by Christian Gruenwald
Relief in large parts of the world’s politics was great when the news of Joe Biden’s election victory spread. After days of restraint, many heads of government could not go fast enough with the congratulations after the television stations announced Biden’s victory. The presidency of Donald Trump seems to be history for now. But Trumpism is still there. In this context, Trumpism is not so much an ideology as a style of understanding and conducting politics. It includes scorn for rule-based multilateralism and political correctness. The systematic shifting of limits of what can be said and limitations of what politicians are granted as adequate modes of action. Constant attacks on the free press. The bypassing of the media’s gatekeeper function and political discourse via Twitter. The deliberate inability to publicly condemn right-wing aggressions. No distinction between democratically elected and authoritarian governments in the selection of foreign policy partners. Deliberate lying as a tool of political discourse. Disdain for cross-party cooperation. The understanding of politics as a zero-sum game. Rejection of real compromises. All this has left deep traces in the political culture of the US and still has a strong appeal despite the election defeat. More than 70 million voters in the US preferred Trump to a democratic president Biden on election day. Election day showed that America is a deeply divided country.
The question of the inner state of the US, however, affects not only the United States but the whole world since this question is closely linked to geopolitics. The United States is at a turning point. Many factors appear highly uncertain. Much will depend on whether Joe Biden succeeds in effectively implementing his reconciliation agenda and reducing the record-high levels of polarization (Heltzel/Laurin, 2020). If reconciliation is to succeed, Biden must necessarily approach Republicans and be willing to compromise. The same applies to the Republican party. In the present state, true cross-party cooperation seems to be almost impossible in the future. Furthermore, the rifts might be even deeper than expected, since the social and political split began long before the Trump presidency. It seems also uncertain whether Biden will succeed in regaining lost trust in US politics, both at home and worldwide. After four years of public discourse dominated by insults, false allegations and insinuations, the question arises whether the political culture in America will change towards a more civilized approach.
In addition to many domestic policy issues, a reorientation of US foreign policy is necessary. In view of the many domestic conflicts, can the United States succeed in regaining a credible and value-led global role? Or will a majority of Americans even favor a new phase of isolation? All these decisive questions are closely linked to the future role that Trumpism will play in American politics.
Therefore, the question is what shape and role Trumpism will take in the United States in the future. In particular, two variables appear to be crucial for the future of Trumpism. The first variable stems from the core question: How strong will the public attraction of Trumpism remain after Trump left the White House? This depends on many factors, which are condensed in the variable and interact with each other. Much hinges on the extent to which Trump continues to succeed in setting agendas with a broad impact outside of the political institutions, attracting media attention and mobilizing his followers. Is it paying off for Donald Trump to continue to hold rallies in order to make his followers stick with him? This is closely linked to the question of the extent to which Trump’s narrative of a “stolen election” will be enduring or whether at some point it will no longer be relevant. Will he succeed in the long term in presenting himself as a victim of the deep state and thus also in embedding possible charges against him by the judiciary in this narrative? It seems obvious that such a narrative can only continue to entangle his followers if polarization remains high in the country.
Another crucial point for the near future will be how the Biden Administration manages the further spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This concerns not only the containment of the virus, but also the organization and provision of vaccinations. Closely linked to this is the question of whether a rapid recovery of the economy and the labor market will be successful. If not, another narrative could dominate public discourse, namely the storyline that without the pandemic the economy and labor market would have further boomed. This would probably open the door to even more conspiracy theories regarding the so-called “China Virus”. Trump’s behavior in recent years leads one to assume that he will do everything possible to ensure that his version of the story is believed by his followers and, in this context, he is willing to accept a further divide in the country in return.
The second variable arises from the question to what extent the Republican Party can emancipate itself from Donald Trump after his departure from the White House and whether it actually wants to do so. The answer to this question is highly relevant for the further development of public discourse and political culture in the USA. Narratives of large-scale electoral fraud launched by Trump in the aftermath of the election exacerbate existing polarizations and make constructive cross-party cooperation impossible. Consequently, right now, Republican leaders are currently sending no signals of willingness to cooperate in the direction of Joe Biden. On the other hand, however, there are increasingly Republicans who are distancing themselves from Donald Trump (Graham, 2020). However, in recent years the Republican Party has repeatedly shown itself to be very open to radical ideas. This was evident not only in the last internal party primaries, but also in the extent to which the Tea Party movement was able to leave its mark on the party. Unforgiveness and dogmatism became a hallmark of politics for large sections of the rank and file. This has led to even more radical positions such as the conspiracy theories of QAnon becoming acceptable (Rosenberg, 2020). The breadth of opinion within the party has increased to the same extent as the binding forces have decreased. Ever more traditionally-minded republicans are alienating from their party. The question of emancipation from Trump, only in case if the party wants to break away from Trump at all, would also be a struggle for discourse control. Politics is made in the institutions; Trump’s only remaining role would be that of extra-parliamentary opposition. In view of this complex situation, various dynamic and self-reinforcing developments are conceivable.
By crossing the axes with the extreme projections of the two variables “Public Attractiveness of Trumpism” and “Will to emancipate from Trump of the Republican Party”, a 2×2 matrix can be formed (Rhydderch, 2017). The matrix allows the derivation of four plausible futures of Trumpism in the US.
Figure 1: 2×2 Matrix (Source: own illustration)
Scenario 1 “Grover Cleveland“
Even after leaving the White House, Donald Trump still succeeds in setting the Republican Party’s agenda. Trump’s narratives still appeal to large sections of the Republican voters. As a result, his popularity and interest of media in him is correspondingly great. With regular tweets and messages on social networks like Parler he determines the discourse of his party. Over the years, Trump holds regular mass events at the grassroots level to legitimize his dominant role in the party. He succeeds in exerting a decisive influence from outside on voting behavior in Congress, so that Republican Congressmen usually vote according to his specifications. This is especially true for symbolically and emotionally charged issues such as immigration or climate change, whose existence is denied by a majority of the Republican base. Those who dare to vote differently are threatened by shitstorms in the social media and threats from Trump himself at his public events. Intimates like Senator Lindsay Graham pull the strings for Trump in Congress.
Public discourse is characterized by confrontation and irreconcilability, and cross-party cooperation is impossible. This irreconcilability is also reflected in society; civilized debates and the exchange of arguments are almost impossible. Families break up in part because family members take different political positions. Journalists and scientists, who take trump-contrary positions, are exposed to intense accusations and threats. In this heated political climate, leftist groups are also radicalizing themselves. Nevertheless, conservative and right-wing media court Trump and support his positions. Potential inner-party opponents feel intimidated by Trump’s dominant role, while primary elections degenerate into a farce. As a result, Trump is again elected as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate. Like Grover Cleveland in 1892, he is running again for president. In this context, Trump is obsessed by the idea that future historians should by no means portray him as a loser. The 2023/2024 election campaign is so fierce that it represents a new rock bottom in American political culture.
Scenario 2 “Trumpist Movement”
Significant parts of the Republican Party are quickly turning away from Donald Trump after leaving the Oval Office. However, Trump still has strong support at the grassroots level. He knows how to use this continuous support for himself, both politically and commercially. This leads to a split in the Republican Party. Trump builds up his own media infrastructure and founds an independent right-wing populist “Trumpist Movement”. The “Trumpist Movement”, for which Trump is running as a presidential candidate in 2024, is becoming increasingly radicalized. Alt Right supporters live ever more in a parallel society. The regular gatherings at which the Trump Family appears serve to reassure oneself of one’s position within the Trumpist Filter Bubble. Conspiracy theories are flourishing. More and more often, clashes in US-American cities and acts of right-wing terrorism occur. In some states, secessionist tendencies are also fueled in sharp demarcation to politics in Washington, D.C.
Scientists, journalists, civil rights activists and left activists are attacked, the Trumpist movement always half-heartedly distances itself from these attacks. Rather, Trump tries to create a climate of fear, hoping that America will subsequently call on him as a “strong leader. Polarizations are increasing, and leftist movements are also becoming radicalized. Within the Democratic Party, left-wing members of parliament are taking up increasingly irreconcilable positions, both toward political opponents and moderate forces in the party. The possibility of a split-up of the Democratic party is also openly discussed here. Moderate positions have a hard time being acknowledged in public discourse. The Biden administration and moderate Republicans and Democrats have a difficult position, since politics is highly emotionalized and constructive, fact-oriented work is hardly appreciated. Trump tries to influence both Congress and the administration through fundamental opposition.
Scenario 3 “Legacy”
Trump manages to dominate the Republican Party’s agenda for some time, but the public and the media are increasingly becoming less interested in him. America is looking ahead, the story of electoral fraud is losing its mass appeal. Eventually, he withdraws bitterly and devotes himself to his business and the improvement of his golf skills. But the Republican Party is incapable of genuine renewal. Therefore, many elements of trumpist politics remain in the collective memory of the Republican Party. Several Congressmen and Congresswomen repeatedly refer directly to the Trump era, without being able to score points with a broad majority of voters in the near future.
However, Trumpism is firmly entrenched. Insulting journalists, economic growth as the only relevant yardstick for good politics, belittling political opponents and a lack of willingness to cooperate are the new, old normality in the Republican Party. To a large extent, the Republican Party is doing nothing to help the country achieve reconciliation. Not everyone agrees. Disappointed party members frankly play with the idea of founding a new party. Gradually, Donald Trump’s children are putting themselves in place for a later political career, with Ivanka Trump leading the way. Trumpism is becoming sort of a right-wing US variety of Argentinean Peronism, a multifaceted populist movement capable of integrating a variety of political goals and beliefs that have in common only the reference to “the people” and to Trump. In this context, Trumpism can experience its rebirth at any time. Trump’s children are waiting for the right moment to run for president, with the media and political insiders reporting gleefully on disputes between the children. It is not quite clear who of his children Donald Trump Sr. considers to be the right candidate.
Scenario 4 “Catharsis“
After Donald Trump’s departure from the White House, the house of cards breaks down. Those Republican Congressmen and Congresswomen who are facing congressional elections in 2022 feel that they need to distance themselves from Trump as soon as possible. As a result, new formats of cooperation between Republicans and Democrats are emerging. Former employees write books of revelations, and virtually every day new shocking details about Trump’s time in the Oval Office come to light. Trump is indicted by the judiciary for several offenses at once and is henceforth considered persona non grata in American politics. Media that used to support him now quickly drop him. More and more politicians are becoming aware that continuing in this vein will not lead to good results for the country. Trumpism is henceforth regarded as a future warning sign for American politics. Media treatment of the Trump presidency is linked to calls for far-reaching reforms.
As a result, constitutional reforms are introduced to prevent abuse of power of coming presidents. Gerrymandering, the arbitrary cutting of electoral districts, is severely restricted. Voter registration is also being simplified, making it easier for socially weak groups to exercise their voting rights. The U.S. Postal Service will be provided with new resources to enable it to carry out postal voting effectively. Hate comments on the Internet will be deleted faster and can be more easily prosecuted. In this new climate of cooperation, the US Congress tries to act closer to the people and to restore lost confidence in its work. To strengthen confidence in the judiciary, the depoliticization of the Supreme Court is also being pursued across party lines.
Conclusion
Regardless of the final development, the United States seems to be at a turning point in history. The question of the future role of Trumpism will also determine the future of the United States and thus, to a certain extent, the future of other regions of the world, notably Europe. To avoid being surprised again, politicians all over the world should not give in to the feeling that Trumpism is already history. Therefore, it should be a premise of foresighted politics to increase their own capacity for surprise and to prepare for different futures. This is especially true for politicians in Western states who believe that a new era of stability will follow after Donald Trump’s departure from the White House.
In the question about the future of Trumpism, different bundles of problems of the USA are condensed. None of the four scenarios outlines a future without conflicts. Also the fourth scenario is likely to meet with fierce resistance from those who have benefited from the previous system. Conflicts are a necessary element of pluralistic societies; they even serve the advancement of societies (Fraenkel, 1964). The question is always whether it is possible to contain the conflicts in parliamentary and institutional frameworks and transfer them into complex negotiation processes with civil society. If conflicts are increasingly carried out outside the constitutional framework, political institutions are perceived as dysfunctional. In this context, it is not decisive how institutions and political culture are evaluated abroad, but only whether Americans perceive their institutional structure as functional or dysfunctional.
All four scenarios imply a certain logic for political activities. In the first scenario, it can be assumed that although the discourse will continue to sharpen, politics will remain within the framework known today with a two-party system and a polarized media landscape. In contrast, the second scenario marks a break with the previous system. Here the nucleus for the development of a multi-party system is created, which in the long term is likely to bring far-reaching changes for the political culture of the US. At the same time, emergence of radical movements also represents a gateway for authoritarian tendencies.
The third scenario, on the other hand, sketches a medium-term unpredictability of the Republican Party. The outcome of internal party primaries is likely to be even more unpredictable. All three scenarios also assume a continuing high degree of polarization. In contrast, the fourth scenario emphasizes the ability of US-Americans to quickly leave things behind and reinvent themselves. But, from today’s perspective, the fourth scenario appears to be sort of wishful thinking. In view of the heated atmosphere in the US, a continuation of polarization and social division is more likely to be expected.
From a foreign policy and economic perspective, the question of future Trumpism is also linked to pendulum movements in American politics. The election of Donald Trump represented a discontinuity. Before the election there were hardly any voices that seriously believed Trump could win the election. The confidence in continuity seemed too great. However, continuity in the future is crucial for the United States’ partners in order to build trust. Alliances are based on long-term expectations. However, Trump questioned existing alliances such as NATO and terminated international treaties such as the Paris Agreement. Continuity is also a major added value in trade and economic relations. The old Roman principle of “pacta sunt servanda” (contracts must be respected) applies both politically and economically. Should Trump be re-elected in 2024 or a successor take office who deliberately invokes Trumpism, the United States could be perceived as a highly unreliable partner. New alliances could develop as a result, especially in Europe and the Pacific region.
Often enough, analyses have emphasized that Trump is not the cause but a symptom of existing dysfunctionality. The desire for change and for new faces in the political arena was already evident with the election of Barack Obama. Democracies must ensure both political competition for ideas and the containment of existing conflicts in complex negotiation processes. However, this can only succeed in the United States if structural problems are eliminated. It can also be deduced from the scenarios that America needs new unifying narratives. The existing narratives seem to weaken social cohesion. Whether new unifying narratives can be developed also depends to a certain extent on the role Trumpism will play in the future.
Author
Dr. Christian Grünwald is Foresight Director at Z_punkt The Foresight Company, a foresight consultancy based in Cologne, Germany (www.z-punkt.de).
Contact: gruenwald@z-punkt.de
References
Fraenkel, E. (1964). Der Pluralismus als Strukturelement der freiheitlich-rechtsstaatlichen Demokratie. Munich/Berlin: Beck.
Graham, r. (2020). Republican senators socially distance from Trump. Boston Globe. Retreived December 8, 2020, from https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/10/20/opinion/republican-senators-socially-distance-trump/
Heltzel, G., & Laurin, K. (2020). Polarization in America: two possible futures.
Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, Volume 34, pp. 179-184.
Rhydderch, A. (2017). Scenario Building: The 2×2 Matrix Technique. Futuribles Prospective and Strategic Foresight Toolbox. Retrieved November 10, 2020, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331564544_Scenario_Building_The_2x2_Matrix_Technique/link/5c80fc83458515831f8b5508/download
Rosenberg, M. (2020). Republican Voters Take a Radical Conspiracy Theory Mainstream. The New York Times. Retrieved December 7, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/politics/qanon-trump-republicans.html
