by Andrew Curry & Anthony Hodgson
This paper describes a futures method called the “Three Horizons” which enables different futures and strategic methods to be integrated as and when appropriate. The method is still in development. It differs significantly from the original version described in the management literature a decade ago. The approach has several strengths. It can relate drivers and trends-based futures analysis to emerging issues. It enables policy or strategy implications of futures to be identified. And it links futures work to processes of change. The paper connects this latter aspect to models of change developed within the ‘social shaping’ school of technology. Finally, it summarises a number of futures applications where this evolving technique has been used.