Scope of This Review
This review focuses on the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies’ Report No. 22 on Arab Futures: Three Scenarios was issued in February of 2015. The report is a summary report of a larger 200-page book that was published after it was issued. The book is not part of this review, however, given that it is presumed to be an elaboration of the report and, conversely, the report contains the essential points of the book, there may not be a significant discrepancy between the two over the points raised in this review. The report’s institutional affiliation would lead one to expect a well-researched empirically based foundation upon which an informed projection of the current dynamics might be plotted. What is offered instead falls well short. It is useful as a study in the pitfalls of scenario development from shaky premises and limited implementation of forecasting tools developed over the past few years.