By Garry Honey At the time of writing Europe is the epicenter of the Coronavirus pandemic with daily death rate climbing in Italy, Spain, and the UK. Based on the news from China, the death rate should start to fall within a few weeks, and policies of social distancing and lockdown begin to be relaxed. There is still a long time before a vaccine will be made available, and there are forecasts of a resurgence and second wave to come. Much is still unknown about the virus that causes COVID-19, but the economic impact of isolation and quarantine will be…
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By Umar Sheraz Dr. Peter Black is a foresight practitioner and veterinary epidemiologist with extensive experience in addressing emerging infectious disease threats. His experience has included working as the Deputy Regional Manager of the Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD) based in Bangkok with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and as Director of One Health and Director of Emergency Animal Disease Preparedness for the Australian Government Department of Agriculture. In these roles, he has managed the implementation of the Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) Programme with a wide range of government and non-government partners across ten countries…
By Jose Ramos, Ida Uusikyla and Nguyen Tuan Luong The Corona-virus pandemic has highlighted how a weak signal (the evolution of corona-viruses) can generate a wildcard event, massive disruption with huge implications. It also highlights the value of social foresight, long term thinking geared toward the public good. Unfortunately, as we are seeing with the pandemic, it is a little too late. Under-investment by governments in identifying, understanding and mitigating emerging risks has meant that most countries were not prepared. We are now experiencing the deadly consequences. But pandemics are only one of a number of issues that as societies…
Over the last few months the world has been affected by the novel corona virus (COVID-19). Evidence seems to show that this zoonotic disease originated from the Wuhan region of China. The consequential social and economic fallout of COVID-19 has been nothing short of devastating. Many countries are now under indefinite lockdown as a way of curtailing the spread of this menacing virus. While the cost in human death and suffering has been considerable this pandemic has engendered an existential crisis with long term consequences. Arguably, not since 9/11 has an event disturbed our collective psyche as this current pandemic,…
By Kristina Dryža The psychiatrist and founder of analytical psychology C. G. Jung explained, “All the most powerful ideas in history go back to archetypes.”[1] Archetypes are said to be psychic power patterns dwelling in the deeper layers of the unconscious. According to Jung, the collective unconscious is part of the unconscious mind, incorporating patterns of memories, instincts, and experiences common to humankind.[2] The collective unconscious doesn’t exist in a geographical space, or in a part of the brain, or in a research report. Rather, it exists in the field of our connected humanity, which we may access through the…
By Sohail Inayatullah and Peter Black Our colleague Louis Zheng from the Shanghai FuturistCircle suggested that no one had predicted COVID-19 Coronavirus. “Is it a black swan?” he asked.[1] Our response was that this is not a black swan, as a black swan event is defined as being unpredictable, a total surprise. The reason this coronavirus is not a black swan is that the emergence of another coronavirus was predicted by many working in the emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) field. Indeed, we argue that we need to be getting ready for the next “Corona”. The predictability is on a number…
By Fayaz Ahmed and Sohail Inayatullah Fayaz Ahmed: First of all, please tell us a little bit about yourself and your background. I was born in Pakistan and have lived in Bloomington, Indiana; Flushing, New York; Geneva, Switzerland; Kuala Lumpur; Malaysia; Honolulu, Hawaii; and, Mooloolaba, Australia. I live in Brisbane, Australia. I did my doctorate from the University of Hawaii, Department of Political Science. I focused on the South Asian Philosopher, Shrii P.R. Sarkar. I examined his theory of history and vision of the future. I compared and contrasted his spiral theory of history with other macrohistorians such as Ibn…
by Edward Niedbalski and Q A Zheng Building on groupwork at Professor Sohail Inayatullah’s Sep ’19 Bangkok workshop, we use Futures Triangle methodology to make the case and envision the future potential for highly self-sufficient urban food systems. At Prof Sohail Inayatullah’s seminar, “Futures Thinking and Strategy Transformation”, conducted in Bangkok in September 2019, there was high interest among delegates in the future of food security, particularly as pertaining to Urban Food Systems. The Asia-Pacific Foresight Network conference earlier that week had already seen much discussion and focus on the future of global and regional food systems and the many…
By Sohail Inayatullah e Jaqueline Weigel O MÉTODO CLA INTEGRADO EM CENÁRIOS Um dos participantes baixou o tom de voz e disse: “Tenho vergonha de admitir, mas meu filho está envolvido no tráfico de hambúrgueres”. Essa foi a linha da apresentação do grupo “Alimentos saudáveis” no debate sobre os futuros dos alimentos em 2030. Durante o workshop de Futures Thinking e Método CLA no Rio de Janeiro, quatro grupos apresentaram suas descobertas. Eles usaram o método de cenários integrados desenvolvido por Inayatullah. Nessa abordagem, são desenvolvidos quatro cenários: o preferido, o renegado, o integrado e o outlier. O grupo do…
By Sohail Inayatullah and Jaqueline Weigel THE CLA METHOD INTEGRATED INTO SCENARIOS One of the participants lowered this voice, and said: “I am ashamed to admit it, but my son is involved with hamburger dealing”. This was the punch line of the “Healthy organic food” group’s presentation on the Futures of Food 2030. During the Futures Thinking and CLA Method workshop at Rio de Janeiro, four groups presented their findings. They used the Integrated scenario method developed by Inayatullah. In this approach, four scenarios are developed: the preferred, the disowned, the integrated and the outlier. The preferred group conceived of…