مسائل متحول کننده آسیا تا سال 2038 نویسنده: سهیل عنایت الله مترجم: محمد علی برادران قهفرخی[1] با دیدن وضعیت آسیا خصوصا مناطق شرق، جنوب و جنوب شرقی، چشم انداز من از آینده این قاره که برخی آنرا ” خیزش یا قیام عظیم “[2] تلقی می کنند در واقع گذر از فقر به ثروت اقتصادی ( به صورت ناهمگن)، گذر از نشخوارکنندگان منفعلانه دانش و معرفت به سوی آفرینشگران واقعیت به صورت کاملا فعالانه و هوشمندانه و تغییر از فرهنگ گذشته نگری به فرهنگ آینده نگری می باشد. چیزی که شاهد آن خواهیم بود در واقع پتانسیل های آسیا برای قدرت…
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هفت نیروی شگرف در خدمت آینده پژوهان نویسنده : سهیل عنایت الله مترجم: محمد علی برادران قهفرخی تصویر شماره 1 – منبع مادامی که فردا شبیه امروز باشد نتیجه جز ملالت و سرافکندگی چیزی نیست. انسان امروزی به دنبال تازگی و چیزهای بدیع هست لذا در این برهه از زمان فردا قطعا شبیه امروز نخواهد بود چرا که ما در اوج و بهبوحه تغییرات اجتماعی و فناورانه هستیم که به برخی از آنها در ذیل اشاره می کنم. 1- تغییرات دموگرافیک درآفریقا به نحوی رقم خواهد خورد که 40 درصد کودکان دنیا در سال 2050 در این قاره زندگی خواهند کرد…
By Sohail Inayatullah and Peter Black 這是「黑天鵝」嗎? 來自上海的「未來學家俱樂部」（Futurist Circle）發起人Louis（鄭科驥）提出這個想法，他認為，既然從未有人預測過 COVID-19 冠狀病毒的出現，那麼是否可算是個「黑天鵝」？[1] 我們的回答是否定的。主要是由於「黑天鵝」現象，是指涉一個無法預測，且完全出乎意料之事。這次的冠狀病毒，其實有跡可尋；它只是新興傳染病（EIDs）預測中的一個冠狀病毒，事實上，人們更應該開始為面對另一個冠狀病毒的出現作準備。 這個預測並非空穴來風，基於以下的5個論證，我們認為這是即將來臨的事實： 這項討論，從廿世紀末，在新興傳染病預防的文獻和探討中已有一定比例的增加趨勢(Morse, 1995)。 不少學者和專家都同意，某些嚴重的新興傳染病常藉由單一具有高度突變性的RNA病毒所引發，而且常是源自於動物。近期70%的新興傳染病多源自於人畜共通傳染病，而且多來自於野生動物 (Jones et al., 2008)。 冠狀病毒是近期新興傳染病領域中最活躍的病種，2003年的嚴重急性呼吸道症候群(SARS)和2012年的中東呼吸系統症候群(MERS)，其病種都是冠狀病毒(Fan et al., 2019)。 蝙蝠在新興傳染病學研究及科學文獻中，已被證實是最常見的病毒來源(Olival et al., 2017)。 研究指出，SARS和人畜共通傳染病最常見也最容易傳播的場所，多半在現場宰殺的傳統市場。在人畜共通傳染病研究中，病毒的傳播通常來自飛禽類（鳥市或是生禽市場），而SARS則是源自於買賣野生動物的傳統市場(Webster, 2004)。雖然，自SARS發生以來，不少國家已致力於改善甚至取消傳統市場（FAO, 2015）-尤其是販售各樣野生動物的市集，但效果不彰。因為傳統市場的存在，牽涉到社會、經濟和文化的因素。雖然我們相信，不久的將來，傳統市場的勢微，會是個重要的政策，但我們也預期「文化把策略當早餐吃」，不需要全球性的共識和文化上的新轉變，傳統市場仍會回籠。 前述五項都是在COVID-19前已提出，因此，對新興傳染病領域的學者專家來說，此現象並不值得過於驚訝。僅管確切的發生時期難以預測，但是從販賣野生動物的傳統市場而引發的冠狀病毒傳染，並不是不可預期的事(Fan et al., 2019)。 在未來學中，未來洞察力不是指涉我們可以預期確切的時間點，那是屬於市場投資和股票交易等的領域。對未來的洞察，是在於預期明天（未來）的議題和現象，並從今天開始行動以解決或解除。以此觀之，冠狀病毒的根源，或說是微弱訊息，早在10多年前就已出現。 「文化把策略當早餐吃」 那麼，身為未來學者的我們，為什麼要選擇在這個流行病的中期，提出這些討論和訊息呢？在中國的未來學者們提出幾點討論： 首先，「這與中華飲食文化有很深的關聯-現宰現殺的生鮮肉品是華人的首選」；此外， 食物危機的記憶還深植人心。再者，對政府的仍具有某種程度的不信任。例如：「人民對於冷凍肉品的認知過少，主要是由於資訊的不透明，因此他們忽視傳統市場禁止買賣活禽生獸的規範」。那些販者有些是私獵戶，只想獲利，對於可能造成的社會成本置之不理。除此之外，許多較原始或少數部落仍有著『食用現宰的「活禽生獸」更健康，因為等同於吃進「生命」』的遠古觀念。因此，對於禁令的漠視或緩慢回應，就不難理解。 這不單是文化上，或是擔心通報會丟工作，還需考量中國在文明化上仍存在不同的落差。在這個脈絡中，包含有「古世界觀點」、「共產主義世界觀」以及現在必然要涵括的「全球性世界觀」。自從事件曝光後，中國政府改為透明化且動態地釋出訊息，也已使得病毒的傳播有比較明顯的趨緩，給世界有因應的時機。 社會議題的形成或者難以言喻，又參雜多元的觀點-通常是相互角力的；其中來自各方的利益與策略糾纏不清，引領議題朝著不同的方向延伸，也在造成剖析上的複雜性。 我們用未來學的因果層次分析法(Causal Layered Analysis, CLA, Inayatullah and Milojević, 2015)列出六個核心架構的不同層次觀點-傳統市場販商、官僚（用以解釋COVID-19在中國擴散初期的狀況以及在伊朗的狀況）以及四個當下的緩衝策略端-中古世紀角度、醫療角度、市場以及普羅大眾。 傳統市場 官僚 公衛 醫療 經濟 普羅大眾 表層 讓傳統市場繼續營運 不分享有關疾病的消息 減緩病毒使系統機制得以運作 確保醫藥及健康體系可以產生解方 經濟指標-持續衰退 懼怕與恐慌 系統 • 在可能終止營運的張力下工作 • 游走法外 工作-害怕因前述的現象被清算 • 隔離 • 社交距離 • 監控 • 封鎖 • 縮短擴散曲線峰距 • 利用apps和人工智慧 • 找出疫苗解除所有疫情 • 運用新科技加速解決方案的執行和產生 • 收益與互聯網引發下跌的壓力 • 不確定性嚴重影響市場經濟 • 人們試圖尋求可依循的方向 • 領袖和企業領導者對如何平衡經濟和公衛沒有明確的決策 世界觀 經濟-獲利，致富 政治-主權 中古世紀-安全 醫療-加上AI人工智慧加上部份公衛的範圍 資本家-市場經濟 群眾傾向扁平的體系，但尋求專家意見…
By Garry Honey At the time of writing Europe is the epicenter of the Coronavirus pandemic with daily death rate climbing in Italy, Spain, and the UK. Based on the news from China, the death rate should start to fall within a few weeks, and policies of social distancing and lockdown begin to be relaxed. There is still a long time before a vaccine will be made available, and there are forecasts of a resurgence and second wave to come. Much is still unknown about the virus that causes COVID-19, but the economic impact of isolation and quarantine will be…
By Umar Sheraz Dr. Peter Black is a foresight practitioner and veterinary epidemiologist with extensive experience in addressing emerging infectious disease threats. His experience has included working as the Deputy Regional Manager of the Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD) based in Bangkok with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and as Director of One Health and Director of Emergency Animal Disease Preparedness for the Australian Government Department of Agriculture. In these roles, he has managed the implementation of the Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) Programme with a wide range of government and non-government partners across ten countries…
By Jose Ramos, Ida Uusikyla and Nguyen Tuan Luong The Corona-virus pandemic has highlighted how a weak signal (the evolution of corona-viruses) can generate a wildcard event, massive disruption with huge implications. It also highlights the value of social foresight, long term thinking geared toward the public good. Unfortunately, as we are seeing with the pandemic, it is a little too late. Under-investment by governments in identifying, understanding and mitigating emerging risks has meant that most countries were not prepared. We are now experiencing the deadly consequences. But pandemics are only one of a number of issues that as societies…
Over the last few months the world has been affected by the novel corona virus (COVID-19). Evidence seems to show that this zoonotic disease originated from the Wuhan region of China. The consequential social and economic fallout of COVID-19 has been nothing short of devastating. Many countries are now under indefinite lockdown as a way of curtailing the spread of this menacing virus. While the cost in human death and suffering has been considerable this pandemic has engendered an existential crisis with long term consequences. Arguably, not since 9/11 has an event disturbed our collective psyche as this current pandemic,…
By Kristina Dryža The psychiatrist and founder of analytical psychology C. G. Jung explained, “All the most powerful ideas in history go back to archetypes.”[1] Archetypes are said to be psychic power patterns dwelling in the deeper layers of the unconscious. According to Jung, the collective unconscious is part of the unconscious mind, incorporating patterns of memories, instincts, and experiences common to humankind.[2] The collective unconscious doesn’t exist in a geographical space, or in a part of the brain, or in a research report. Rather, it exists in the field of our connected humanity, which we may access through the…
By Sohail Inayatullah and Peter Black Our colleague Louis Zheng from the Shanghai FuturistCircle suggested that no one had predicted COVID-19 Coronavirus. “Is it a black swan?” he asked.[1] Our response was that this is not a black swan, as a black swan event is defined as being unpredictable, a total surprise. The reason this coronavirus is not a black swan is that the emergence of another coronavirus was predicted by many working in the emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) field. Indeed, we argue that we need to be getting ready for the next “Corona”. The predictability is on a number…
By Fayaz Ahmed and Sohail Inayatullah Fayaz Ahmed: First of all, please tell us a little bit about yourself and your background. I was born in Pakistan and have lived in Bloomington, Indiana; Flushing, New York; Geneva, Switzerland; Kuala Lumpur; Malaysia; Honolulu, Hawaii; and, Mooloolaba, Australia. I live in Brisbane, Australia. I did my doctorate from the University of Hawaii, Department of Political Science. I focused on the South Asian Philosopher, Shrii P.R. Sarkar. I examined his theory of history and vision of the future. I compared and contrasted his spiral theory of history with other macrohistorians such as Ibn…