郑科骥(Louis ZHENG), 未来学家俱乐部（中国） 王家琨(JK WANG), 未来学家俱乐部（中国） 概述 本文旨在介绍一种笔者在社群活动实践中经常采取的以策展+工作坊形式的研究方法，结合未来学、个体视角、青年叙事。通过共创工作坊中个人创作的拼贴画，了解个体未来叙事，并尝试延展到对青年群体未来的长期追踪和分析。本文详细分享了这套方法的基本框架、研究及活动流程，并用具体案例解释图景分析方法。 关键词：未来图景、叙事拼贴画、共创式展览 Summary This article aims to introduce a research method that the author often adopts in the practice of community activities in the form of exhibition curation + workshop, combining foresight, individual perspective, and youth storytelling Through the collages created by workshop participants, we can understand the future narrative of individuals, and try to extend it to the long-term tracking and analysis of the future of youth groups. This article shares the basic framework, research, and process of this method in detail, and uses specific cases to explain the collage analysis method.…
Author: Abril Chimal
by Helen Halford The extraordinary social and economic impacts of COVID-19 have profoundly disrupted the operations of social purpose organisations and shifted the needs and perspectives of the communities they serve. At the same time, the importance of maximising the impacts of activities that create meaningful and long-term social transformation that is relevant to present and future generations has never been greater. This presents a complex and critical problem at the level of both business and beneficiaries. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a method for deepening the process of addressing complex social problems and formulating alternative futures. Questioning and creating…
by Marguerite Coetzee In Hindu mythology, it is believed that the Earth is balanced on the backs of elephants, which are themselves supported by a World Turtle. Below that turtle? Another turtle. It is turtles all the way down. In complexity and systems thinking, it could be argued that a proposition requires justification, and the justification itself needs to be supported. No idea exists in isolation, no truth in a vacuum, no experience untethered from others. It is turtles all the way down. By identifying layers of analysis, Causal Layered Analysis is a sense-making tool that explores the narratives used…
by Christian Gruenwald Relief in large parts of the world’s politics was great when the news of Joe Biden’s election victory spread. After days of restraint, many heads of government could not go fast enough with the congratulations after the television stations announced Biden’s victory. The presidency of Donald Trump seems to be history for now. But Trumpism is still there. In this context, Trumpism is not so much an ideology as a style of understanding and conducting politics. It includes scorn for rule-based multilateralism and political correctness. The systematic shifting of limits of what can be said and limitations…
Sohail Inayatullah[1], Arun Jacob[2] and Reham Rizk[3] What are the futures of manufacturing in Egypt in the next five to ten years? Can Egypt use the COVID-19 crisis to quickly retool and create a revolution in manufacturing unlocking business? Or will the gap between the rich and poor, the prepared and unprepared, continue to widen? Indeed, how should Egypt position itself in terms of not just the pandemic (near-shoring, localization), but other disruptions such as changes in technology (robotics and automation, the Internet of everything, digitalized government, 3D printing); greening and sustainability (the shift to a circular economy, eco-friendly products);…
by Otto C. Frommelt The Coronavirus disease brought about a pandemic that has changed our lives and the way we conduct business beyond recognition. Right now, we are just at the beginning of a long journey into the future in a post-pandemic world. The objective of this article is to present an outlook of possible futures with regards to the impact on society, government and our business community. It includes practical and possible new business models focusing on a circular economy business environment. In the following, I will outline key drivers and sketch plausible scenarios. Post-pandemic scenarios Considering two key…
by Jose Ramos How do we make sense of the dramatic changes happening during the coronavirus pandemic? How do we get on an empowered footing rather than reaction and confusion? So many have simply been struck by “future shock”, i.e. the future has arrived but it has arrived in a daunting pathological guise. People are not prepared, indeed many are just dumbfounded as taken for granted aspects of life are thrown asunder. Many search for meaning amid the intellectual centrifuge which is social media today, lost in the bramble of conspiracy theories, xenophobic blame and a 24 hour news cycle.…
by Jost Wagner & Sohail Inayatullah What are the futures of the Asia-Pacific region? What might the region look like in a decade? How can futures thinking be used to transform the nature of strategy and policymaking? Over 150 futurists, policymakers, and academics met in Bangkok for the 5th Annual Asia-Pacific Futures Network Conference to explore these and other questions. Topics included the possibility of an Asian Confederation, emerging pandemics, the importance of horizon scanning for security forces, and the need to build risk assessment into scenarios and preferred futures. APFN in Bangkok For the second time, the 5th Asia…
by Yelena V. Muzykina Futures Studies and Foresight in Kazakhstan Futures studies and foresight seem quite established disciplines in the global academic world. Some scholars even trace their origins as far as the futuristic novels by Jules Verne, a French writer publishing in the 1860s and 1870s (Bell, 1996, p. 7). Nevertheless, for Kazakhstan, this is a completely unknown field. The first steps were made in February 2019 when the Qazaq Research Institute for Futures Studies (QRIFS) launched its activities. Making connections with different local organizations, QRIFS established fruitful cooperation with creative companies and educational institutions, public and private…
by Joe Ravetz The COVID-19 global pandemic has caused death and disruption around the world, and also exposes underlying tensions, traumas and conflicts. There are many hard lessons in disaster management, public health, economic recovery and so on. But in this Perspective I would like to look more deeply and widely. I begin some mappings of systemic transformations now in motion, both negative and positive – and then explore what kind of systemic pathways could help steer from one outcome to another. Drawing on the synergistic methods set out in Deeper-City, this agenda includes: – Exploring the potential of collective…