Article
Elina Hiltunen1,*
1 Department of Leadership and Military Pedagogy, National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland
Abstract
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of aerial drones in combat. Although drone warfare is a new paradigm of war, it is foreshadowed in military science fiction. This article examines aerial drones described in a science fiction report by the US military called Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050. The article’s results show that some of the visions in the sci-fi report are reality in the Russo-Ukraine war already, while others are still waiting to be implemented.
Keywords:
Drone, UAV, sci-fi, war, Ukraine, future
Introduction
“Science fiction is experiencing a renaissance as the rate of change and uncertainty about the future increases. Organizations, innovators, and changemakers alike are turning to the genre to navigate the future and design for the present, often unaware that generating and using images of the future for strategic purposes is a cornerstone of foresight practice.” Zaidi (2019) has commented. Science fiction is a powerful tool. By using narratives like in science fiction, organizations can get into people’s emotions and increase motivation to act (Miller, 2015). Indeed, many militaries and defence organisations are using more and more science fiction to anticipate future warfare. For example, the Canadian Army, NATO, the French Army, and the UK Ministry of Defence have produced science fiction reports or stories reflecting future warfare (Allied Command Transformation, 2016; BBC, 2019; Cole & Singer, 2020; Gaub, 2024; Schroeder, 2005, 2014; Singer & Cole, 2023).
Many times, technological innovations appear in science fiction before coming to reality. Even before the first drones were used in war or commercially, flying drones have appeared in science fiction. The first description of flying drones can be found in a short story written by Thomas Edison (and finalized by George Parsons Lathrop) in 1896. In the story, Edison envisaged a future in which automated flying machines would deliver mail to people (Daugherty, 2018). Since then, aerial drones or flying vehicles have appeared in many science fiction stories, movies and TV series like Sultana’s dream (1905), Glimpse (1938), Star Wars (1977), Terminator (1984-), Back to the Future II (1984), Start Trek (1987), Babylon 5 (1994), Dark Angel (2000), and RoboCop (2014) (Hossain, 1905; Noessel, 2015; technovelgy.com, n.d.; The Internet Speculative Fiction Database, n.d.; Wikipedia, 2024a). Kaag & Kreps (2014) commented: “Prior to 1980, drone warfare was largely the province of science fiction such as Frank Herbert’s Dune (1965) and Isaac Asimov’s Robot series.” Figure 1 presents significant steps in developing and using aerial drones for warfare.
This article examines the U.S. Army’s science fiction report on future warfare: Science Fiction: Visioning the
Future of Warfare 2030–2050 (U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative, 2016). A particular area of interest in the report is aerial drones in warfare. This article discusses how drones are described in stories in the sci-fi report. Drones are defined here as autonomous, semi-autonomous or remote-controlled aerial vehicles used for military purposes. These drones can be both armed and unarmed. The autonomy level of a drone can be measured on a scale from 0 to 5. A level of 0 indicates that there is no autonomy, meaning the drone is completely controlled by humans. In contrast, a level of 5 signifies full automation, where drones can utilize AI tools to autonomously plan their flights as self-learning systems. At levels 4 and 5, drones are equipped with the capability to sense their surroundings and navigate independently. (McNabb, 2019)
These “future“ drones will be compared to how drones are used in the Russo–Ukraine war between 2022 and 2024. This study examines how sci-fi visions of drones in warfare have materialized. The insights presented in this article are derived from publicly accessible sources.
Fig. 1: Drone timeline that includes important steps in the development of drones to be used in military purposes. Sources: (Budanovic, 2017; Connor, 2018; Curtiss-Sperry Aerial Torpedo at the Cradle of Aviation Museum, n.d.; Department of Defense Announces Successful Micro-Drone Demonstration, n.d.; Kettering Aerial Torpedo “Bug”, n.d.; ‘Teledyne FLIR Black Hornet Nano’, 2024; de Havilland Aircraft Museum, n.d.; Franke, 2023; Holman, 2009; Hunt, 2023; McConville, 2024; National Air and Space Museum, n.d.; O’Malley, n.d.; the Economist, 2022; Whittle, 2013; Wikipedia, 2024b)
Drones in The Russo-Ukraine war 2022–2024
Chávez (2023) emphasises that even though commercial and military drones have been used before in crises and wars, three characteristics distinguish the use of drones in the Russo-Ukraine war compared to other wars. Firstly, the scale of their use in this conflict is prevailing. Secondly, drones are used by Ukraine, in a total war against a significant power. Thirdly, tucking small UAVs into as many Russian and Ukrainian rucks as possible is an essential pivot in state military behavior. (Chávez, 2023). The Economist underlines that what is unique about the Russo-Ukraine war is the use of cheap, modified consumer drones. These are called FPV “first-person-view” drones, and their use is widespread in the war. (The Economist, 2024) Another unique feature in using drones in The Russo-Ukraine war exists: drones are also used for long-range attacks by both parties. (Zafra et al., 2024)
Both Russia and Ukraine are using military-grade drones and commercial drones for military purposes. Drones are used, for example, for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), targeting, jamming, strike missions, target acquisition, loitering, search, rescue, delivery of cargo, inflicting damage, monitoring, photography, videography, inspection, mapping, anti-jamming, and battle damage assessment. (Chávez, 2023; Hambling, 2024; Sotoudehfar & Sarkin, 2023)
Drones in sci-fi report by U.S. ARMY TRADOC Mad Scientist initiative
The research material chosen to examine aerial drones in science fiction was a US Army report entitled Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 (referred as sci-fi report in this article). In November 2016, the U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative launched its first science fiction writing competition, which was successful: over 150 submissions from authors in 10 different countries were submitted. Twenty-three of those stories were selected for the report. (U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative, 2016). The sci-fi report was selected as the research material for the following reasons. Firstly, it was written in 2016–2017, so it has been seven to eight years since the stories were created. Although the sci-fi report looks ahead to 2030–2050 and not 2024, it is interesting to see how today’s Russo-Ukraine war follows the visions of the future of war and drones since the sci-fi report was written in 2016. Secondly, the sci-fi report was compiled following a competition. Therefore, the range of submissions was broad, giving more expansive views of the future of warfare than if one or two people wrote it.
In the sci-fi report, drones are described in the executive summary as:
“Drones: The most commonly featured, spanned across all physical domains: Land, Air, Sea, and even Space. Sizes ranged from micro to the size of conventional aircraft and ships. Drones in the stories were smart, self-healing, self-learning, cognitively connected to users, and used in swarming across all domains, often autonomously.” (U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative, 2016)
The executive summary also underlines that “the advances in materials, AI, drones, communications, and human enhancement amplified and drove one another across multiple domains.” (U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative, 2016)
In this study, the report Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 was scanned for specific keywords related to drone technology. In this case, the drone technology of particular interest was aerial drones. The sci-fi report was also searched for related abbreviations such as UAV, RPV, UAS, and UCAV. Table 1. shows the prevalence of the words and abbreviations drone and UAV in the different stories. Abbreviations RPV, UAS, or UCAV did not appear in the stories. Table 1. shows that in the sci-fi report, the word drone appeared in almost all stories describing future warfare. Only three out of 23 stories did not mention drones. In two of these three stories, drones were depicted without using the terms drone or UAV. As a result, there was just one story that did not mention drones. This leads to the conclusion that the use of drones was highlighted in the sci-fi stories as some kind of tool for future warfare. It can also be argued that the sci-fi report viewed drones as essential for future combat operations.
Table 1: Word and abbreviations counts of drones and UAVs in various stories in the Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 report.
This study examined all 23 of the sci-fi report’s stories on future warfare in 2030–2050 and drones in these stories. This analysis examined how aerial drones were used in the stories and for what purposes. The stories also highlighted how drones were described and what technologies were attached to them. The following paragraphs review the features of aerial drones in future war narratives discussed in the sci-fi report and provide text examples of drones in the stories. For this paper, the stories in the sci-fi report have been numbered. The numbers of the stories and their correspondence with the headings are shown in Table 1.
As already mentioned, aerial drones appeared in almost all the stories. Other types of drones, such as drones moving on the ground, also appear in the stories, but they are not discussed in this paper. Aerial drones were either autonomous (flying and/or performing tasks by themselves with the guidance of AI), or semi-autonomous (able to do some tasks individually, but for some tasks humans are needed), and remote-controlled by humans.
There were certain common themes about the use of drones in the narratives. Firstly, drones were perceived as cheap tools. Secondly, they served multiple purposes, making them practical tools for various tasks. For example, drones frequently appear in narratives for surveillance, reconnaissance, and patrolling purposes. These drones were often equipped with various tools, like cameras and sensors, to enhance their capabilities. For instance, a temperature sensor in one narrative tracked individuals’ temperatures. In another story, a drone could analyse brain waves to identify who posed a threat and who did not. The following quotes are from different stories in the report. They show examples of the different ways in which drones are used in warfare in these sci-fi stories.
“A swarm of approaching camera drones fell from the sky and clattered onto the
floor.” (Story 12)
” Without anyone in the city knowing it, 200,000 tiny bots settled over the commercial and government district on rooftops and in trees, cataloging wireless networks, acting as cell site emulators, and measuring data volume through local networks to help with crowd analysis.” (Story 14)
“Both my angels lift off from my shoulders. Six more come off the shoulders of my team members. My display lights up again, projecting what each of my angels sees into my retinas. I can see the overlays of the town across my vision, every person, goat, and dog showing up as a blue heat signature, their body temperatures cooler than the ambient temperatures indoors and out. The angels also scan the skies.” (Story 1)
“The drone emitted an electromagnetic field that served as a medium for capturing individual human brainwave activity in the area.” (Story 12)
“…patrol drones secured the airspace against terrorist attack from that direction and had created a 3-D holographic diorama projection in a conference area in the mobile HQ.” (Story 16)
Instances where non-military organizations utilized drones for information collection can be regarded as a form of intelligence or data gathering. For instance, in real life news agencies have deployed drones to report on events in various stories (Youssef & Hervada, 2025). Likewise, the UN has also employed drones for similar purposes (Apuuli, 2014).
”I see icons for our drones, news drones, SkyChat drones, the Médecins Sans Frontières drone, the Human Rights Watch drone, several local government drones, and UN drones all around us, but no bogies or unknowns.” (Story 1)
Secondly, many stories in the report highlighted the utilization of drones as weapons in combat. For instance, drones attacked by either firing lasers or plasma weapons, or by dropping bombs on their targets. Another offensive tactic involved flying the drone with explosives into a target or triggering self-destruction.
”Our shoulder drones start shooting pulses at the drones in the swarm, trying to break their links.”
(Story 1)
“Next came the manned and unmanned US bombers, easily destroying North Korean command and control, fortifications, and logistics infrastructure.” (Story 16)
”Without need for further human-in-the-loop commands, the drone opened fire with massive plasma bolt cannons.” (Story 12)
“Two invisible 50 pound glide bombs were launched from a weapons drone loitering over 30 miles away and at 42,000 ft altitude.” (Story 18)
In addition to the applications mentioned above, drones were also used for other purposes, (mentioned only couple of times) in the report. These include evacuating casualties, transporting loads, collecting enemy DNA samples, jamming satellites and networks, releasing smoke, establishing networks, illuminating the surroundings, generating holograms, or producing displays.
“Air Force high altitude drones are in place now jamming the Russian cube-sats.” (Story 1)
“I rearm as the casevac drone completes a swift dive into the alley and hooks on to Al-Abadi’s suit.”
(Story 1)
“The best of the best of his troops – including his ever reliable state security troops and Special Forces units had everything – including contraband or copied western technology – such as advanced aerial drones for painting the night-time battlefield in infrared light…” (Story 16)
“The six sniffer drones released their smoke, obscuring the battlefield from the shooters.” (Story 9)
“He looked up as the quadcopter MEDEVAC drone approached and touched down on the mosque lawn area…” “he and Boorstin carried Grainger to it [MEDEVAC] and loaded him in the patient tube and zipped him in the trauma bag. The bag immediately inflated and began diagnostics and trauma treatments to stabilize him until the drone could land at the hospital. (Story 21)
Different visions for piloting drones were presented in the stories. Drones could either be remotely controlled or operate fully autonomously. In the wildest visions, biological birds were used as reconnaissance drones, and their senses were linked to humans so that humans could see or even smell the sensory perceptions received by the drones. The operator piloted these birds by affecting their needs and urges.
“Cade had received them [the birds that functioned as drones]from an asset of some sort in the area and infected them with the nano package that let him control them as well as pull down a full feed of what they saw, heard, and smelled.” (Story 2)
In numerous narratives, drones operate in swarms or flocks[1], typically characterized by small or tiny sizes. These swarms of drones either monitor their surroundings or conduct armed strikes against adversaries. In certain tales, the drones resemble small flying insects or birds that swarm in nature.
” First came the Swarm, a collective hive of what looked like miniature metallic dragonflies.” (Story 8)
” Mixed among the Army cots designed in the Vietnam conflict—never fix something that worked—were neat arrays and rows of micro-drones called Skippers and Gnats.” (Story 9)
“A flock of eagle UAVs could even network signals, share data on thermal updrafts and autonomously coordinate their surveillance for better coverage.” (Story 18)
In many narratives, the design of drones draws inspiration from the nature, particularly from birds and insects. For instance, one narrative features a drone modeled after an eagle, enabling it to launch attacks on other drones without being detected.
”She was taking out one of her ‘pets’ – it looked suspiciously like a hawk at first glance, but the cable running from the back of its head to her hand-held was enough to show it was bioware.” (Story 15)
” The thousands of almost microscopic, insectile drones woke as they fell, aware of each other and the hawk above them, spreading out as their autonomous systems came online. (Story 15)
In some stories, new material innovations made flying drones difficult to detect or even invisible to the enemy. They also helped the troops camouflage.
“We have unmanned stealth vehicles on flight standby.” (Story 17)
”Mini drones formed a protective layer over the group. Active, adaptive camouflage flickered across their metamaterial bodies, matching their colors to the terrain.” (Story 14)
In many stories drones were equipped with AI algorithms that guided their operations. Although many narratives don’t explicitly mention this, the involvement of artificial intelligence is implied when discussing autonomous drones. One story features drones with super-intelligence, enabling them to operate independently and exhibit human-like traits, emotions, and loyalty to their pilots. However, their reliance on algorithms also makes them susceptible to hijacking. In one narrative, consumer drones were seized and repurposed for military use.
“Liu would never understand where these bots learned loyalty” (Story 9)
“Allied drones and other weapons entering the zone were turned against their operators, or even more effectively, turned on nearby civilians for propaganda purposes.” (Story 12)
Discussion
In comparing the application of drones during the Russo-Ukraine conflict (2022–2024) and the findings presented in Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 report (2016–2017), this article examines whether the sci-fi report could anticipate the drone development what happened in Russo–Ukraine war seven to eight years subsequently. Although the sci-fi report extends to 2050, examining how drone development was anticipated in 2016-2017 is still intriguing.
The sci-fi report highlights some features of drones. They are compared to the features of drones in the Russo–Ukraine war through publicly available material like journal and magazine articles and videos. The features of drones that will be examined are, for example, the purpose of using drones and methods to pilot drones (autonomic or semi-autonomic). Table 2. shows the features that appeared in sci-fi reports, their appearance in the Russo-Ukraine war, and an example of mentions of them in publicly available media.
Table 2: Comparing drone use in Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 report and the Russo-Ukraine war (2022–2024).
| Feature of drones that appeared in Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 report | Do the drone features appear in the Russo–Ukraine war
2022–2024[2] |
Examples of mentions of the drone features in media |
| Use for surveillance, reconnaissance, monitoring and information gathering | YES | UKRAINA’s drones:
“Ukrainian tank-hunting teams use drones to find and stalk Russian vehicles with minimal risk” (the Economist, 2022) “[Ukrainian]Midnight Lab offers a range of drones, including a reconnaissance drone with an autopilot system that can continue to operate even if it loses signal… “ (Steavenson, 2023) RUSSIA’s drones: “The Orlan-10 was also used at the start of the full-scale war for reconnaissance and artillery fire adjustment.”(Kharuk, 2024) |
| Use as a weapon | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
“In the western city of Pskov drones reportedly hit an airport, damaging four transport planes.” (The Economist, 2023c) “But it [Ukrainan army] has also successfully used consumer drones for reconnaissance and to direct artillery fire, while larger “octocopters” (which have eight propellers) have destroyed Russian T-72 tanks by dropping anti-tank grenades. ”(The Economist, 2022a) RUSSIA’s drones: ”Since at least the fall of 2023, Russian drones have ravaged Beryslav, a small city near Kherson in southern Ukraine, right by the Dnipro River”(Felden et al., 2024) BOTH: “Drones are not just used on the battlefield: both Ukraine and Russia have hit targets hundreds of kilometres away from the front lines using long-range UAVs.”(Zafra et al., 2024) |
| Self-destructing drones, or loitering munition, (also: suicide drone, kamikaze drone, exploding drone) | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
“The light “kamikaze” drones used in Ukraine are cheap and lethal” (The Economist, 2023a) “[Ukrainian]Midnight Lab offers a range of drones, including a reconnaissance drone with an autopilot system that can continue to operate even if it loses signal, and a “kamikaze” one, packed with explosives, with a range of 20km “ (Steavenson, 2023) RUSSIA’s drones: “Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced on Friday that since September 2022, Russia has launched 8,060 Iranian-made Shahed 136 suicide drones at Ukraine…”(Iran International, 2024) “Russia uses two main types of kamikaze drones: the tactical ZALA Lancet and the strategic Shahed-131 and -136”(Kharuk, 2024) |
| Used as carrying things | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
“Ukraine Deploys British Windracers ULTRA Cargo Drones for Military Operations” (Shcherbak, 2024) “A company specializing in unmanned aerial vehicles has modified a drone to deliver vital medical supplies to Ukrainian civilians in hard-to-reach areas” (Luckenbaugh, 2022) |
| Use for evacuation and as an ambulance | NO | ”..Ukraine is testing that theory. It has already used large cargo drones, capable of carrying 180kg loads up to 70km, to evacuate wounded personnel, becoming the first country to conduct this sort of robotic medevac.”(The Economist, 2023b) (Ground drone) |
| Autonomous/ semi-autonomous drones | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
“Ukrainian developers have confirmed that their drones are now carrying out autonomous strikes on Russian forces without a human operator. This is the first time such drones are known to have been used, as UN allegations about autonomous attacks in Libya in 2020 remain unproven.” (Hambling, 2023) “[Ukrainian]Midnight Lab offers a range of drones, including a reconnaissance drone with an autopilot system that can continue to operate even if it loses signal… “ (Steavenson, 2023) |
| Drones with conscious artificial intelligence (feelings, loyalty) | NO | |
| Drone jamming or hacking | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
“On the vehicle’s roof are three mushroom-shaped antennas that make up separate drone-jamming equipment.”(Zafra et al., 2024) “Ukrainian forces say they found and attacked a Russian drone base after hacking a drone and geolocating the footage.”(Shoaib, 2002) BOTH: “Electronic warfare (EW) systems have proved to be the most effective way of stopping drones. Both sides use EW systems to jam radio frequencies in certain areas. When a drone’s signal is jammed, the pilot loses the ability to control the craft or can no longer see the video signal, depending on which frequency has been disrupted.”(Zafra et al., 2024) “At infantry level, smaller EW devices and “drone guns” are used to jam incoming UAVs.” (Zafra et al., 2024) |
| Drone flocks or swarm drones | YES on flock of drones, NOT for truly autonomuous swarm drones, yet they are tested and developed. | UKRAINE’s drones:
“It was described as a test launch, with many of the prototypes in the drone swarm experimental.” (The Economist, 2023c) “Ukraine is Developing Swarm Attack Drones Based on A.I. – Media” (Defense Express, 2024b) “How record 100-strong flock of Ukrainian drones vaporised vast Russian arsenal in ‘earthquake blast’” (The Sun, 2024) “The vast majority of drones in the war in Ukraine are remotely piloted and humans not machines remain the interface that manually coordinates the actions of multiple drones. Thus, there are no true drone swarms or cooperative autonomy. Drones usually operate together in stacks with pilots communicating via text chat in a virtual battle network or via cell phones.” (Pettyjohn, 2024) |
| Bird/insect inspired drones | NO | |
| Brain-Drone UI | NO | |
| Drone’s view connected to operators eyes | YES | UKRAINE’s drones:
”They are also known as First Person View (FPV) drones because the operator dons goggles that show a video feed from them as they fly. ”(The Economist, 2023a) |
| Consumer drones used for military purposes | YES | BOTH:
”They’re [Chinese DJI commercial drones] also a hot commodity for troops on both sides of the Ukraine war.” (Myre, 2023) “In Ukraine both sides have been buying cheap consumer drones. (the Economist, 2022) |
| News drones reporting conflicts | YES | “Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War, multiple news medias around the world have introduced drones to continuously report this war from the perspectives of multi angles, which makes the reporting of Russia–Ukraine War around the clock.”(Yan, 2024) |
Table 2 shows the following similarities and differences when comparing the science fiction report and the Russia-Ukraine war. In both cases, drones were used for or surveillance, reconnaissance, monitoring and information gathering and as weapons, either delivering direct firepower or acting self-destructively by detonating on target.
The sci-fi report mentions drones being used for evacuation and as flying ambulances. However, no evidence of airborne drone ambulances being deployed in Ukraine exists. Instead, Ukraine is using large cargo drones to transport injured soldiers, but these drones operate on the ground. (Nikolov, 2024)
In the sci-fi report, drones were often equipped with artificial intelligence, making them highly autonomous. They could even decide whether to fire or not independently. In the Russo-Ukraine war, the level of autonomy varies widely. A pilot on the ground fully controls some drones. However, some drones have some degree of autonomy, allowing them to move independently in situations where, for example, the pilot and the drone lose contact. There is no evidence yet in the media that drones are fully autonomous at the level of autonomy 5. The next step in the development of artificial intelligence is artificial general intelligence, AGI, where machines can think like humans (McKinsey, n.d.). In one story in the sci-fi report, drones seem to have emotions. They are loyal to their owners, and they have feelings for humans. In 2024, AGI will remain absent, and it is not being utilized in the Russo-Ukraine conflict.
Electronic devices, whether wired or wireless, including drones, are perpetually vulnerable to hacking and jamming. In the sci-fi report, hacking makes drones hostile towards their pilots. Similarly, drones are utilized for jamming or they fall victim to jamming themselves. Currently, drone jamming techniques are employed in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. Steavenson (2023) lift the importance of jamming in future wars: “The drone war has evolved into a technological race: to jam, and to be unjammable. Currently, both Ukraine and Russia are developing drones with AI-guiding systems that cannot be jammed traditionally (Zafra et al., 2024). Russian forces have recently introduced FPV drones that are operated using fiber optic cables. This technology ensures the drones are resistant to jamming. However, a drawback is that the connection is lost if the cable is severed. (Defense Express, 2024a)
Sci-fi report also consisted invisible drones constructed from metamaterials, which can render objects invisible. For instance, the invisibility cloak portrayed in the Harry Potter films could potentially be realised with metamaterials (Wright & Cobbold, 2009). In contrast, today’s the hard-to-detect drones of today do not utilise metamaterials; instead, they rely on stealth technology. Stealth drones and various techniques for evading radar detection have been employed in the Russo-Ukraine war.
A sci-fi report depicts drones operating in swarms, reminiscent of birds or insects. Is this becoming a reality? To some extent, yes. Already now massive flocks of drones (= large number of individual drones) are used in the attacks in the Russo-Ukraine war (The Sun, 2024). However, swarm drones are more developed than flocks and they are still mainly in a test phase. Advancements are underway toward their use in coordinated groups. The Ukrainian forces plan to deploy AI-powered swarm drones designed to coordinate simultaneous attacks (Defense Express, 2024b).
There appears to be no evidence of the use of drones mimicking birds or insects in the Russo-Ukraine war. Currently, these military drones are in the development stage. For instance, the Chinese Jiaolong Commandos have published a video showcasing a biomimetic military drone that mimics the appearance of a bird, roughly the size of a pigeon and a sparrow, featuring flapping wings (Trevithick, 2024). Even dead birds are used in experiments for military drones (New Scientist, 2023). Research on drones that imitate birds and insects, known as biomimicry, is being conducted in various institutes and laboratories worldwide (Choi et al., 2012; Dufour et al., 2016; Karásek, 2014; Khan et al., 2009) .
In discussing drone user interfaces, the sci-fi report presents the retina-drone interface. The closest innovation referenced is called amalgamated vision (www.amalgatedvision.com). Rather than traditional eyeglasses, this technology employs a headband that projects images straight onto the retina. This technology hasn’t been implemented in the Russo-Ukrainian war, as it is still under development. Nevertheless, VR goggles are currently being used for piloting FPV drones.
In the sci-fi report, drones are also operated through a brain-computer user interface. There is currently no evidence of this technology being used to pilot drones in the Russo–Ukraine war. Nevertheless, many institutes and organisations, such as the Russian company Neurobotics, are researching this technology. (Lu & Ko, 2024; Satam, 2023)
The peculiarity of the Russo–Ukraine war is how commercially available drones have begun to be used for military operations. The sci-fi report describes one such case of commercial drones being hijacked for military use, but the report does not explicitly highlight the use of commercial drones. The sci-fi report also does not discuss the drone DIY culture that is now taking place in Ukraine. In Ukraine, hobbyists are building drones from available electronic components for military operations and parts of the drones can be 3D printed and assembled in garages. (The Economist, 2023c and 2024). Another topic that the sci-fi report doesn’t talk about is crowdsourcing drones. Now, the war in Ukraine has become “everybody’s war”. Anyone can donate drones to the war in Ukraine through various project sites like ukrainedefensesupport.org. (The Economist, 2022b).
Conclusions
This article examined how science fiction has visioned transformations in future wars by analysing drone use in the U.S. military Mad Scientist report Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030–2050 (written in 2016), and drone use in Russo–Ukrainian war during 2022-2024. Although the sci-fi report was written with 2030–2050 in mind, the author found it interesting to examine whether some visions have already been realised in the current Russo-Ukrainian war. Almost every story in this science fiction report highlighted drones’ use in warfare. This suggests that the report aptly depicted the future of combat by highlighting drones as a central component. This is what has happened now in Russo–Ukraine war. In the sci-fi report, drones were utilised, much like in the real life in current Russo–Ukrainian conflict, for purposes such as reconnaissance, launching strikes, and transporting goods.
While some drone technologies featured in the sci-fi report remain unrealised, many are actively being examined in research facilities and military organisations. Thus, in the future, even the most visionary ideas from sci-fi report could emerge in future battles. These include for example combining technology and biology in drones so that we can remotely control living creatures, for example birds, for different tasks, using strong artificial intelligence in drones to make them fully autonomous (level 5), intelligent and even sentient, and combining human senses and thinking with drones.
The science fiction report failed, however, in its visions of social change concerning drone warfare. The Russia–Ukraine war has highlighted a couple of non-technical issues in the use of drones: the conversion of (citizens’) commercial drones to military use and the crowdsourcing of drone warfare through various online campaigns.
The conclusions drawn from this article suggest that using science fiction to anticipate aspects of warfare proves advantageous. Science fiction can be a valuable resource for creating future military scenarios that allow military organisations to prepare for different types of possible enemy attacks. Sci-fi could also be inspirational for military organisations when considering new technological innovations.
In the future, warfare is expected to have a growing impact on civilians. To better understand how drones might be utilized in upcoming conflicts, it is important to explore not only science fiction narratives but also the various reports from different organizations regarding the diverse applications of drones. For example, (Interpol, 2022) has investigated the use of drones as air traffic disruption, and RAND has investigated how drones can be used illegally in prisons (Russo et al., 2024). To envision the future of warfare with drones, we must boldly examine their diverse civilian applications, as the boundary between war and civilian life becomes increasingly blurred.
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- By definition flock of drones is a large number of individual drones that follow pre-determined mission orders and collectively perform a specific task (see for example Wright, 2018) . However, swarm drones are more developed than flocks. They have five characteristics: 1) mass: from a couple of units to thousands of units, 2) diversity: the swarm can be heterogenous, 3) collective and collaborative behaviour, 4) inter-swarm communication; and 5) autonomy and decentralisation (UNIDIR — the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, 2020). ↑
- This does not mean this is the first time these drone features exist. Drones may been used for these purposes before the Russo–Ukraine war. ↑