Article
Shams Hamid1, Sobia Anwer2*, Salman Ahmed Khatani3
1Dean, Faculty of Arts, Fashion Design, Education and Social Sciences, Founding Director, IMAGINE – Institute of Futures Studies, Iqra University,
2Associate Futurist, IMAGINE-Institute of Futures Studies, lecturer, Iqra University
3SeniorAssociate Futurist, IMAGINE-Institute of Futures Studies, Seniorlecturer, Iqra University
Abstract
Futures literacy is the ability to think critically and creatively about the future, and to understand the complex interplay of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological factors that shape it. Futures literacy is important in times of climate crisis because it helps individuals and communities to understand the potential consequences of climate change and to make informed decisions about how to respond to it. Designing a future literacy lab focused on adapting to climate-driven change in Pakistan and teaching futures literacy skills is a critical need of our time. The purpose of this study was to design the Futures Literacy Lab to develop futures literacy skills to adapt to the climate change scenarios in Pakistan. By equipping people with the knowledge and skills necessary to understand the impacts of climate change and to develop strategies to effectively respond to it, they can better prepare for the future. The Institute of Futures Studies, IMAGINE, has utilized a teaching approach called “III Approach” (Intuition, Interpretation, Innovation) to help future learners use their full range of cognitive abilities, including intuition, reason, emotions, and imagination. This approach empowers individuals to envision and create compelling and sustainable future narratives, as well as strategic plans and actionable steps for achieving those visions. After the completion of three days of FLL this paper suggests that futures literacy is valuable for climate change adaptation, Futures literacy provides a way to think creatively and imaginatively about possible futures, which can help to identify potential risks and opportunities for climate change adaptation. Secondly, Climate change is a long-term and ongoing issue and therefore requires long-term thinking and planning for effective adaptation measures.
Keywords
Climate Change, Futures Studies, Futures Literacy, Futures Literacy Lab, III Approach
Introduction
Climate change is a global crisis and a threat to biodiversity, natural resources, habitats, and human societies. Human activities have exacerbated the problem, leading to frequent natural disasters, environmental degradation, conflicts, economic imbalance, health issues, and food and water insecurities. (Portner et al., 2022).
The 2022 IPCC report shows that investments in natural climate solutions are inadequate, particularly in developing nations near the equator, where funding gaps are significant. The COP27, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt brought together international leaders to collaborate on achieving global climate objectives set forth in the Paris Agreement and the Convention. At the conference, discussions revolved around finance, with a focus on establishing a “Loss and damage fund” and reforming the financial system to support nation-wide and ecological climate objectives. The G77 group, consisting of 134 countries, pushed for establishing financial services for vulnerable countries.
Climate Driven Flood in Pakistan and Its Impact
Climate-driven floods in Pakistan have caused significant damage and displacement, with over 33 million people impacted, 1,559 deaths, and destruction of houses and infrastructure. This has resulted in the outbreak of waterborne diseases like typhoid and malaria. The total damage caused by the floods is estimated to be around $30 billion, equivalent to 10% of Pakistan’s GDP (Pakistan, 2022; World Bank Group, 2022; Magramo, 2022).
Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with a range of potential impacts that could have serious consequences for the country (Iqbal, 2022). Some of the key areas of concern include:
- Pakistan is facing a water crisis, and climate change could worsen the situation due to changes in precipitation patterns and glacial melt in the Himalayas that could reduce water availability in the Indus River basin (Hussain & Mumtaz, 2014; Maqbool, 2022).
- Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to climate change could significantly impact crop yields in Pakistan, potentially leading to food insecurity (Aslam, 2016).
- Sea level rise could cause flooding and saltwater intrusion, affecting coastal communities in Pakistan (Kanwal, 2022).
- Climate change could increase the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria in Pakistan (Shah et al., 2020).
Lack of Futures Literacy and Foresight
The Executive Summary of Vision 2025 (Pakistan Vision 2025, n.d.) highlights the importance of having a clear and unified vision for a nation’s long-term aspirations to create a roadmap for effective policy implementation. A lack of such vision can lead to confusion, indecision, and ineffective governance, making it challenging to prioritize resources and investments. Articulating long-term aspirations can foster national purpose and unity, enabling critical decision-making and actions to realize a nation’s full potential.
Futures Literacy in Times of Climate Crisis
Futures literacy is the ability to critically and creatively think about the future and understand the complex interplay of social, economic, and technological factors that shape it. It is important in times of climate crisis because it helps individuals and communities to understand the potential consequences of climate change, and to make informed decisions about how to respond to it. A futures literacy lab is a structured learning environment that helps people develop these skills. (Mangnus.et al, 2021; Miller, 2018)
Lack of Long-Term Future Thinking and Planning
Pakistan’s economic planning has often focused on short-term goals and macroeconomic stabilization, neglecting to link policies with long-term plans (Rabbi & Memmon, 2017). This has resulted in a lack of sustained progress and an inability to effectively address the underlying structural issues that limit economic growth.
According to the Global Competitiveness Index 2017-2018 report by the World Economic Forum (2017), Pakistan’s score is dragged down by its relatively weak performance in the institutions, infrastructure, and business sophistication pillars, all of which are critical for long-term planning and development.
Adopting a more strategic approach with a commitment to investing in necessary areas and a long-term perspective could create a stable and predictable environment for growth and achieve key priorities and opportunities for development.
Why Futures Literacy is Crucial in Today’s World – Experts Opinion
At the conference, global experts shared their insights on the importance of Futures Literacy in navigating today’s world of uncertainty. Here are some of the key takeaways from their discussions.
Shermon Cruz suggested that the climate crisis is already happening to anticipate its impacts effectively. The Philippine Congress declared a climate emergency two years ago in Manila, where the crisis has been disrupting the city, which has been used to analyze, study, prepare, and respond to the crisis in the short and long term. To promote resilience and anticipate the unknown impacts of climate change, the speaker developed a game called “Dreams and Disruptions,” which has been introduced globally. The game aims to help people anticipate the unknown impacts of climate change, particularly in the context of a crisis, and how it will affect our perception of the future, our relationship with risk, preparation, and resilience (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2023a).
Jean-Eric Aubert talked about the role of think tanks in relation to climate change is to provide informed insights, based on a solid understanding of the science and potential consequences, and facilitate necessary changes to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This involves convincing decision-makers to take action while educating the general public through coordinated efforts that include education, media campaigns, and the use of compelling scientific data and imagery (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2023)
Peter C. Bishop suggested that teaching Futures Literacy to young people can prepare them for climate crises and enable them to guide leaders towards making decisions that align with their values. However, it is not commonly taught in schools, which is why Teach the Future aims to educate and introduce Futures Thinking to schools. By doing so, young people can become active citizens and consumers who can influence political and business establishments to take action. However, teaching Futures Literacy requires balancing the interests of various stakeholders (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2023a).
Loes Damhof emphasized the importance of Futures thinking and anticipation in the context of climate change and climate justice. Despite different experiences related to climate change, it’s important to recognize that we’re all in this together and to work towards impactful solutions. Futures thinking helps to diversify assumptions about the future, identify blind spots, and consider multiple possibilities. The article emphasizes the need to challenge underlying systems and worldviews that contribute to the problem of climate change and move towards climate justice (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2022).
Jerome C. Glenn stated that futures literacy is a way of understanding the future that allows individuals and organizations to anticipate and navigate future uncertainties. It promotes an open-minded approach to new ideas and information and can expand knowledge about the future. Futures thinking encourages proactive solutions to novel problems such as climate change and seeks to break free from limiting beliefs to explore new possibilities for a better future (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2022a).
Riel Miller talked about the importance of having a broader perspective and developing futures literacy when making decisions in the present. By considering multiple futures, individuals and organizations can better anticipate and adapt to change and avoid pitfalls from narrow thinking. The article uses the example of using technology, such as Google Maps, during Hurricane Katrina relief efforts to enhance futures literacy and improve decision-making. The article concludes that developing futures literacy is essential for creating more resilient and sustainable systems and communities (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2022a) .
Dr. John A. Sweeney suggested that future literacy can be a helpful tool in preparing for the climate crisis, but it is not a replacement for basic humanitarian aid. Once basic needs are met, future literacy can help people understand and imagine possibilities for the future, leading to a better understanding of the crisis and a more dynamic response. Future literacy can help us reimagine how the future can be and how we can shape it, assess our own agency, and respond to the crisis more effectively (Imagine Institute of Futures Studies, 2022c).
Futures Literacy Lab (FLL) In Pakistan
It is important to design a Futures Literacy Lab (FLL) in Pakistan to create strategies for adapting to climate change scenarios due to its significant and complex challenge that is already affecting communities and ecosystems (Reis et al., 2020). The FLL approach can help people in Pakistan better understand and anticipate the challenges and opportunities that may arise in different climate change scenarios by building futures literacy skills and knowledge (Bergheim, 2018; Miller, 2013). This can help build resilience and reduce the negative impacts of climate change on communities, economies, and ecosystems. The success of FLLs depends on interdisciplinary and participatory approaches that encourage systems thinking and collaborative, cross-sectoral solutions to address multiple goals and perspectives (Abdullah, 2022; Sareen & Shrivastava, 2021). These labs facilitate transformational learning by challenging assumptions, promoting diverse perspectives, and co-creating new solutions for addressing climate change (Miller, 2018; Cagnin, 2018).
Fig. 1: Futures Literacy Laboratories (FLL) in practice (Reil Miller, 2018)
Designing Futures Literacy Labs for Sustaining Climate Change
Designing Futures Literacy Labs for Sustaining Climate Change is a critical need of our time. To address this need, IMAGINE – Institute of Futures Studies organized a three day Futures Literacy Lab as a part of a hybrid international conference, ‘IMAGINE – Sustaining Climate Crisis (ISCC),’ held on Friday, 2 December till Sunday, 4 December 2022. The event celebrated World Futures Day with UNESCO Futures Literacy Chairs, Representatives, Asia Pacific Futures Network, Natcom, and friends from around the world.
Students, academics from various disciplines including health sciences, information technology, education, media sciences, management sciences, social sciences, futures studies, community workers, business persons and politicians, who attended the conference gained insights into the field of futures studies and its significance in creating sustainable solutions for climate change. Participants listened to interviews and panel discussions with experts from various disciplines, including climate scientists, policymakers, and community leaders. They gained insights into the challenges of climate change and ways to develop sustainable and resilient communities. The conference emphasized the importance of collaborative efforts and engagement with local communities to create effective solutions to climate change.
The IMAGINE – Sustaining Climate Crisis (ISCC) conference included a three-day futures literacy lab focused on anticipation, strategic foresight, and futures thinking to prepare for potential environmental, technological, financial, and geopolitical challenges. The conference aimed to deepen the understanding of climate sustainability, identify gaps in existing knowledge, and highlight areas for future research and innovation. Experts provided recommendations for policymakers and practitioners to ensure policy and practice remain responsive to community needs and challenges.
Fig. 2: Participants of the Futures Literacy Lab (FLL) at Iqra University
Developing Futures Literacy Skills and Addressing Climate Change in Pakistan
The Futures Literacy Lab was designed to equip people with the necessary knowledge and skills to understand the impacts of climate change and develop strategies to respond to it effectively, given that climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pakistan. By developing futures literacy skills through the lab, individuals can prepare for the future by anticipating and navigating the uncertainties of the future (Inayatullah 2003), The lab’s aim is to enable people to understand the implications of climate change, the importance of adaptation, and how to use these insights to create positive change in their communities (Cruz and Mendoza, 2022), to construct knowledge and skillsets that enable communities to build more robust and resilient systems in the face of climate change (Raleigh et al. 2018) , which is crucial in the case of Pakistan. Through the Futures Literacy Lab, individuals can expand their knowledge, gain insights about the future, and become proactive in finding solutions to address climate change in Pakistan.
Designing a futures literacy lab to address climate change scenarios in Pakistan involved several key steps.
- Identify the specific climate change challenges and scenarios relevant to Pakistan.
- Analyze data on current and projected climate impacts, such as rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea level rise.
- Involve stakeholders in the design process, including students, academics, non-profit organizations, and community groups.
- Select appropriate methods and tools for teaching and learning, such as lectures, discussions, simulations, and hands-on activities, tailored to the participants’ needs and learning styles.
III Approach for Futures Literacy Lab
The future only exists in the imagination, and its creation relies on envisioning desirable outcomes and planning accordingly. As stated by Futures Literacy (2020), “futures exist only in imagination and can only be imagined to create a desirable future.”
The IMAGINE Institute of Futures Studies employs a comprehensive approach to learning, utilizing all human faculties including intuition, reason, emotions, and imagination. This holistic method of learning is aimed at promoting collective action towards the creation of desirable futures.
The III approach, that uses Intuition, Interpretation, and Innovation is a pedagogical approach that places the learner at the center of the learning process, encourages participation and engagement from the learner, and aims to facilitate transformation and change through the learning experience.
The III Approach helps to elicit, reframe, and rethink intuitive future scenarios. This journey begins with interaction and brainstorming to elicit intuitive future scenarios. Then, through reflection, introspection, and meditation the underlying assumptions are identified and assessed for their validity for reframing. Meditation and introspection is especially important for analyzing emotions and identifying biases and beliefs that may be affecting one’s intuitive thinking. Finally, applying creative imagination to rethink the assumptions, alternative future scenarios are created. Creative imagination is crucial in enabling individuals to break free from habitual patterns of thinking and see the future from different perspectives by varying underlying assumptions, biases, and beliefs.
Futures literacy labs and the III Approach (Intuition, Interpretation, and Innovation) are effective tools for addressing climate change challenges by providing a deeper understanding and creative solutions. The benefits of future literacy labs were highlighted in ISCC (Imagine – Sustaining Climate Crises) conference, where experts from different fields came together to address climate change challenges. The III approach enables participants to identify opportunities for transformative change. Designing Futures Literacy Labs for sustaining climate change in Pakistan shows how these labs can promote participatory, interdisciplinary, and futures-oriented approaches to learning and innovation to build adaptive capacity to climate change.
Three-Day Futures Literacy Lab
In this FLL, three facilitators facilitated 50 participants and used the III approach (Intuition, Interpretation, and Innovation), UNESCO futures literacy workshop steps (Reveal, reframe and rethink) (Miller, 2018), and futures triangle (Inayatullah, 2013) to develop future literacy skill, and participants expected and preferred future stories related to the climate driven change in Pakistan.
Day One
Stakeholders come up with their intuitive responses about climate crises in Pakistan through brainstorming. Brainstorming sessions held during futures literacy lab encouraged multidisciplinary discussions and debates, bringing together experts from various fields to reveal new insights and perspectives on climate crisis challenges.
Then participants considered Pakistan’s vulnerability as per the Global Climate Risk Index and its small carbon emission footprint (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, n.d.). Despite this, Pakistan still accounts for around 0.50% of the world’s global share of carbon emissions (Ramirez & Dewan, 2022; Eckstein et al., 2021)).
Futures triangle is a valuable tool for exploring potential pathways for resilience and adaptation in the context of climate change. This tool helped participants develop a more nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing Pakistan, drawing on lessons learned from the devastating megafloods the country experienced a decade ago. The futures triangle tool is useful for thinking about the complex interplay between different factors that can shape the future (Fergnani, 2020).
Futures Triangle can be applied to the issue of climate change in Pakistan in a few different ways:
- Scenario planning: Participants use the Futures Triangle to identify possible future scenarios for Pakistan regarding climate change, including a “business as usual” scenario and a “policy intervention” scenario (Khan et al., 2021).
- Identifying key drivers and uncertainties: Through the Futures Triangle, key drivers and uncertainties that will shape the future of climate change in Pakistan are identified, such as the pace of technological innovation, population growth, and international cooperation on climate change.
- Prioritizing issues: The Futures Triangle is used to identify the most pressing issues that need to be addressed concerning climate change in Pakistan, such as the impacts of sea level rise or the threat of water scarcity. (Waqas, Rahman, Ali & Rasheed, 2021)
- Identifying opportunities: The Futures Triangle is used to identify potential opportunities that climate change could bring to Pakistan, such as developments in renewable energy technology or increasing demand for climate-resilient infrastructure. (Rayan, Gruehn & Khayyam, 2022)
Futures Triangle technique helped participants to uncover their future story and gain valuable insight into potential solutions and innovative approaches to address both present and future challenges. Following are the outcomes of using Futures Triangle.
Fig. 3: The Futures Triangle (Sohail Inayatullah, 2008)
Weights of the past
- Participants anticipate more frequent floods in Pakistan due to climate change.
- Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the devastating impacts of climate change, requiring immediate action to protect the environment and reduce carbon emissions.
- The challenges faced in building a sustainable future in Pakistan are compounded by past government negligence, societal attitudes, population growth, and a lack of awareness.
- Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed significantly to climate change, resulting in rising temperatures and extreme weather events.
The push of the present
The issues in providing relief to climate-driven floods victims of Pakistan:
- Lack of Government Resources: Pakistan’s government lacks the resources to provide adequate relief to climate-driven flood victims due to inadequate budget allocation and a lack of funds for relief efforts (Hussain et al., 2020).
- Inadequate Relief Efforts: Relief efforts provided by the government and international organizations are often inadequate due to lack of coordination and slow response times (Hussain et al., 2020).
- Political Instability: Political instability in Pakistan has caused a lack of trust between the government and people, making it difficult to provide relief to flood victims (Akbar & Aldrich, 2015).
- Poor Infrastructure: Poor infrastructure in Pakistan has hindered relief efforts due to a lack of transportation infrastructure in affected areas (Ashraf et al., 2013).
- Lack of Awareness: There is a lack of awareness among the people of Pakistan about climate-driven floods and the need for relief efforts due to a lack of education and awareness campaigns conducted by the government (Mustafa et al., 2015).
Pull of the future
- Increase public awareness and education about climate change impacts.
- Advocate for increased international funding for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
- Develop and implement climate-friendly policies and regulations.
- Increase the capacity of the Pakistani government to respond to climate-related risks.
- Encourage public-private partnerships for climate-friendly projects.
- Support research and development of climate-friendly technologies.
Elicited Expected Future Story of Climate Driven Change in Pakistan
The expected future story of climate-driven change in Pakistan was one where extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, become more frequent and intense, leading to widespread displacement and loss of life. The country’s already strained water resources could be further depleted, causing conflicts over access to water and exacerbating social and economic inequality. This could result in widespread poverty and a breakdown of societal structures.
In addition, rising sea levels could lead to the loss of valuable coastal land, displacing millions of people and causing further economic upheaval. The increase in temperature could also lead to decreased crop yields and food shortages, exacerbating existing food insecurity and leading to further social unrest.
Furthermore, climate-driven changes could lead to increased migration and refugee crises, as people flee from the worst affected areas in search of safety and security. This could place additional strain on already overwhelmed systems of governance and infrastructure, leading to increased social and political instability.
There are also opportunities for Pakistan to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. For example, investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency could reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, improving water management practices, investing in drought-resistant crops and livestock, and promoting ecosystem restoration could help to increase resilience to climate change impacts.
The expected future story included environmental degradation, economic instability, social unrest, and political turmoil. The expected future story of climate-driven change in Pakistan will depend on a complex interplay of environmental, social, and economic factors, as well as the decisions and actions of policymakers, businesses, and communities. It is therefore important for all stakeholders to work together to create a more sustainable and resilient future for Pakistan.
At the end of the lab, participants engage in introspection by visualizing their expected climate-driven changes in Pakistan ten years from now. This process begins with a meditation exercise, which helps participants gain a deeper insight into their expectations, anxieties, and hopes for the future. By reflecting on their hopes, fears, and preferences for the future, participants gain clarity on the expected future they envision and how they feel about it. This introspective process can be a powerful tool for informing their actions and strategies for the future.
Day Two
On the second day, participants applied the Futures Literacy Lab step of Reframing one of the UNESCO techniques of FLL to find creative solutions and developed a sense of hope for the future (Cagnin, 2018). Participants were asked to reframe climate change in Pakistan. The reframing technique used in Futures Literacy Labs to help individuals and communities to think differently about the future and to explore new possibilities. It involves changing how a problem or issue is framed or described to see it in a new light or to identify new solutions (Miller, 2018).
Reframing involves critically examining and introspecting underlying assumptions that shape perceptions of a particular issue or scenario including facts, data, logical inferences, as well as emotional assumptions such as hopes, fears, and preferences. By identifying and challenging these assumptions, individuals can shift their mindset and generate new ideas and insights that inform their actions and strategies for the future. Reframing is a valuable tool in futures literacy labs, helping participants break out of mental constraints, overcome biases, and identify new opportunities for action or intervention.
Through the interpretive lens of the III Approach, participants understand their expected future stories developed using Futures Triangle and thoughtfully consider their implications. Reflecting on their expected future stories, Facilitators asked them about their hopes, fears, and preferences to identify their underlying assumptions for their expected story and to critically assess their identified assumptions.
Challenging assumptions helped them to identify and question the underlying assumptions that shape their thinking about the future. They now open up new perspectives and explore new possibilities by challenging these assumptions. This helped them to move towards their preferred future story.
Reframing – underlying assumptions
- Climate change will continue to have significant impacts on Pakistan, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events, water scarcity, rising sea levels, and decreased crop yields.
- These impacts will result in displacement, loss of life, economic instability, social unrest, and political turmoil.
- The effects of climate change will be felt disproportionately by the most vulnerable communities in Pakistan, exacerbating existing social and economic inequalities.
- There are opportunities for adaptation and mitigation that could help to reduce the impacts of climate change.
- The impacts of climate change are based on scientific evidence and are therefore likely to occur.
- The potential effects of climate change on Pakistan are based on an understanding of the country’s environmental, social, and economic systems and their interrelationships.
- There is concern about the impacts of climate change on Pakistan and the well-being of its people. There is a desire to create a more sustainable and resilient future for Pakistan.
Participants engage in a meditation exercise to reflect on the identified assumptions and explore how they feel about them. By focusing on the assumptions that were identified and critically reflected upon during the reframing process, participants gain a deeper understanding of their emotional responses to different scenarios and possibilities for the future. This introspective process can help individuals to develop a more nuanced and complex understanding of their hopes, fears, and preferences for the future, and how these may influence their actions and strategies. Through meditation and reflection, participants develop a more mindful and intentional approach to futures thinking, which enhances their capacity for futures literacy and strategic decision-making.
Day Three
On the last day of the UNESCO Futures Literacy Lab, participants reflect on what they have learned and use the story of their expected future to guide this reflection. Rethinking is an essential part of the Futures Literacy process, enabling individuals and communities to challenge established beliefs and promote innovative thinking for lasting change. By shifting perspectives, thinking critically, and exploring new options, individuals and organizations can anticipate potential risks and develop proactive strategies to address them (Miller, 2018).
During the rethinking stage of a futures literacy lab, the III (Intuition, Interpretation, and Innovation) approach was a valuable tool for helping participants to challenge and modify their assumptions about the future. This was achieved by asking “what if” questions related to their assumptions, with the goal of creating a preferred future story. The III approach involved engaging with multiple ways of knowing, including intuitive insights, interpretation of facts and data, reflection, introspection, and creative imagination, in order to generate a more holistic understanding of the future.
By challenging assumptions and exploring alternative scenarios through the use of creative imagination, participants broaden their understanding of the future and identify new opportunities for action or intervention. For example, the question was “What if we prioritize community-driven initiatives to address climate change?” or “What if we shift towards regenerative agricultural practices?” By considering these alternative scenarios and imagining a preferred future story, participants developed a clearer vision of the future they want to create and identified strategies for achieving that future.
This exercise was particularly useful for individuals and organizations looking to become more proactive, innovative, and resilient in the face of complex and uncertain futures. By engaging with the III approach, participants developed a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping the future, and identified potential challenges and opportunities that they may have previously overlooked.
Rethinking – policy recommendations for climate-driven change in Pakistan
- Increase Renewable Energy Sources: Focus on increasing solar, wind, and hydropower to reduce reliance on fossil fuels (Tribune, 2022).
- Improve Water Management: Enhance irrigation systems, construct dams, and invest in water conservation technologies (Ali, Rahut & Mottaleb, 2018).
- Enhance Adaptation Strategies: Develop drought-resistant crops and climate-resilient infrastructure (Pakistan to Develop National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change | Global Adaptation Network (GAN), n.d.).
- Promote Sustainable Agriculture: Promote agroforestry, organic farming, and integrated pest management to increase carbon sequestration capacity (Mazhar, et.al, 2021).
- Strengthen Climate Change Education and Awareness: Increase efforts to educate and raise awareness about climate change impacts (Ali & Erenstein, 2017).
- Secure International Funding: Apply for grants and leverage public-private partnerships to secure funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (Pakistan, 2022).
- Suggestion for Government: Establish a monitoring and evaluation body, strengthen environmental regulation and enforcement, adopt adaptive governance approaches, develop strategic partnerships with the private sector, and allocate resources from public and private investment funds to finance green initiatives (Jeelani et.al 2021).
Elicited Preferred Future Story of Climate Driven Change in Pakistan
A preferred future story for Pakistan in the context of climate change could involve a concerted effort by individuals, communities, and the government to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. This could include a shift towards renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition, communities could work to improve water conservation and management practices to ensure adequate access to water resources in the face of changing climate patterns. This could involve the construction of rainwater harvesting systems, the implementation of water-saving technologies, and the restoration of natural water storage systems such as wetlands.
Furthermore, the government could prioritize investment in infrastructure and policies to support sustainable development, such as improving public transportation systems, promoting green building practices, and supporting sustainable agriculture.
A preferred future story for Pakistan in the context of climate change involves a collective effort to prioritize sustainability and resilience, while taking action to reduce the impact of climate change on communities and the environment.
The participants of the conference engaged in introspection and meditation on day three, which helped them reflect on their desired future story, anticipate risks, develop proactive strategies, reduce stress, and clear their minds for greater focus. Meditation and mindfulness practices can help individuals deepen their understanding of their relationship with the environment, increase motivation for sustainable choices, and foster compassion for the earth and its inhabitants in addressing the climate crisis.
Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Futures Literacy Lab
The FLL lab in a developing country contributed to the broader discourse on climate change adaptation by highlighting the specific challenges and opportunities facing Pakistan in relation to climate change. This helped to develop futures literacy and raise awareness of the importance of climate adaptation in the region and stimulate further research and innovation in this field.
Designing a FLL on adapting to climate crises in Pakistan using the III approach makes a significant contribution to the field of Futures Studies in several ways. The III approach can be an effective and replicable method in conducting futures literacy labs.
It provides a unique perspective on climate adaptation in a specific geographical and cultural context. This was valuable for academics, policymakers, and practitioners interested in developing similar initiatives in Pakistan or other regions facing similar challenges.
Climate Change Adaptation through Futures Literacy Labs in Pakistan
Future work on Futures Literacy Labs (FLL) includes further development and refinement for use in other contexts and sustainability challenges beyond climate change (Slaughter, 2008; Kazemier et al., 2021), scaling up and institutionalizing FLL as a tool for promoting adaptive capacity and sustainability more broadly (Strong & Bishop, 2011), evaluating and assessing their impact on building adaptive capacity and promoting sustainable practices (Bergheim, 2022), cross-cultural and international comparisons, and identifying best practices and lessons learned (Bergheim, 2022; Thomas & Gupta, 2021), and collaboration and knowledge-sharing among stakeholders (Thomas & Gupta, 2021).
Futures Literacy Labs for Adapting to Climate Change – Lessons Learned
It emphasizes the importance of a participatory and inclusive approach for ensuring equity and effectiveness in adaptation strategies. The use of futures literacy is identified as a valuable tool for identifying potential risks and opportunities for adaptation. The need to address systemic issues such as poverty and unsustainable development practices is also highlighted. Collaboration and partnerships across different sectors and stakeholders are seen as necessary for addressing the complex and multifaceted issues of climate change. Finally, the importance of long-term thinking and planning is emphasized for effective adaptation measures to address the ongoing issue of climate change.
Conclusion
Foresight studies in developing countries face challenges such as short-term thinking, a focus on quantitative research, weak networking and coordination of stakeholders, and technological obstacles (Wang & Raj, 2017; Tan & Taeihagh, 2020). To overcome these challenges, a platform for exploring future paradigms should be provided, and futures literacy labs can be an effective means of addressing climate change challenges. Pakistan has developed policies and plans to address the impacts of climate change (Pakistan: National Climate Change Policy, n.d.).
Futures Literacy Labs are a valuable tool for developing future literacy skills to adapt to climate change by fostering creative thinking about potential futures. The “III Approach” helps future learners use their full range of cognitive abilities to envision and create sustainable future narratives and strategic plans. This approach empowers individuals to identify potential risks and opportunities for adaptation and supports long-term planning and thinking.
The use of futures literacy labs helps communities to think more deeply about the future, identify potential risks and opportunities, and develop sustainable solutions. By equipping individuals and organizations with the knowledge and skills to anticipate and respond to climate risks successfully, futures literacy labs encourage participants to make informed decisions that contribute towards a brighter and more sustainable future (Wang & Raj, 2017; Tan & Taeihagh, 2020).
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