaborative care frameworks, replacing hierarchical, fragmented models with empowered, patient-centred, equitable approaches. At the litany level, headlines celebrate proactive, preventative care facilitated by AI-powered diagnostics, personalised interventions, and integrated networks connecting hospitals, aged care, home care, and mental health services.
The main challenge is to resolve the key conflicts between traditional models (hierarchical, doctor-centred) and emerging visions (collaborative, patient-empowered) (Milojević, 2024). By integrating technology, patient empowerment, and holistic care models they envisioned a future health system that is adaptive, equitable, and preventative.
Image 1: Healthcare Futures Triangle by participants at the Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Master Series, Caloundra, 2024.
Image 2: Healthcare conflict transformation (Milojević, 2024) imagined by participants at the Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Master Series, Caloundra, 2024.
| CLA Layer | Current Trends | Preferred Reality |
| Litany | Workforce shortages, long wait times, fragmented services, and rising chronic illnesses. | Proactive and preventative care enabled by AI-powered diagnostics, personalised interventions, and integration of services. |
| Systemic causes | Fragmented care delivery, chronic underfunding, hierarchical institutions prioritising treatment and profit. | Collaborative care frameworks, investments in prevention, chronic disease management, and integrated ecosystems. |
| Worldview | Healthcare as a mechanistic, symptom-focused industry where patients are passive recipients. | Healthcare as a shared responsibility, emphasising empowerment, education, and holistic well-being. |
| Myth/Metaphor | “Dr. Knows Best” – paternalistic, rigid, and reactive. | “Care Bear” – relational, inclusive, proactive, and preventative. |
Table 1: Health Care CLA by The author from work done by participants
Leadership: From “Wolves Guiding Sheep” to “Migrating Birds”
The current leadership model, represented by the metaphor “Wolves Guiding Sheep,” describes a rigid hierarchy with power centralised at the top. Current disruptions—including technological advances, generational shifts, and demands for diversity and inclusion—are challenging this traditional structure. Younger leaders and community movements increasingly advocate for collaborative, inclusive, and purpose-driven leadership.
Participants envisioned an alternative future symbolised by the metaphor “Migrating Birds,” emphasising decentralisation, adaptability, and purpose driven action. Adaptive decision-making replaces rigid hierarchies, Indigenous wisdom informs community-focused leadership, and innovative structures such as Decentralised Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) foster collaboration and equity.
Yet, significant barriers persist, including ageism, ego-driven priorities, gatekeeping, profit-driven mindsets, and patriarchal biases, hindering this transition toward inclusive, regenerative leadership.
Creating Scenarios
Scenario 1: Business as Usual – “Wolves Guiding Sheep”
In the Business-as-Usual scenario, leadership remains locked in traditional, hierarchical systems where power is concentrated at the top. The litany level highlights inefficiencies, employee disengagement, and stagnant productivity, with organizations perpetually “firefighting” rather than proactively addressing future challenges. The systemic level shows these issues arise through rigid hierarchical systems that centralize power, resist innovation, and exclude marginalised voices from decision-making. Such structures prioritise maintaining the status quo over fostering creativity, adaptability, and collaboration. This worldview sees leadership as rigid, prioritising short-term gains over meaningful change. At the deepest layer, the myth/metaphor of leadership as “unchallenged hierarchy” symbolises resistance to transformation, perpetuating inequities and limiting the diversity of perspectives necessary for addressing complex societal and organizational challenges. Furthermore, marginalised voices continue to be excluded from decision-making processes, perpetuating inequities and limiting the diversity of thought necessary for addressing complex challenges.
Scenario 2: By 2035 – “Migrating Birds”
By 2035, “Migrating Birds” symbolizes a decentralised transformative leadership model characterized by adaptability, collaboration and collective purpose. The underpinning worldview redefines leadership as a shared, inclusive responsibility committed to long-term societal and environmental well-being rather than short term profits. Systemically, hierarchical structures give way to decentralised and collaborative frameworks, supported by Universal Basic Income (UBI), radical transparency, and democratised information access, thus enabling collective decision-making. Traditional CEOs are replaced by shared leadership frameworks, symbolised by “CEO bonfires,” firing the CEO and bringing in a more inclusive and participatory leadership model. At the litany level, headlines celebrate inclusive decision-making, systemic regeneration, and widespread equity-focused practices.
Image 4: by participants at a Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Master Series, Caloundra, 2024.
Image 5: Radical Change imagined by participants at the Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Master Series, Caloundra, 2024.
| CLA Layer | Leadership – Business and usual | Transformative Reality |
| Litany | Inefficiencies, employee disengagement, low productivity, and reactive “firefighting” approaches. | Collaboration, transparency, adaptability, and decentralised power celebrated in organisational practices. |
| Systemic Causes | Rigid hierarchical systems centralise power, resist innovation, and exclude marginalized voices. | Enablers like UBI, radical transparency, and democratised access to information dismantle hierarchies. |
| Worldview | Leadership as top-down authority, prioritising the status quo and short-term goals over innovation. | Leadership as a shared responsibility rooted in equity, regeneration, and long-term societal impact. |
| Myth/metaphor | “Wolves Guiding Sheep” of Unchallenged hierarchy – resistant to change, perpetuating inequities and limited diversity. | “Migrating Birds” – symbolising adaptability, collaboration, and collective purpose. |
Table 2: Leadership futures CLA by The author from work done by participants
Education: From “Ivory Tower” to “Learning Ecosystem”
Emerging Issues in Education: A Call for Transformation
Participants highlighted that the current education structure is perceived as fixed and immutable, rooted in outdated systems that struggle to adapt to modern demands. Financial instability, declining enrolments, and decentralisation strain rigid education models, highlighting the need for flexibility and adaptability. Disruptive technologies, such as brain chip innovations, and the potential to repurpose learning spaces into multi-purpose community hubs, highlight both risks and opportunities for universities.
Trends like micro-credentials, cost-shifting, and downsizing emphasise the need for bold, adaptive strategies. Without proactive responses, traditional education models risk becoming obsolete. Reimagining universities as adaptive ecosystems – integrating multi-purpose community hubs with services like aged care and agricultural activities – can enhance resilience. Disruptions to career pathways, highlighted by COVID, reveal the fragmentation of traditional routes education-to-employment routes, compelling institutions to rethink how they prepare students for an uncertain future. Without proactive strategies, these trends risk deepening instability and accelerating the decline of traditional education models, leaving them increasingly irrelevant in a rapidly changing world.
Image 6: Emerging issues imagined by participants at the Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Master Series, Caloundra, 2024.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual – “The Ivory Tower”
In the business-as-usual scenario, universities fail to adapt to the changing demands of society, leading to a collapse in their relevance and sustainability between 2030 and 2050. At the litany level, headlines highlight declining enrolments, shrinking budgets, and reduced quality in teaching, research, and student support. Economic pressures and chaotic governance dominate public discourse, while concerns about safety and relevance grow. Systemically, traditional education models prioritise competition, rankings, and prestige over societal impact and adaptability. Funding structures fail to support diversification or innovation, leaving institutions unable to form meaningful partnerships or address emerging challenges. From a worldview perspective, universities are seen as detached from societal needs and clinging to traditional approaches that no longer serve a rapidly evolving world. This reinforces resistance to change, stifling creativity and collaboration. Symbolically, the metaphor the “Ivory Tower” embodies the isolation, rigidity, and irrelevance.
Scenario 2: By 2035 – “Learning Ecosystem”
In the preferred scenario, universities evolve into dynamic “Learning Ecosystems” that are inclusive, adaptable, and deeply embedded in society. The metaphor the “learning ecosystem” symbolises adaptability, integration, and regeneration, replacing the isolation of the “ivory tower” with a vision of interconnectedness and purpose. This worldview reimagines education as a collective, inclusive endeavour, positioning universities as catalysts for societal transformation, equity, and representation across leadership, research, and student bodies. Systemic level changes are achieved through innovative funding models, such as the Doughnut Economy, and sustainable practices that ensure long-term viability. Universities collaborate with industries, communities, and policymakers to drive interdisciplinary research and tackle pressing social and environmental challenges. At the litany level, headlines celebrate universities as thriving hubs of creativity, adaptability, and problem-solving, deeply embedded in society and responsive to its needs. Institutions are recognised for fostering experiential and service-based learning, providing students with meaningful “learning journeys” that seamlessly bridge theory and practice. This new paradigm positions universities as vital contributors to a sustainable and equitable future, fostering innovation, collaboration, and resilience at every level.
| CLA Layer | Business-as-Usual | Learning Ecosystem |
| Litany | Declining enrolments, shrinking budgets, and reduced quality in teaching, research, and student support. | Universities celebrated as hubs of creativity, adaptability, and experiential learning that bridge theory and practice. |
| Systemic Causes | Traditional models prioritise competition, rankings, and prestige over societal impact and adaptability. | Economic resilience through innovative funding models (e.g., Doughnut Economy) and interdisciplinary collaboration with industries and communities. |
| Worldview | Universities are detached “ivory towers,” resistant to change and misaligned with societal needs. | Education is a collective, inclusive endeavour emphasising equity, diversity, and societal transformation. |
| Myth/Metaphor | The “ivory tower” symbolises isolation, rigidity, and irrelevance. | The “learning ecosystem” symbolises integration, adaptability, and regeneration. |
Table 3: Education futures CLA by The author from work done by participants
Energy: From Light Switch to Light Touch
As part of the backcasting exercise, participants envisioned a preferred energy future in 2035, transitioning from a centralised, top-down model “Light Switch” to a decentralised, personalised, and tech-enabled system “Light Touch”. In this future, renewable energy sources, smart grids, and wearable devices empower individuals to track and manage their energy usage in real time.
Achieving this vision requires fostering energy innovation, accelerating renewable adoption, and equipping individuals with the knowledge to manage their energy footprints effectively. By integrating these elements, this scenario aligns with the Masterclass themes of adaptability, sustainability, and equity, providing a clear roadmap for transforming energy systems to meet evolving societal and environmental needs.
Conclusion
The Masterclass demonstrated a critical truth: the future is not fixed but continuously shaped by our imaginations, choices, and actions today. As one participant reflected: “Why futures? How futures? Futures for what? It’s something about creating metaphors, visions, and possibilities”. By envisioning radically different stories about the future, participants challenged entrenched patterns across health, leadership, education, and energy, laying the groundwork for bold, transformative, and even seemingly ‘ridiculous’ change. These scenarios are more than mere academic exercises; they provide clear roadmaps for reimagining fragmented systems into equitable, sustainable, and adaptive structures capable of addressing our world’s complexities. They also serve as warnings—holding onto outdated ‘used futures’ driven by rigid hierarchies, competitive mindsets, and mechanistic, symptom-focused approaches will only deepen existing inequities and crises.
The plausibility of these transformed futures is not in idealistic thinking but in the clear identification of existing systemic interventions and emerging possibilities. Yet, the structural barriers remain deeply entrenched, reflecting systemic inertia and embedded worldviews that perpetuate path dependency. Recognising these persistent constraints underscores that incremental changes alone will not suffice. Real transformation requires leaders and policymakers to confront entrenched mindsets and systemic barriers head-on, embracing new narratives, bold systemic redesign, and deep worldview shifts. These scenarios provide not just hopeful visions but practical pathways toward equitable, inclusive, sustainable, and adaptive systems capable of addressing our world’s complexities.
The choice is ours: either perpetuate ‘used futures’ that no longer make sense or embrace these practical pathways to create a better, shared future and transform these aspirations into reality.
| Domain | Business-as-Usual | Transformative Future | New Core Values |
| Health | Dr Knows Best | Care Bear | Relational care, prevention, and shared agency. |
| Leadership | Wolves Guiding Sheep/Stagnant Pyramid | Migrating Birds | Adaptability, collaboration, and shared power. |
| University | Ivory Tower | Learning Ecosystem | Lifelong learning, personalisation, and diversity. |
| Energy | Light Switch | Light Touch | Sustainability, decentralization, and ecosystems. |
Table 3: CLA with new core values by The author from work done by participants
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References
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4–28. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991
Inayatullah, S. (2024). Causal layered analysis: Theory, conceptual framework, and methods. In S. Inayatullah, R. Mercer, I. Milojević, & J. A. Sweeney (Eds.), CLA 3.0: Thirty years of transformative research (pp. 3–23). Tamkang University Press.
Milojević, I. (2024). Conflicts on the rise – Is anticipatory governance a solution? Journal of Futures Studies, 29(1), 9–19. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2024.29(1).A1
Polak, F. (1973). The image of the future (E. Boulding, Trans.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Hayward, P., & Candy, S. (2017). The Polak Game, or: Where do you stand? Journal of Futures Studies, 22(2), 5–14. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2017.22(2).A5
The author, (2017). Serious play: Transforming futures thinking through game-based curriculum design. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(2): 41–60. https://doi.org /10.6531/JFS.2017.22(2).A41
Milojević, I., & Inayatullah, S. (2015). Narrative foresight. Futures, 73, 151–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.007
