The Future of Energy—Reinvented: Case Study of the Radical Scenario Development Approach

By Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, and Alexandra Whittington

Introduction and Background

How are businesses, organizations, and communities preparing for a range of possible energy futures? What can be done to push the boundaries and reinvent the range of possibilities? This article describes the outcomes from the application of a new scenario methodology (Radical Scenario Development) to the topic of energy.  Radical Scenario Development was designed for and facilitated by Fast Future at a workshop held at the Finland Futures Research Conference in Tampere, Finland in June 2018.  The Radical Scenario Development method highlights social learning and creativity while the scenarios emphasize how global societies might be powered in the decades to come.

Material and Methods

The Radical Scenario Development process combines elements of established scenario and group discussion techniques.  Radical Scenario Development uses the method known as backcasting alongside a group conversation style known as the World Café.  Backcasting means that the future conditions are predetermined at the beginning of the activity while the World Café lends a conversation style that takes place in small groups.  The Radical Scenario Development approach builds on interpersonal dynamics, individual reflection and organized discussions.  The process concludes with shared observations among the larger workshop participant groups.

The process takes place in two rounds.  Between rounds, the participants interact; they walk around the room and observe the scenarios created by groups at other tables.  The participants were asked to comment on at least three other groups’ scenarios between rounds.  Group facilitators were in attendance to assist groups with the discussions and provide supplies for the participants’ use.

To begin Round 1 of the conversation, participants were placed into small groups at tables for two consecutive rounds of discussion interspersed with the review round.  For the backcasting process, the groups selected from a preselected list of radical futures of energy. Scenario prompts were provided to immerse the participants in discussions that centered around key milestones towards one radical future at a specific future date.  Each group was given a handout containing the necessary information.  Examples of radical futures included:

• Paint-on organic solar cells by 2020
• Neighborhood or company becomes its own power plant by 2030
• Hack the planet: geoengineering by 2025
• Internet of energy by 2050
• Earth mostly powered on renewables by 2050
• Invisible power: Electromagnetics course through building walls, no cords or outlets needed by 2040
• Graphene provides a limitless supply of clean energy by 2040

Round 1:  Radical future selection, scenario outline, and draft

A framing guide for scenarios helped participants organize the components of the radical future scenario narrative and timeline.  A handout provided some prompts that helped frame the scenario during Round 1:

• How could daily life be different in this future? Imagine the impact on many different locations like office, school, and home.
• Who are the key actors and stakeholders in this scenario?
• How are the energy generation and distribution systems regulated? Who owns or controls the dominant technology?
• How have the international, national, regional, and local energy generation and distribution markets evolved?
• How are energy infrastructures financed? How is the consumption of energy paid for?
• How have existing and new consumer products and lifestyles evolved in this future? What are the prevalent attitudes toward energy consumption?
• What are the implications for climate control and the natural world during the time horizon?

Round 2:  Scenario refinement and depth, final timeline

For Round 2, participants regrouped at their tables to consider the feedback of other participants during the Café Review period.  Groups made revisions during Round 2 and discussed what they observed or learned during the review.  A handout listed some perspectives to be considered in framing the scenario during Round 2:

People:

• Who are the people/characters in the scenario?
• What are their core values and motivations?
• What tensions do they deal with day-to-day?

Place:

• Where does the story take place?
• Describe what you see when you envision this future.
• What past events define this future world?
• Which key events take place in the story?

Plot:

• What is the core message of your story?
• Are there any plot twists, or unexpected revelations in the story?
• How does this future look different from the present?

The outcome from the two rounds of table conversation was a Backcasting timeline of events and a written scenario leading to the realization of a radical future of energy reinvented.  By the end of the workshop, the participants experienced a creative process that generated new ideas about the future.

Radical Scenario Development Instructions:

1. Have a conversation about a radical future using pre-prepared scenario prompts.
2. Create a timeline that lists 3-5 events that occur on the way to that particular radical future.
3. Write a short story about a path to the radical future.

Results

How radical are the energy conversations where you live? Most views of the “almost probable certain future” show this situation being addressed slowly over the next five decades—way too late for many who will perish for lack of reliable energy supply. But what if we could embrace a fundamental shift in thinking, reset our priorities and investment plans, and set ourselves on a very different path to the future?  In this summary of the Energizing Futures workshop, we draw on the collective perspectives that emerged at the workshop, combined with new outlooks, visions, and fantasy thinking to explore four scenarios for the reinvented future of energy.

 Scenario 1: A Sunlit Solution

This future takes place between 2020 and 2050.  This future rests on the progression of the idea of organic solar cells and advances in solar panel performance.  There would be a focus on peer to peer energy distribution systems.  Cutting out the grid could lead to a healthier, renewable, and optimized quality of life.  It gives regular people something of value that they can trade or sell to meet their basic needs.

It starts in 2020 with politicians trying to maintain the status quo and resisting the changes being enabled by solar energy. By 2030, the powers that be realize there are more energy producers than consumers.  Not only that, but there is enough clean energy to last a lifetime.  Sustainability becomes the norm across the planet.

By 2040, in this scenario, the claim to ownership of energy could change completely.  Each person might be producing their own energy, sharing it with others, and viewing it as something completely renewing and abundant. By 2050 there would be drastic changes in lifestyles. An example life might look like this: An Indonesian family with one child; the parents work from home as part of a global network doing professional jobs in a small business. They get to do what they love because abundant energy sources mean they don’t have to struggle for basic survival.

One challenge of this future is that almost all-natural surfaces are covered in solar panels.  This seems at odds with the fact that all local natural and human resources gain more and more value.  Natural beauty becomes a rare sight in some places that were once revered for it, such as Indonesia.

 Scenario 2: I’ve Got the Power in Me

This scenario explores a world in 2040 where social values have evolved significantly.  The people of this future prioritize open access, trust, and love. Unlike other utopias, we arrive at this wonderful future without a catastrophe.  The triggering event is a truly game-changing new energy technology.  A personal wearable device is invented to provide personal freedom powered by unlimited energy – capturing and transforming the different forms of energy produced by the body such as motion and heat.

The reader is asked to imagine a decentralized future where the body can actually produce all the energy needed to run society?  There would likely be so much energy available that we wouldn’t know what to do with the excess.  We could perhaps transform it into technologies that provide shelter, heat, and transport.

On the downside, it is also possible that future uses of abundant energy would be applied to negative purposes.  Weapons, pollution, illness, and social control could be some of the darker ramifications of a future where the human body is an energy source itself.

As an example of living this future, consider Frida who lives in a city in China that stores the energy of the citizens. Not every city has this technology yet, so the city is a prosperous one.  The economy is based on energy: producing and selling it. The starting point for the technology was that it was used first to eliminate air pollution. This was a very popular advancement. The next stage was to develop the technology that enabled the city to store personal energy. In this future, Frida has the freedom to choose what to do with her time because in her daily life she is producing wealth with her own personal energy. She can choose any path she likes or just enjoy the wealth.

 Scenario 3: Post-Apocalyptic Networked Nomads

This scenario describes the emergence of a nomad network after an ecological crisis on earth.  It takes place sometime before 2050.

A major climate change induced ecological and civilization crisis has struck the earth. The rising sea levels destroyed entire cities. The populations that survived live in extreme weather conditions. Society has become nomadic and post-urban.

There is radically less energy consumed per person in this future. Society becomes a series of tribes connected by mobile devices. People have learned the lessons of the disaster, so they are collaborating through their devices and becoming a global mobile community. Energy regulation is based on the values of the nomadic tribes.

Like ancient Mongolians, people have robotic horses to move from one place to another, living in tents enabled with solar panels. Cities are not liveable, so old buildings and skyscrapers become the platforms for solar panels and storage units.

Because of the climate-induced super storms, these tribes cannot practice traditional agriculture. Instead, they have turned to marine agriculture, producing different types of algae that are grown with the use of robots. These farms are not enough to support a lifetime’s food supply, so the nomads move from one place to another on their robotic horses and wait for new algae to grow in order to come back to harvest their crops.

 Scenario 4: An Ikea World

This scenario explores a vision of a smart Scandinavian megacity design colonizing the earth between 2020 and 2050.  Communities have an extremely efficient physical infrastructure in terms of housing and residence. However, there are many overlapping activities taking place in the virtual world, which is where the real “community” exists. Mobility has slowed since the self-sufficiency of most buildings reduces the need for transport. Education and work are virtual, urban gardens produce ample food, and waste forms a key energy source.  The megacity design encapsulates the self-sufficient zeitgeist of the times.

This future started due to migration problems but thrived thanks to technological innovations.  Renewable energy infrastructure, the internet of things (IOT), and artificial intelligence gave birth to the optimization of truly intelligent cities and a new network of smart, self-sustaining communities.

Consider the life of the Perez family, who joined a Scandinavian-inspired energy cooperative residential community in Mexico.   They are required to adopt a collective mindset, so they commit to becoming more efficient in their energy consumption as tenants of the co-operative.  They have everything they need within their comfortable building:  ample food from vertical gardens, good neighbors, community entertainment, and a supportive social safety net.  Although they live in a tiny apartment, there is plenty of space for kids to explore in the virtual world.

Discussion and Conclusions

The stories emerging from Radical Scenario Development push the boundaries of what our energy future might look like.  Radical Scenario Development allows for new ideas, environmental disruption, and game-changing innovations to rise to the surface in conversations that promote social learning. The workshop was notable for its capacity to use conversation as a tool to explore how reinventing the future of energy might unleash new balances of power.

Further uses of the output from this workshop might address specific challenges in adapting to each scenario, and the most pressing implications for business and education in these different futures.  The use of the scenarios for these purposes is the intention of this process.  Localities, cities, neighborhoods, and communities can similarly work around the question: “What might be the critical steps to enable our preferred scenario?”  The future of energy is one topic of many worthy of radical experimentation.

The authors wish to thank the workshop participants for their input.

 The authors are futurists with Fast Future – a professional foresight firm specializing in delivering keynote speeches, executive education, research, and consulting on the emerging future and the impacts of change for global clients. See: www.fastfuture.com

Rohit Talwar is a global futurist, award-winning keynote speaker, author, and the CEO of Fast Future. Steve Wells is an experienced strategist, keynote speaker, futures analyst, partnership working practitioner, and the COO of Fast Future. Alexandra Whittington is a futurist, writer, foresight director of Fast Future, and a faculty member on the Futures program at the University of Houston.