by Khadija El Alaoui, Sohail Inayatullah and Muamar Salameh
Illustration: Manar Husainemail – manarhusain17@gmail.com
No part of the world has been left untouched by the path of COVID-19. Nations and regions have responded differently. East Asia was quick to implement lockdowns, social distancing, hand washing and other recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). Tracing, the use of AI and apps have all been helpful. Australia and New Zealand have successfully suppressed the virus. They are keeping borders closed at this stage, though they are likely to adopt a traffic light model of opening (green, orange, and red zones of travel).
However, in many parts of the Asian and African continents, WHO preventive measures might be difficult to carry out. Consider the case of Egypt. Egypt’s statistical agency, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), reported that 32.5 percent of the total population falls below the poverty line (estimated at approximately $46.6, monthly) in 2017-18. The Middle East Eye of April 16, 2020 quoted Samira Outt, a street vendor, as saying “If I catch the virus, I will die. And if I don’t work me and my children will die also, but out of hunger. So it is the same.”
In an earlier work that explored the futures of a COVID-19 world, four scenarios were identified (Inayatullah and Black, 2020). These were: In the first scenario, “Zombie Apocalypse,” fear and panic rule as markets crash and nations fracture. The second, “The Needed Pause,” anticipates that a year or so of lockdowns leads to speeding up in late 2021, once a vaccine and a cure make the world safe again. Humanity is then back to business-as-usual. In the third scenario called “Global Health Awakening,” the crisis leads to the 5p health model: precision, prevention, personalization, partnership and participation. The gains from working and staying at home –cleaner skies and cities, flexible work, slowing down, and the healing benefits of pausing– are not forgotten. Global cooperation, science and artificial intelligence lead to dramatic innovation. The world is transformed. In the fourth scenario, “A Great Despair” ensues. Walls appear, globalization disappears, and the virus mutates. Even though a vaccine is found, the vulnerable do not recover. A decade is lost in meeting the UN Sustainable development goals.
But what of the Islamic world?
As the Muslim community encompasses a vast region stretching from Jakarta (Indonesia) to Tanja (Morocco), and includes diverse languages, cultures, religions and political systems, anticipating its futures demands a context-sensitive approach. From an Islamic point of view, WHO preventive measures and guidance do not contradict Islamic teaching regarding pandemics. Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) advised: “If you hear of an outbreak of plague in a land, do not enter it; if the plague outbreaks out in a place while you are in it, do not leave that place.[1]”
The following are four possible futures: (1) The changing of the guard; (2) the revolution of the youth; (3) Hold the line; and (4) The new planetary Ummah.
The Changing Of The Guard
The pandemic creates a seismic change in the geopolitics of the region: Iran sinks – its leadership claims disappear. Saudi Arabia loses its status as the protector of the Holy Sites and the pilgrims due to border closure. Its Legitimacy is further weakened by the steep drop in oil prices. There is a power vacuum. It is far from clear who leads the Islamic world. As the western world reels from the seven-year depression and oil-exporting nations succumb to waves of poverty, nations, which are not saddled with the resource curse, rise. Will it be Turkey? Indonesia? Or Malaysia? The core metaphor for this future is: “Behind every dying Caesar, there is a new one.” To articulate this scenario, we present a day in the life of Udday, an Iraqi soldier.
Illustration: Manar Husain – manarhusain17@gmail.com
Udday, an Iraqi soldier, is stationed at a border outpost in Diyala Province along the Iranian border. He returns home after months of work in harsh circumstances. He sits down with Zainab, his daughter in the seventh grade, to help with her homework. She is in the process of putting together a digital poster with a title “Turkey: Our reliable ally.”
Zainab explains: “I need three points that demonstrate Turkey’s support of Iraq and the Ummah. See, I have already collected some information about how Turkey liberated Iraq from Iran’s control. I have also prepared excerpts from Turkey’s plan to rebuild our economy.”
Proudly showing her work to her father, Zainab adds: “If you can help me with the last point, then my task will be completed. The teacher says we have to use an example that illustrates Turkey’s role in leading the Ummah.”
Udday eyes his wife, Zahra, and sighs “Subhana Allah! The very spot where I am stationed used to be a transit point for Iran’s military leaders. Militias, military supplies and trade goods moved freely through our border. We were the corridor all the way to Syria and Lebanon. Now military supplies and most goods come from Turkey.”
Zahra responds: “pandemics have the potential to change history. One would wish to see the end of this state of clientelism, but we are still far from it.”
In the evening, the family picks the newly released film of Sultan Muhammed Al-Fatih, already dubbed in several languages including Arabic. Their Ottoman table is filled with Turkish tea and Baklava.
The Revolution Of The Youth
The pandemic – in addition to crises caused by climate change in the decade ahead – results in great decimation, especially in territories already suffering the politics of unelected leaders. No vaccine or cure is found and the virus mutates. Poverty and ill-equipped health services with a lack of preventive action eventually lead to millions of deaths in the Islamic world. Acceptance instead of a transformative strategy becomes the norm. As one Pakistani guard commented: “What can we do about the Coronavirus? One can die of a heart attack. Death is inevitable and it could come at any time.[2] COVID-19 is but the will of Allah.”
The youth points out: “While the emergence of the virus was not in human control, the management of the pandemic certainly is. …Prophet Muhammad advised a man who did not tie his camel because he trusted in God: “tie the camel first and then trust in God”.[3]
Even as many veer toward surrender, we can anticipate the youth revolt. As the old die, the power of youth becomes defining. They lead. Tying their camel through both the use of new technologies and development of solidarity with other oppressed groups, they lead the way. The Arab Spring returns with a vengeance. Their uprising is also a health care revolt, as the epidemic exposed the fragility of the health sector and the callousness of many governments towards the basic needs of their populations. As well, the lack of trust in governmental and international organization led to the spread of conspiracy theories – that COVID-19 was a hoax – which again led to system failure (Shakra, 2020).
Zooming in on Egypt, the poetry that was recited in victorious tones in Tahrir Square in 2011, as if the Kali Yuga was over, is back in circulation in hushed tones. People now listen to it or recite it knowing that their grievances have deepened and widened. Hisham Al-Jakh’s Joha is one such poem that decries life in Husni Mubarak’s era. Composed in April 2010, Joha goes over many indignities forced upon the people, the watan (nation-state) and the Ummah:
It is a ridiculous feeling
When you feel that your watan is something weak
Your voice is weak
Your opinion is weak
When you sell your heart and body
When you sell your pen and name
And they do not cover the cost of bread
…
And it is a ridiculous feeling
To be a symbol of beggary
…
I am the owner of the house
Alive… but useless
…
Our dignity is insulted
And the bite comes with humiliation
What does this mean… when rice husk, a treasure being burned
And when the Ummah’s oil, a treasure being looted
… when your executioner crushes his own children
What does it mean to be jailed for four years as a preventive measure?
What does it mean to raise our hands welcoming invaders?
…
Tell me, why don’t you feel our being and its preciousness?
I was going to gift you its sweetness (Al-Jakh, 2017: 63-67).
Instead of the sweetness of life in freedom, dignity and social justice promised by the so-called Arab Spring, bitterness is what people have reaped. Those who compose poetry of the streets keep reminding people of other futures they claim to read from peoples’ faces. Tamim Al-Barghouti’s “A-Dawla” (The Nation-State, 2016) weaves a parable of power, politics, fear, solidarity and resistance: a hyena attacks at will a flock of gazelles that runs away each time it senses danger, until a fawn unthinkingly decides to fight back. The poet invites his listeners to imagine what would happen if instead of running away out of fear, the flock runs into their attacker. His line “If only the flock changed its direction/All would survive” can constitute the litany of this future. In this future, the young people, infuriated by the obscenities of power, take to the streets, the virtual and the real ones, to demand once again freedom, dignity and justice. People yearn for their voices to be heard and their right to self-determination. They are aware of the brutality of the government’s response; yet, they know that communities suffering injustices are all over the globe and work to create a vast network of solidarity that strengthens their fight against oppression.
Illustration: Manar Husain – manarhusain17@gmail.com
The core narrative in this future is: In tune with the streets, we will sing and heal. To articulate this scenario, we have a glimpse into the life of Fahima, a nurse and a poet.
Fahima, a twenty-four-year-old nurse, who is employed in a hospital in Boulaq Ad-Dakrour in Giza, returns home after a hard day at work. The working conditions have been beyond bearable for a long time. She checks her YouTube account and sees that her poem in which she compares Egypt to a large collapsing hospital has gone viral. Mahmoud aka MaD, a 19-year- old rapper gets in touch with her asking for her permission to turn the poem into a song. He tells her of his intention to invite other artists, from Mali, the US and other places, to collaborate with him on a project of the large hospital the world has become thanks to the power-addicts. Fahima does not like rap music. She would have rather avoided anything connected with music, especially Western one; yet, she accepts Mahmoud’s offer and welcomes the opportunity of working with him. Fahima understands that she needs to reach out to and even learn from other fellow-workers for the same cause. Fahima reads dozens messages notifying her of work to be done in preparation of upcoming protests. She feels exhausted; yet knows that the battle is about to begin. She wonders about her ability to keep it up, but then reiterates the proverb “Forced by circumstances, rather than led by courage.” In their sit-in planned for next week, she will wear a mask on which she has stitched “I demand sanity.”
The demographic challenges as well as the relationship between the youth and civil conflict render this scenario possible, as the following tables illustrate (Financial Times, 2020).
The following table explores the relationship between age structure and intra-state conflict (Cincotta, 2018).
Hold The Line
Powerful nations in the Islamic world safeguard as much as they can of their power and influence, given the instability in the world economic system. They do their best to continue the status quo. Fearing the revolution of the youth, they offer economic aid to poverty-stricken Muslim nations led by governments perceived as allies. In an attempt to preserve the status quo, the pandemic is used to suppress any form of dissent. Preventive measures are implemented in the name of public health; yet they serve the purpose of deepening control over the population. The metaphor is: still chained to the past.
We describe a day in the life of Jawad, a journalist and a dissenter.
Illustration: Manar Husain – manarhusain17@gmail.com
Jawed, a freelance journalist in The Ummah newspaper, glimpses at the message he receives from the ministry of health. Again it notes prayers at mosques are not allowed until further notice. Jawed understands that so much of daily life has changed with the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, realizing that the world has to learn to live with it, governments all over the world have introduced ethical and legal norms to regulate life during the pandemic. Some of these norms have lingered despite the end of the crisis. Moreover, many decisions seem to be out of sync with his government’s declared intention of protecting citizens. Jawed wonders “Why do mosques continuously swing between opening and closure?”
Jawed composes the number of his best friend and tells him that he has been laid off again. His boss claims that the reason is loss in advertisement revenues and the necessity to reduce the number of staff. Yet, he suspects that his recent articles that question decisions taken by his government cost him his job. Jawed tells his friend to keep him in mind if he hears of any hiring. Before hanging up, he tells his friend: “remember I am a freelance worker in unfree territory, so I can carry bricks too.”
The New Planetary Ummah: Science And Spirit
Research in the late 1990s reveals a shift in the Islamic world: the Ummah with capital U has shown signs of moving toward syncretic Islam. This shift was noticed by Bin Laden and others, who worked hard to end it through bringing believers back to the Wahabi fold. They failed. Fed up with geopolitics, ruthless leaders, and false clerics, Muslims dive deep into spirit. Rumi and his teachings become more important than ever. The Islamic renaissance of science and spirit leads the way in a post-pandemic and post-depression world.
This is the most idealistic scenario. The metaphor is: Call me by my true names
Below is a description of a day in the life of biochemist Malika.
Illustration: Manar Husain – manarhusain17@gmail.com
Malika Nas, a thirty-two -year old researcher in biochemistry and professor of creative methodologies in Ibn-Arabi pluriversity in Fes, is getting ready to pay a visit to her mother, Asma. Malika looks forward to the conversation with her mother, the gathering at the rooftop, the ritual tea after ‘Asr prayers and the Qarawiyyin view.
At home, Asma is excited about her daughter’s visit. While washing spearmint and sage leaves, she thinks back to the time when she felt misunderstood. Her parents used to feel suspicious of digital technology, while she grew up considering it an integral part of life. Asma remembers her vow to do her best to bridge the gap between her and her children when generational differences make communication difficult. Yet, what Malika and her generation have come up with is something that goes against human nature and probably even against Islamic creed. Malika, for instance, speaks of all species making up the larger biosphere as umam (communities; plural of ummah) whose general well-being should be promoted. When Asma pointed out that the term community for non-human species was misplaced, her daughter quoted Chapter 6, Verse 38 from the Qur’an. Asma realizes that she ignores many important aspects of her religion, yet, she still worries about her daughter’s worldview that smells of an identity crisis. Asma decides to tackle again this topic over tea, smiling over the irony of having been accused of the same transgression by her parents. Ah, water has been simmering for a while.
After catching up on the latest news with her daughter, Asma spoke her mind: “You know, Malika, before you were born, the Internet revolution enabled the human race to be connected. We were exchanging information and learning from each other but we were also fighting and sometimes even hating each other! The fighting was inevitable because we insisted on being who we are. We had to resist being kneaded into something wholly alien to where we come from. Such is, anyway, human nature: people crave power and impose their norms on those deemed powerless. I feel that your generation’s talks about the planetary Ummah is a major abdication of who you are.”
Malika nods and says “Your generation started the important work of putting in place the infrastructure for planetary connection. Yet, your understanding of identity and power as well as privileging the human species led to impoverished politics and impoverished economics and ethics! All what my generation is doing is to extend our identity, reimagine power and engage deep communication with the common biosphere. The results have changed our consciousness. Probably the pandemic outbreak during your time opened our eyes and hearts to the moral debt we owe to each other and to all the creatures with whom we share our planet. Already at the turn of the millennium, neuroscience questioned the understanding of human nature as driven by self-interest and selfishness. Today, we know that terms, such as “interbeing,” coined by the Vietnamese poet Thich Nhat Hanh, I think in the 1960s, is not just a flight of fancy but a scientific fact. It is funny, during his time people found Thich Nhat Hanh’s ideas esoteric, today when I read “Call me by my true names,” where the poet is the bud on a spring branch, the tiny bird, the vulnerable and the powerful, that’s me.
Asma sighed: “Were we that wrong?”
Malika: “And if so, then the wound is the place where the light enters you, as Maulana Rumi says. So you gave us the infrastructure, knowledge and the wound that allowed light in. We can’t thank you enough.”
Next Steps
To create this transformative future, the following steps are necessary:
- A shift in perception: The past does not define us, as both the past and the future are equally important. As William Wordsworth poetically put it: “Past and Future are the wings/On whose support, harmoniously conjoined/Moves the great spirit of human knowledge.”
- Educational institutions teaching futures literacy
- Confidence in the Islamic world translates into liberation from resorting to the past for defensive purposes and the conviction to use the future to create. Instead of sighing over perceived golden periods or crumbling under the weight of the colonial and neo-colonial wounds, the past can serve as a springboard to imagine future possibilities.
- Massive investment in science and technology
- Leaders who put the Ummah first, and the nation second. Incentives to do this are created. These could be in the form of awards bestowed on leaders who serve their Ummah.
Which scenario will gain traction? This is too difficult to say at this point. Certainly, if life goes back to Business-as-usual, “hold the line is most likely.” If we undergo a long recession or depression, then the “Revenge of the youth” is most likely.
However, as the writer Arundhati Roy argues, COVID-19 does not have to be a war, it can be a portal into a better world. Can the Ummah enter through this portal and transform itself and the world into a place where pandemics provide a historical opportunity for soul rejuvenation and planetary justice? If the Ummah does, then a new dawn of science and spirit rising is possible.
Illustration: Manar Husain – manarhusain17@gmail.com
Notes
- https://theconversation.com/how-coronavirus-challenges-muslims-faith-and-changes-their-lives-133925. Accessed 4 May 2020. ↑
- https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-is-pakistan-taking-covid-19-too-lightly/a-52824403.Accessed 4 April 2020. ↑
- https://theconversation.com/how-coronavirus-challenges-muslims-faith-and-changes-their-lives-133925 ↑
References
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4Uy6FsAxno. Accessed 19 May 2020.
Al-Jakh, H. (2017). Joha. First Collection. Dar Ajyal.
Cincotta, R. (2018). Age-structure and Intra-state Conflict: More or less than we imagined. New Security Beat. 19 April. Retreived June 8, 2020, from https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/04/age-structure-intra-state-conflict-imagined/.
Financial Times. (2020). Middle East’s Demographic Earthquake: the generation fuelling protests. Retrieved June 8, 2020, from https://www.ft.com/content/03274532-21ce-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b
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Middle East Eye (2020). Staying home is for the rich: Social distancing is a luxury Egypt’s poor can’t afford. (16 April). Retrieved May 15, 2020, from https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-egypt-social-distancing-poor-cannot-afford
Roy, A. (2020). The Pandemic is a portal. Financial Times (4 April). Retrieved May 21, 2020, from
https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8-74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca
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About the authors
Khadija El Alaoui, College of Science and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, khalaoui@gmail.com
Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Tamkang University. Inaugural UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies. Associate, Melbourne Business School. Researcher, Metafuture.org, https://www.metafutureschool.org/
Muamar Salameh, College of Law, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, msalameh@pmu.edu.sa
