Application of Causal Layered Analysis to Contemporary Romanian Societal Challenges

Diana Stafie  and Luana Galoiu 

Introduction

The complexity of modern societal challenges requires methodologies that can probe beyond surface-level analysis (Inayatullah, 1998). Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), developed by Sohail Inayatullah, offers a structured method to examine issues across multiple layers of understanding, from visible symptoms to deeper (cultural) narratives. CLA has been widely applied in both institutional foresight and participatory workshops (Ramos, 2006), which makes it particularly suitable for exploring collective narratives and systemic change.

While CLA has proven effective in analyzing organizational issues and corporate strategic planning, its application to broader societal challenges presents unique opportunities. Future Station, a foresight consultancy based in Romania, has observed the advantages of various foresight tools, including CLA, in corporate contexts.

This paper shares insights from a practice session that applied CLA methodology to broader Romanian societal issues. The session originated from Future Station’s foresight community, which includes nearly 1,500 members who periodically participate in practice sessions designed to familiarise them with various foresight tools and foster a future-ready mindset within the community.

Workshop Design

These conclusions are based on an online workshop format hosted by the team from Future Station led by Foresight professional Diana Stafie. The litanies analyzed were selected through a community poll, ensuring relevance and engagement from participants. Participants came from diverse professional backgrounds, including IT, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and human resources.

The structure of the workshop was as follows:

1. Introduction to CLA methodology and a showcase of an example of Romanian young people’s low engagement in politics
2. The division into three teams, each focusing on one litany
3. Guided analysis using an eight-step process
4. Group presentations and collective discussion.

After introducing the CLA methodology, a demonstration example was presented, which focused on the following litany: Young people’s low engagement in Romanian politics. This example walked participants through all eight steps of the CLA process, showing how to move from surface issues to deeper analysis and envision solutions. Therefore, the example illustrated how to analyze issues from the litany level (showing statistics of youth absenteeism) through to systemic causes (such as lack of trust and limited civic education), worldviews (the belief that “nothing ever changes”), and finally to transformative metaphors (from “Las’ că merge și așa” – acceptance of mediocrity – to “Control Alt Delete to old politics” – envisioning system reboot).

Considering this example, the teams worked on 3 other litanies – 3 other significant societal challenges in Romania, each supported by current data and trends.

• Brain Drain: Romania is losing its talented individuals to other countries
• Aging Population: The country is experiencing an increase in the elderly population, which places additional pressure on health and social systems.
• pAIdemic: There is widespread anxiety regarding artificial intelligence potentially taking over jobs and impacting daily lives.

During the workshop, the Future Station team applied the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) using a structured eight-step process, as illustrated in Figure 1. This process was divided into two primary phases: (i) mapping the present situation (present situation analysis – steps 1-4) and (ii) envisioning a desired future (preferred future creation, steps 5-8).

Figure 1. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Framework adapted by Future Station.

Step 1: Litany

We started with relevant litanies, the first layer of the analysis, as seen in Figure 1. We described the litany as the recurring headlines, common narratives that exist, and the “official” or unquestioned view of reality that is widely accepted and rarely challenged.

Note: the word litany is not one very used by non-native English speakers, thus we had to introduce concepts that are similar, such as “issues”, “challenges”, or “current facts”.

In our workshop, we have done a survey to choose the top litanies relevant for the group out of the 8 litanies listed for Romania. The following litanies were identified as the most pressing ones:

• Brain Drain: Romania is losing its talented individuals to other countries.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (Popa, 2023), 2023 marked the year when most Romanians left the country permanently. Current projections indicate that labour shortages are expected to double by 2026. The phenomenon is particularly visible among young professionals, with more Romanians going abroad to study and not returning (Cicovschi, 2024).

• Romania is getting older: The country is experiencing an increase in the elderly population, which places additional pressure on health and social systems.

The National Institute of Statistics warns of a “Demographic Shock in 2030” (Popa, 2024). Their data shows that the phenomenon of demographic ageing is worsening year by year in Romania. Romania could experience one of the steepest population declines in the long term.

• pAIdemic: There is widespread anxiety regarding artificial intelligence potentially taking over jobs and impacting daily lives.

Recent surveys indicate that 52% of people globally are anxious about products and services that use AI, with Romania showing similar levels at 50% (Stepan, 2024). This concern is amplified by other reports indicating that AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs globally (Vallance, 2023). This creates significant uncertainty about future employment and economic stability.

Once these beliefs were made explicit, we moved on to a deeper layer, the social causes layer, which investigates the underlying structures, systems, and policies that produce these litanies.

Step 2: Systemic Causes

The systemic Causes phase encouraged participants to consider the underlying causes of these issues and to think about what can be changed.

For the first litany, “Brain Drain” the workshop participants highlighted poverty and the relatively low quality of life as key drivers behind the emigration of Romania’s skilled population.

Romania ranks near the bottom of the EU in terms of GDP per capita, and many citizens struggle with access to high-quality healthcare, infrastructure, and social services, prompting especially younger individuals to seek opportunities abroad. According to the latest measurements by Eurostat, in 2023, 32% of Romanians lived at risk of poverty (Eurostat, 2025).

For the second litany, “Aging Population” participants attributed Romania’s aging population largely to demographic imbalances created by youth emigration, geopolitical uncertainty contributing to low birth rates, and a reactive (vs. preventive) healthcare system and low health literacy.

Over the past two decades, hundreds of thousands of young Romanians have left the country, resulting in a shrinking base of working-age citizens and a growing elderly population that depends on them. Low birth rates were connected to broader anxieties about the future. In 2024, fewer than 150,000 babies will be born, the fewest in the last 100 years (Popa, 2025)

Lastly, the systemic causes of the “pAIdemic” were identified as job insecurity caused by “AI taking over”. These fears are particularly acute in Romania’s more industrialized regions, where automation threatens jobs without providing adequate pathways for retraining or redeployment.

Step 3: Worldview

The Worldview layer in CLA explores the deeper societal beliefs, ideologies, and values that shape how we interpret the world. The idea behind this exercise is to find deeper social, linguistic, and cultural structures that are actor-invariant (Virmajoki, 2022). It means that the focus is on the deep-seated patterns and assumptions that don’t belong to a certain individual, but they belong to a collective.

Brain Drain:

• “In another country, life is better.”
• “Here, there’s no room for growth.”

The underlying belief that “life is better elsewhere” or “no room for growth here” acts as a powerful, collective narrative that shapes the overall phenomenon of brain drain.

Romania is getting older:

• “It makes sense to have a child only if I have all the material conditions.”
• “I don’t trust Romania as a state.”
• “Low birth rates are typical of developed societies—life is easier and people have more options.”

These attitudes in Romania are shaped by economic and institutional insecurity, and comparison with Western living standards.

pAIdemic:

• “There is no respect for people.”
• “Entrepreneurs and organisations only care about profit at any cost.”
• “We lack motivation or belief that we can build something better—we settle for less.”

These perceptions stem from Romania’s challenging history, complicated transition to democracy and capitalism. The sense of resignation (“settling for less”) is both a coping mechanism and a product of structural obstacles to meaningful change. However, many Romanians are challenging these narratives.

Step 4: Myth & Metaphor

The myth and metaphor layer explores the deepest, often unconscious stories and archetypes that shape how people experience the world. It is the deepest layer of the CLA pyramid. They are deep stories and collective archetypes that can be deeply felt but are not necessarily available to conscious understanding or control’ (Oluseyi et. al., 2022).

Myths in Romanian culture often draw from a mix of ancient Dacian traditions, Slavic influence, and Christian motifs. They explain the origins of nature, human fate, and moral order, while also expressing national character and resilience. As Inayatullah says, ‘deconstructing underlying myths/metaphors is key to critiquing power and enabling future possibility.’ (Inayatullah, 2004)

In our workshop, we tried to engage with metaphors that are distinctive to the Romanian cultural context.

One powerful transformation observed during the workshop was around the Brain drain litany. The team’s discourse shifted from a limiting metaphor: “The neighbor’s grass is greener” (“Iarba vecinului este mai verde”) to an empowering one, such as “There’s no place like home”. On its surface, this might seem a simple translation of an English idiom, but in the Romanian context, it evokes deeper stories of historical longing, systemic distrust, and migration as escape. This “grass is greener” myth refers to a psychic wound, manifesting as both aspiration and quiet shame: the idea, which persists today, that flourishing can only happen elsewhere.

However, during the workshop, participants began to articulate a counter-myth: the rediscovery of value and belonging within Romania, “There’s no place like home”. This metaphor is not only nostalgia, but also a story of return. More and more Romanians are returning home from the diaspora.

Another metaphor uncovered during the workshop is “If you try many fields, you’re unstable”. This taps into older myths of stability, tradition, and linear progression, where career loyalty means virtue, and deviation from a fixed path signals personal failure or confusion.

Litany: Romania is getting older

The central metaphor identified is “the emancipation of women”. This metaphor reflects a shift in life priorities, autonomy, and the redefinition of traditional roles. Older generations were shaped by a myth of the sacrificial mother, whose social worth was measured by how much she cared for family and nation. The new metaphor—emancipation—signals a rupture: young Romanian women are authors of their destinies.

Litany: pAIdemic

For the last litany, the participants have identified three metaphors:

• “Robots will take over.”
• “AI will surpass human intelligence.”
• “That’s not reality, it only happens in movies”.

Rooted in a history of failed utopian promises, the Romanian tendency to view narratives of technological domination as “only in movies” is a form of cultural defence.

Inayatullah repeatedly argues that at the deepest level of social change (in the CLA framework), myths and metaphors powerfully shape collective meaning and behaviours. Strategies or policies that do not speak to these deep stories are unlikely to succeed (Tang, 2024).

Step 5: New Myth Metaphor

During the workshop, participants were asked to co-create new myths and metaphors that reflect a more hopeful vision for Romania about each of the litanies analysed.

Rather than viewing emigration as the only path to a better life, participants proposed metaphors that recenter home as a source of pride, identity, and opportunity.

• “There’s no place like home”, reframes Romania as a place worth returning to and investing in.
• “No matter how well you do abroad, you’re still a foreigner”.

Participants envisioned a Romania where ageing is associated with purpose and contribution, rather than decline or dependency:

• “Let’s see ourselves as pillars of society”, challenges the myth of the passive retiree.
• “Romania is a good choice to live and work,” where Romania becomes not just a place to grow old, but a desirable and fulfilling place for all generations to live, work, and participate.

In response to fearful narratives about artificial intelligence, participants offered new symbols of human-AI collaboration:

• “AI is the skeleton doing the heavy lifting”, depicts AI as a framework that carries out repetitive or difficult tasks, freeing people to pursue creativity, decision-making, and meaningful work.
• “Humans continue to think, decide, and create”, shows irreplaceable qualities of human intelligence.

Step 6: New Culture

This layer asks: What new ways of thinking, relating, and acting must we nurture to support systemic change? During the foresight workshop, participants were invited to imagine what kinds of cultural shifts would be necessary to move beyond current limitations.

To address Romania’s ageing demographic, participants envisioned a “baby-friendly culture”, a society that supports caregiving, nurtures empathy, and values inclusion across generations.

Rather than fear due to AI, participants imagined a culture in which creativity, imagination, and moral evolution are important, especially among younger generations.

• “Children would use AI to generate new possible futures.”
• “Maybe people become better, more gratitude-oriented.”

To counteract the persistent outflow of talent and the societal fragmentation it causes, participants imagined a culture of inclusion, intergenerational collaboration, and rediscovered national value.

• “A culture inclusive of both youth and experienced generations”.
• “You can enjoy a great life in Romania.”

Step 7: New Systems and Policies

The “New Systems” layer in Causal Layered Analysis identifies the policies, infrastructures, technologies, and formal structures that must be created or transformed to enable a desired future. During the workshop, participants imagined what kind of systemic changes would help Romania thrive. The participants identified the following new systems:

Romania is getting older:

• Improved education from nursery to high school.
• Stronger economic development.
• Fertility support policies for couples.

pAIdemic

• 30% youth quotas in political leadership.
  Political mentorship programs for young people.

Brain drain

• Partnerships between schools/universities and companies to support youth employment.
• Tax benefits for young people and seniors.
• Professional retraining programs.

Step 8: New Measurements

Finally, the last layer focuses on metrics that reflect a shift toward a more desirable future. Workshop participants suggested alternative ways to measure Romania’s development, not only GDP-related, but also to include social and cultural well-being.

• Romania is getting older: Progress can be measured by achieving a positive natural growth rate, meaning that the number of births exceeds the number of deaths.
• pAIdemic: Indicators include youth voter turnout and the representation of young people in elected positions. Additionally, success stories of youth-led political or civic change.
• Brain Drain: Measurement focuses on the number of Romanians emigrating abroad, alongside tracking the influx of high-skilled immigrants who choose Romania as their destination.

Conclusions

The application of CLA in this context revealed several key findings:

1. Participants found the method effective for deepening their understanding of complex issues
2. The structured approach helped move beyond surface-level analysis
3. The collaborative nature of the exercise generated diverse perspectives.

In terms of future applications, several potential directions can be noted:

• Policy development processes
• Corporate strategic planning
• Community engagement initiatives
• Educational programs.

The need for futures thinking in addressing societal challenges has become increasingly apparent. As Inayatullah notes, “We see the future as a learning journey, not as a site of prediction.” (Božanić, 2020). This perspective is relevant when dealing with complex issues like brain drain, demographic changes, and technological disruption that require long-term, systemic approaches.

Authors

Diana Stafie ¹ and Luana Galoiu ¹

¹ Future Station, a foresight consultancy practice based in Bucharest, 014213, Romania.

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