Review
A Metafuture Emerging Issue Report (Metafuture.org, 2022) $19.50
Ralph Mercer
Managing Editor of World Futures Review, Posthumanism Research Insitute.
Introduction
The End of the Cow and Other Emerging Issues” is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding the transformative trends that will shape our future. While not a book in the strict sense, the collection of reports from selected domains provides a structure that brings the reader through the text in a logical and easy-to-read format. With practical insights and clear methodology, it serves as a tool for futurists, policymakers, and anyone looking to engage with the future proactively. The booklet is organized into five domains, each presenting a critical perspective on the future of global systems: the anticipatory city, Disrupting the Cow, Women Lead the Way, The Changing Family, and Learning Anytime, Anywhere with Anyone.
Layout
Each Domain of interest opens with key messages that provide a concise overview of the main insights and arguments presented. These messages are designed to orient the reader to the essential points before delving into the detailed analysis.
Emerging Issues Analysis
One of the more thought-provoking aspects of EIA is the focus on disturbing current mindsets and challenging the paradigms of stakeholders. This domain of interest introduces us to the history of the EIA and Graham Molitor’s use and development of the S-curve and EIA methods. The authors credit the seminal work of Molitor in his 1977 paper “How to Anticipate Public Policy Changes (p. 9)” for shaping the modern use of EIA. Destabilizing the stakeholders is an essential step in shifting the organization’s focus away from the present. The authors explain how EIA can help organizations and governments anticipate future trends by focusing on weak signals and emerging patterns. The method is positioned as essential for long-term strategic planning, enabling a proactive approach to shaping the future rather than merely reacting to it.
Questioning Reality
This section resonated with me. The authors advance and fine-tune the need to challenge the current visions of reality and deeply held beliefs of the stakeholders. Emerging Issues Analysis not only tracks “…weak signals but also through conversations with those on the margins of society: shamans and others outside the disciplinary grids of society (p. 6).” The concept also permits the user to challenge the very perception of what constitutes a reliable source of data. It offers policymakers the opportunity to shift their focus towards previously inconceivable ideas, leading them to discover new paths to emerging industries and political opportunities. The authors draw our attention when they affirm the “need to challenge the pre-understandings of decision makers, using the unthinkable to challenge the normal” p.6.”
The Anticipatory City
The Anticipatory City explores the future of urban environments, envisioning cities as complex adaptive systems that prioritize wellness, sustainability, and proactive governance. It introduces the concept of the Anticipatory City, where technologies like AI and intelligent sensors play a critical role in predicting and managing future challenges. The section highlights the contrast between the potential for cities to become democratic, citizen-led environments or controlled, technocratic spaces, emphasizing the importance of citizen engagement in shaping urban futures. A key message is broadening focus from infrastructure to include prosperity, people, planet and wellbeing.
Disrupting the Cow
The book then focuses on the future of food production, examining the rise of cellular agriculture and its potential to disrupt traditional meat industries. It discusses how lab-grown meat and other no-kill alternatives could address environmental and ethical concerns associated with conventional farming. Through various scenarios, the section explores how these innovations might transition from niche markets to mainstream adoption, potentially revolutionizing the global food supply chain and reducing the environmental impact of food production. One of the key messages of investing in science and technology is to become the leader in new food, and “second-order impacts could lead to dramatic new food and other downstream technologies (p. 23).”
Women Really Lead the Way
This section examines the crucial role of women in shaping future societies, especially in terms of leadership and “…historical patterns of power distribution between genders (p.36).” It compares two possible scenarios: one where progress towards gender equality is impeded by crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and another where such challenges drive the advancement of women in leadership positions. The analysis emphasizes the substantial economic and social advantages of gender equality, advocating for greater inclusion of women in decision-making processes at all levels of society. However, there is a stark message in this section that “COVID-19 has reversed previous gains related to gender and socio-economic equity (p.36)” that the fight continues.
The Changing Family
The changing family addresses the evolving nature of family structures in response to technological, social, and economic changes. It discusses how traditional notions of the family are being redefined, with new forms of relationships and living arrangements emerging. The continued “debates over same-sex marriage are increasingly heard, yet they remain a controversial social and political issue (p.47)” and detract from the larger questions of what constitutes a family unit now and in the future. The section predicts that future family setups will become more diverse and fluid, influenced by changes in gender roles, an aging population, and societal expectations, which will, in turn, impact social policies and cultural norms. A key question is where emerging technologies, social robots, and AI fit into the family as caregivers to the elderly, sick and disabled.
Learning Anytime, Anywhere, with Anyone
The last section discusses the future of education, with a focus on breaking down traditional barriers to learning. “But the shift is not only about educational technology. It is also about a new model of pedagogy… (p.56)”. It investigates how digital platforms, global networks, and personalized learning paths are transforming education into a more accessible and flexible process. The section envisions a future where learning is tailored to individual needs, emphasizing the importance of lifelong learning in a rapidly changing world and the shift from standardized education to more personalized, on-demand learning opportunities. Nations and economies will have an advantage if they move toward education models and deliveries that are student-centred choices.
Summary
One of the strengths of the booklet is the sections that follow each of the domains of interest. Each domain begins with the Signals of Change, which highlight emerging trends and weak signals that may have significant future implications. These signals are analyzed to offer early insights into potential shifts in various fields, from urban development to education and gender roles. Additionally, each domain concludes with a reference section, which includes citations from a wide range of academic sources, reports, and real-world examples to help readers explore the issue in greater depth. These references provide a solid foundation for the analyses and offer readers additional resources for further research and exploration.
Emerging issues analysis of the Anticipatory City and End of the Cow domains was heavy in techno-solutionism that leaked several weak signals that I would have liked to see explored. The Anticipatory City needed to question the necessity and purpose of urban areas; the human-technology relationship also signals the opportunity to question the need for high-density living or the fundamental perception of what defines a living environment based on wellness. In disrupting the cow, the cellular technology method still required animals to be farmed for cell harvesting, reducing them to sub-species for food production for economic gain. This approach and the fact that it is still animal-based meat would be incompatible with vegan and plant-based eaters’ beliefs. Both sections encourage a process that disrupts and destabilizes our understanding; in the case of the Anticipatory City, there is an opportunity to focus on what constitutes community wellness, collective intelligence, and urban areas in the age of AI. In the section on cellular meat, the discussion should prompt us to consider what defines the place of animals in our social structure and, by extension, what rights they have to their ‘meat.’
Overall, the “End of the Cow and Other Emerging Issues” is an informative and valuable resource for futurists, strategists, policymakers, and anyone interested in challenging their understanding of the forces shaping the future. The book has a unique format, with each section following a consistent structure of key messages, signals of change, a checklist for the practitioner and references, which allows for both depth and clarity. It is a well-structured analysis, including key messages and signals of change, and equips readers with the foresight needed to navigate and influence these impending shifts. With practical insights and a rigorous methodology, it is a potent tool for futurists, policymakers, and anyone looking to engage with the future proactively. This book is an indispensable guide if you’re serious about preparing for what’s next.