Article
Nisreen Lahham1,*, Julius Gatune2, Mohamed Saleh 3, Hammou Laamrani4, Reham Youssef 5
1Head of Futures Studies Forum for Africa and the Middle East, Climate Change and Greening Agriculture Technical Specialist, FAO RNE
2Futurist, UNESCO futures literacy Chair, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology and Assistant Professor, Maastricht School of Management (MSM)
3Futurist, Dean of Faculty of Business Informatics, Egypt University of Informatics
4Senior Environmental Expert
5Futurist, Public Policy and Partnership Team Lead, UNDP Egypt
Abstract
This article examines the drivers and future pathways for the reuse of treated wastewater across the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, examining its technical, policy, and institutional dimensions. It applies four foresight methodologies: Environmental Scanning to identify drivers of change, Delphi Method to assess these drivers, Futures Wheel to map systemic impacts by 2030, and Scenario Planning to synthesize experts’ insights into coherent future pathways. These methods generate evidence-based, forward-looking insights to support the expansion of treated wastewater reuse in the kingdom. The study also reflects on applying foresight methodologies, highlighting their value, limitations, and implications for evidence-informed strategic decision-making.
Keywords
Futures Wheel, Delphi method, Treated wastewater reuse, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030
Introduction
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is facing an increasingly severe water demand-supply imbalance, with approximately 80% of the country’s water needs sourced from non-renewable groundwater (Alotaibi et al., 2023). Agriculture, which accounts for over 88% of total water consumption, remains overwhelmingly reliant on these finite groundwater reserves (Alhajri et al., 2025). Extensive agricultural development has contributed to the near depletion of non-renewable groundwater resources and a deterioration of water quality (Baig et al., 2020). If these trends continue without corrective measures, groundwater aquifers are likely to be exhausted, potentially leading to severe water shortages within a few decades (Alhajri et al., 2025).
This situation underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies, particularly the expanded use of treated wastewater (TWW) in agriculture as a sustainable and resilient alternative. Accordingly, expanding TWW reuse has become a strategic national priority in the kingdom. The National Water Strategy 2018–2030 sets an ambitious target to increase TWW reuse to 70%, equivalent to approximately 1.8 billion m³ annually by 2030, and more than 90% by 2040 (Saudi Water Partnership, 2024).
Notably, in KSA, TWW reuse increased by 152% in 2023 compared to 2007, reflecting a growing recognition of its value across multiple sectors, particularly agriculture (Alhajri et al., 2025). However, only 26% of TWW is currently reused, primarily for agricultural and landscaping purposes, while the majority continue to be discharged into natural environments such as valleys, sand dunes, and coastal zones (Al-Zahrani et al., 2023). Projections indicate that TWW volumes will almost double by 2035 (Alhajri et al., 2025). This projected growth underscores the urgent need for forward-looking planning to support the expansion of TWW reuse in alignment with increasing domestic and industrial water (Suhail et al., 2024) and national sustainability goals.
This study applies foresight methods to address critical gaps of our understanding on TWW reuse. Much of the knowledge in this domain remains confined within disciplinary silos and fails to capture the broader water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) interlinkages and anticipate long-term socio-ecological impacts. This research therefore seeks to apply foresight assumptions and beliefs that maintain these silos and provide a wider perspective that help stakeholders see the wider WEFE nexus thus triggering now thinking and solutions.
Foresight was applied in this study to address the inherent complexity of TWW reuse, which involves a broad range of stakeholders with diverse interests, perceptions, and values, alongside significant uncertainties and risks. These challenges call for inter- and transdisciplinary approaches. Foresight methodologies provide effective tools for navigating such complexity by fostering inclusive engagement and integrating multiple perspectives into the planning process.
By applying this approach, the study identifies key drivers and strategic interventions required to scale the safe and sustainable reuse of TWW in KSA, emphasizing that success depends not only on technological advancements but also on comprehensive reforms in policy, governance, and institutional structures.
Methodological Framework
A structured foresight process was employed as shown in figure 1.
Fig. 1: Foresight Approach
Scoping
The study sought to explore the future of treated wastewater in KSA with emphasis on the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) Nexus. One additional domain (health) was included to reflect the broader implications of TWW reuse within the framework of sustainable development and Vision 2030.
Environmental Scanning
Environmental scanning synthesized current research on trends and drivers (including barriers) and impacts of TWW reuse in the agricultural sector of KSA. This scanning was also complemented by interviews with experts in the various domains. The experts were identified through internet/media search and also snowballing where one expert recommended another.
The underlying drivers represented by the scans were identified and grouped using the PESTEL Framework that groups drivers in Political (P), Economic (E), Social (S), Technology (T), Environmental (E) and Legal (L) domains.
Exploring Drivers
The issues, trends and drivers that were identified through environmental scanning were analyzed using two complementary approaches. First, the potential impacts of treated wastewater reuse were examined across first, second, and third order effects using the Futures Wheel (FW) methodology; (Glenn. J., 2021). This approach was applied to explore the implications of treated wastewater reuse in the KSA by 2030, through the integrative lens of the WEFE-H Nexus, enabling a holistic visualization of potential cascading effects across sectors.
The second level of analysis involved mapping the identified drivers according to their impact and degree of certainty. This was carried out using the Delphi Method-(Gonzales et al., 2025), which enabled the assessment and prioritization of drivers of change and through an Importance and Uncertainty Matrix, Experts evaluated each driver’s strategic significance and the likelihood of its realization by 2030. Special attention was given to high importance, high uncertainty drivers, as these represent critical leverage points as well as barriers to progress.
Experts Selection
Stakeholders affected by the anticipated consequences of treated wastewater reuse were first identified, and a group of experts representing these diverse stakeholder groups were subsequently selected. In May 2025, the research team convened a webinar with 12 participants to introduce the use of the Futures Wheel as a tool for exploring the potential impacts of TWW reuse in KSA. The participants represented a broad spectrum of disciplines, including water, energy, agriculture, health, trade, environment, and local communities, and came from public, private, and non-profit sectors. All were actively engaged with the topic and committed to shaping the future of treated wastewater reuse in the Kingdom. The same experts also constituted the Delphi panel.
Scenarios Development
A standard scenario cross method was used to develop scenarios. The two drivers with highest impact and highest uncertainty were selected (ensuring they are not from the same domain in the PESTEL framework) with potential stories/scenarios development. To get a rich picture, the potential manifestation of each of the other drivers under each scenario was explored.
Development of Plan of Action
The Policy Delphi method was applied to develop strategies for the safe, scalable and sustainable reuse of treated wastewater in the KSA by 2030. Through iterative rounds of experts’ consultation, the approach helped identify and refine priority actions, including their associated costs and benefits for expanding treated wastewater reuse. This methodology offers a comprehensive framework for generating actionable insights to inform policymakers, government agencies, technical specialists, and researchers.
Drivers of Reusing TWW in Agriculture in KSA
Literature Review
A range of studies and reports were reviewed, identifying several issues pertinent to the adoption of treated wastewater in agriculture. Some of these issues are discussed below.
Economic Issues
Lower cost and increased yields: TWW contains valuable plant nutrients—particularly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium—reducing the need for chemical fertilizers (FAO, 2015; Mishra et al., 2023) and thus serves as an effective supplement to chemical fertilizers. Hussain and Al-Saati (1999) reported that TWW could replace up to 50% of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers. TWW irrigation has been shown to lower fertilizer costs by up to 45% for wheat and 94% for alfalfa while also increasing yields 11% and 23% respectively (Aljaloud, 2010). TWW reuse in agriculture reduces input costs, improves nutrient use efficiency, and lowers water delivery expenses (Hussain & Al-Saati, 1999; Ouda, 2015).
Energy Saving: TWW reuse contributes to energy efficiency in agriculture by reducing the need for freshwater extraction and pumping (Dawoud et al., 2022). Municipal wastewater holds a recoverable energy potential of up to 9.7 kWh/m³, with up to 60% embedded in sludge (Gude, 2016). Anaerobic digestion (AD) can supply up to 40% of the energy needs of Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs); this contribution can increase up to 96% with advanced technologies (e.g. Thermal hydrolysis and co-digestion with food waste) (Ali et al., 2022; Guerra- Rodríguez et al., 2020; Budych-Gorzna, et al., 2021).
Pilot projects have demonstrated the feasibility of integrated systems that simultaneously treat wastewater and recover methane, nitrogen, and phosphorus, while cultivating algae for bioplastics and biofuels. Algae-bacteria consortia have been shown to enhance methane quality and nutrient recycling, thereby supporting circular bioeconomy objectives (Ali et al., 2022; Guerra- Rodríguez et al., 2020). At the utility scale, decentralized reuse systems and Resource Recovery Facilities (RRFs) offer cost recovery pathways and opportunities for public-private partnerships (World Bank, 2020). United Nation points that continually improving affordable wastewater management provides opportunities for both pollution reduction and clean water supply augmentation, while simultaneously promoting sustainable development and supporting the transition to a circular economy (UNU, Global Wastewater Status). KSA’s resource recovery initiatives from sludge, including the production of biogas, biodiesel, phosphorus, cellulose, enzymes, and construction materials, are expanding the economic potential of WWTPs. The sector’s annual resource recovery value is projected at US$3 billion by 2030 (Ali et al., 2022), underscoring the transition of WWTPs into integrated bio-resource facilities.
Infrastructure costs have limited the economic benefits of treated wastewater. Cost comparisons show that treated wastewater is significantly cheaper than desalinated water, at US$0.34–2.03/m³ compared to US$1.84/m³ with estimated national savings of up to US$0.67 billion annually (Chowdhury & Al-Zahrani, 2013). However, adoption remains constrained by high upfront infrastructure costs, making infrastructure development a critical factor for scaling up reuse in KSA. Despite substantial national investments, including the Treated Sewage Effluent Initiative and a SAR 15 billion allocation to 96 infrastructure projects (Smart Water Magazine, 2024),a significant share of treated effluent remains underutilized.
This shortfall is largely attributed to the lack of an integrated distribution network and limited connectivity to end-users. Approximately 40% of households are still unconnected to centralized wastewater systems, and many treatment plants were not initially designed with reuse applications in mind (Ali et al., 2022). Additionally, the continued reliance on truck-based delivery of TWW constrains operational efficiency and undermines the scalability of reuse initiatives (Alhajri et al., 2025). In summary, the current limitations in treatment capacity and distribution networks significantly restrict the availability and accessibility of TWW (MWE, 2024).
This underscores the need for mobilizing resources, especially through public private partnerships (PPPs). The private sector is seen as a key driver for expanding wastewater treatment infrastructure and modernizing water services, prerequisites for expanding the reuse of TWW in KSA. The Saudi government has taken significant steps towards promoting private sector participation (Mu’azu et al., 2020).
Environmental Issues
TWW irrigation can reduce groundwater abstraction by up to 60% and improve shallow groundwater recharge in some areas (Benaafi et al., 2024) and also reduce dependency on energy-intensive desalination (MEWA, 2025). The substitution of freshwater with TWW also enables the reallocation of high-quality water to domestic and industrial uses, supporting integrated water resources management (The United Nations World Water Development Report, 2017).
TWW by reducing use of inorganic fertilizer has potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This dual benefit of lowering both fertilizer input and emissions reinforces TWW’s role in advancing climate-smart agriculture and supporting broader climate goals (Alotaibi. et al., 2023).
TWW irrigation enhances soil organic carbon and microbial activity, supporting soil structure, nutrient retention, and pollutant degradation, and contributing to long-term soil health, regeneration, and resilience (Ibekwe et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2023; FAO, 2015).
Nevertheless, studies have highlighted environmental risks associated with the reuse of TWW in agriculture, particularly soil degradation including salinity, calcium deficiency, plant toxicity and excess accumulation of trace elements, such as zinc, iron, and xenobiotics. This results in reduced crop yields and adversely affecting plant health and food safety (Ibekwe et al., 2018; Alzabieh, 2024; Saleh et al. 2025; Soufan et al., 2019).
Further, the risks of aquifer contamination from nitrates and trace metals due to TWW discharge persist (Chowdhury & Al-Zahrani, 2013). The overall environmental impact of TWW reuse necessitates regular monitoring, adaptive practices, and robust regulatory frameworks to ensure safe and sustainable application (Mishra et al., 2023).
The KSA has taken measures to mitigate negative impacts. Under a Royal Decree issued in 2000, all wastewater, regardless of its intended reuse, discharge destination, or potential for public exposure, must undergo at least secondary and often tertiary, treatment (MWE, 2024). This reflects the Kingdom’s adoption of stringent standards for wastewater treatment and reuse, prioritizing public health and environmental protection (Dawoud. et al., 2022).
Monitoring treated wastewater quality confirms that effluents from tertiary treatment facilities generally comply with national standards, which are more stringent than those of many neighboring countries (Dawoud et al., 2022). Concentrations of heavy metals in most tertiary treated wastewater samples are well below regulatory limits, supporting their suitability for agricultural irrigation when properly managed (Chowdhury & Al-Zahrani, 2013).
However, full compliance with these regulations requires the development of advanced and capital-intensive treatment infrastructure, posing significant challenges in terms of scalability and economic feasibility. Although regulatory progress has been made, including the issuance of reuse guidelines in 2006 aligned with Vision 2030 and early religious approvals for reuse, implementation remains inconsistent across regions and sectors.
Legal/Policy Issues
While wastewater infrastructure is more advanced in major urban centers, smaller cities and rural communities still face limited access. Targeting small towns and villages generating less than 500 m³/day of wastewater could alleviate pressure on freshwater resources in water-scarce regions, while promoting a more inclusive, efficient, and regionally balanced wastewater management framework. In this regard, the Ministry of Water and Electricity (MWE) has set a target to achieve full TWW service coverage in all cities with populations exceeding 5,000 by 2025 (Alhajri et al., 2025). Achieving this objective will necessitate significant upgrades to existing treatment plants and related infrastructure, the integration of smart monitoring technologies, and the implementation of adaptive management strategies. However, given the high costs associated with centralized systems, a more practical and cost-effective alternative lies in adopting modular, adaptive, and decentralized treatment solutions. Expanding these decentralized systems can facilitate localized reuse, address logistical bottlenecks, and support broader national efforts to scale up TWW utilization.
As pointed out, capital investment is a key factor in the reuse of TWW particularly due to high upfront infrastructure costs. The financial viability of reuse projects, especially for small-scale or non-commercial farms, remains limited without targeted incentives, and supportive policy frameworks. Effective policies and financial mechanisms emerged as a key driver for mainstreaming reuse of WW in KSA. A significant gap persists between TWW production and actual reuse, largely due to low freshwater tariffs for agricultural irrigation, reducing incentives for farmers to switch from freshwater to TWW (Alhajri et al., 2025).
Technology Issues
Adopting the right technology is key to uptake of TWW. For example, the environmental challenge of TWW is more about technology used. Conventional wastewater treatment plants are not equipped to deep clean and leave many organic contaminants, such as chemicals. Treatment systems must remove harmful pathogens, such as viruses and amoebas using reverse osmosis. Indeed, it has been pointed out that treated wastewater can surpass quality of regular water, as reverse osmosis treatment pushes water at high pressure through a filter that’s so small, it squeezes out even sodium and chloride. The process cleans wastewater as much if not more than groundwater, the gold standard. Ozonation, biofiltration, and other cleaning techniques are there and need to be adopted (Binns, 2022). This is more a matter of mandating rather than innovating new treatment systems.
Technological innovation plays a pivotal role in strengthening both economic and environmental viability of treated wastewater reuse in KSA. In addition to water recovery, it enables the extraction of valuable byproducts, such as nutrients, biogas, and cellulose, while improving overall efficiency (Rahman et al., 2023). While technologies like biogas recovery and phosphate extraction are reaching stabilization or acceleration phases in the Kingdom, others, including bioplastics and bio-ALE, remain at early stages of development (Ali et al., 2022).
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly recognized as a key technological driver for expanding treated wastewater reuse in agriculture by enhancing economic viability. Technologies such as machine learning and neural networks can optimize treatment processes, enhance effluent quality, and enable real-time monitoring and control to ensure compliance with irrigation standards (Gulati, 2024). Artificial Intelligence also supports predictive maintenance and resource efficiency, allowing utilities to anticipate equipment failures, reduce costs, and optimize the use of energy and chemical use (Garg, 2024).
Adaptive irrigation methods are also critical (FAO, 2015). Experts emphasized that safe and effective use of treated wastewater for irrigation depends on the careful selection of appropriate techniques, such as drip, deficit, and smart irrigation, which enhance water use efficiency while minimizing environmental risks. These approaches enable precise application of treated wastewater based on crop requirements, soil properties, water availability and climatic conditions, thereby reducing evaporation, runoff, and the risk of groundwater contamination.
Social Issues
Public acceptance and trust in municipal water services are critical drivers for the successful reuse of TWW in KSA. While there is broad support for using TWW in landscaping and non-food crops, significant skepticism remains regarding its application to edible crops, largely due to concerns about food safety and health risks (Alzahrani et al., 2023). This skepticism is further exacerbated by limited public understanding of wastewater treatment processes and inconsistent messaging about the safety and quality of TWW (Ouda, 2015).
The resistance to reuse of treated wastewater by farmers and consumers even when the risk of contamination is very low is a global problem. The main reason for their reluctance is tied to their lack of adequate information and lack of trust in the managing and monitoring agencies (Chfadi et al., 2021). Knowledge about the water situation was found to be of importance in explaining the acceptance of using TWW (Govend et al., 2024). Using the right mix of messaging, communication medium, and information content, to provide clear and accurate information to the most reluctant and/or uninformed demographics was also key (Chfadi et al., 2021).
Many people also believe that Islamic religion prohibits reuse of treated wastewater. On the contrary, Islamic religion supports water demand initiatives as well as reuse of TWW that does not have negative impacts on public health. Notably, religious endorsement in 1978 by the Council of Leading Islamic Scholars in KSA provided societal legitimacy for TWW use, alleviating potential cultural and religious barriers (Mateo-Sagasta et al., 2022).
Distilling the Drivers of Change
The literature review pointed to a number of drivers. To systematically identify the drivers of change, in addition to the literature review, key informant interviews were conducted with experts from various sectors (water, energy, environment, urban planning) and disciplines (academia, industry, government) to reduce sector- specific biases. Twenty-one (21) drivers were identified, according to the PESTEL components were coded, as illustrated in Figure 2 to capture Political (P), Economic (E), Social (S), Technology (T) Environment (E) and Legal (L) drivers. These drivers were validated through multiple rounds of Delphi consultation, allowing for iterative refinement of expert input and the reduction of potential biases (Galvin, 2025).
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Fig. 2: Classification of Drivers Influencing TWW Reuse in KSA According to the PESTEL Framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal)
Exploring TWW Drivers
Exploring Drivers Impact and Uncertainty
As pointed out, the first level of analysis conducted was to explore the impact of the use of TWW in agriculture. Given the multidisciplinary nature of TWW reuse, the Futures Wheel proved particularly effective in visualizing impacts from diverse disciplinary and stakeholder perspectives. This step served to deepen collective understanding of trade-offs and interlinkages, laying the foundation for exploring potential futures (Daffara,2023).
The Futures Wheel methodology has been enhanced by overlaying the WEFE Nexus categories to the wheel of consequences to ensure a multiplicity of contexts are explored (TFSX, 2025). Given the scope of the study, two categories were added by the authors: health and economy.
Drawing on the participants’ deliberations, the study developed a Futures Wheel to examine the potential consequences of reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023. Through “what if” questioning, the framework mapped causal relationships from immediate impacts to second-order consequences and further downstream consequences.
Next, a handful of causal lines of consequence that contain significant risks and opportunities were discussed. The implications of reusing TWW in KSA are presented in Figure 3. Three rings radiating from the core event represent the first order, second order and third order consequences. The outer field contains fourth order impacts and more. The mapped impacts are generic and far from complete. However, it illustrates the complexity and the critical systems thinking required to respond holistically to this issue.
Fig. 3: Futures Wheel of impacts of TWW reuse in agriculture in KSA in 2030
The key positive impacts identified for reusing TWW in agriculture in KSA were securing water for other uses than agriculture, enhancing national food security, saving energy and conserving the environment. On the other hand, the key negative impacts identified were health risks, soil salinity, social rejection and uneconomic feasibility.
The feedback shows how the Futures Wheel with WEFE Nexus approach facilitates multi-factorial consequences to be mapped which leads to systemic critical thinking of possible futures. That is, the search for interrelations between impacts, across water, energy, food, environment, economy and health dimensions, not just casual linkages within one dimension.
During the second round of the Delphi consultation, experts assessed each driver based on its perceived importance and likelihood of realization by 2030, leading to their classification within an Importance– Uncertainty Matrix. This exercise identified a subset of drivers in Quadrant 1, those deemed both highly important and highly uncertain, as priority areas for focused policy intervention and strategic action. Figure 4 presents the full distribution of drivers across the matrix.
Fig. 4: Importance- Uncertainty Matrix
Developing TWW Scenarios
From the matrix mapping the two critical drivers are Public Acceptance and Private Sector investment. They have the potential for highest impact and at the same time high level of uncertainty. This intersection of the two drivers creates 4 potential scenarios of futures of TWW (Figure 5).
Fig. 5: Four potential scenarios based on the two critical drivers (Public Acceptance and Private Investment)
Scenario 1: “TWW-Led Green Renaissance” -High Private Sector Investment + High Public Acceptance.
This scenario envisions a thriving circular economy where TWW becomes a cornerstone of sustainable development. The private sector leads in innovation, commercialization, and scaling of TWW technologies. Startups and agribusinesses flourish, leveraging TWW for agriculture, bioproducts, and energy recovery. Public trust and cultural acceptance support widespread adoption. TWW is no longer a byproduct. It’s a valued resource that fuels green growth and food security in KSA.
Scenario 2: “The Export Oasis”- High Private Sector Investment + Low Public Acceptance.
In this scenario, the private sector has unlocked the commercial value of treated wastewater, while public acceptance remains limited. Consequently, its use is concentrated in niche, high-value export-oriented sectors, such as floriculture, biofertilizers, and industrial cooling, where consumer perceptions are less influential. Innovation clusters develop around economic zones, but social skepticism constrains broader domestic uptake. As a result, treated wastewater becomes economically viable yet remains socially marginal.
Scenario 3. “The Vision Without Market”- Low Private Sector Investment + High Public Acceptance
In this scenario, public awareness and acceptance of treated wastewater are high, while private sector engagement remains limited or absent. The government supports pilot projects, research centers, and demonstration farms to promote reuse. However, without strong private sector involvement, scaling up remains constrained. This leads to isolated “islands of excellence” that demonstrate potential but do not achieve full market integration. As a result, treated wastewater remains a well- supported vision that is not fully realized in practice.
Scenario 4. “The Wasted Potential World” – Low Private Sector Investment + Low Public Acceptance
In this pessimistic scenario, despite significant government investments in treated wastewater infrastructure, public trust remains low and private sector engagement is minimal. Persistent societal stigma limits adoption, even when water quality meets established safety standards. As a result, infrastructure remains underutilized, resources are wasted, and opportunities to enhance water, food, and environmental security are missed misinformation and weak stakeholder engagement further contribute to policy underperformance and sustained public resistance.
Policy and Innovation Pathways
The desired future of TWW is the TWW-Led Green Renaissance. To get to this future a number of actions are needed. The Delphi Method was used to get opinion of experts as to what need to be done to get to this desired future. Below is a summary of actions that were recommended.
Strong Regulation
A robust regulatory framework for treated wastewater reuse is critical to ensure its safe application in the KSA. Experts emphasized the importance of addressing the specific quality characteristics of treated wastewater, potential health risks to farm workers, protection of soil and groundwater, risks related to salinity and toxicity, and the costs of operation and maintenance. These considerations are essential to ensure that irrigation using treated wastewater is both safe and sustainable in the long term.
Experts highlighted the importance of aligning wastewater treatment processes with the intended reuse application. For low risk uses, such as irrigating timber trees or greenbelts, basic treatment including primary filtration and disinfection may be sufficient when applied under controlled conditions and in compliance with national guidelines. Secondary treatment is generally appropriate for ornamental and industrial crops. The required treatment level should be determined by the type of crops, particularly whether they are edible, consumed raw or cooked, or classified as root vegetables, leafy greens, or trellised plants. In cases where treated effluent is discharged into the environment, discharge location, whether into valleys or marine bodies, must correspond to the achieved treatment level in order to minimize ecological impacts.
It is recommended that KSA adopt more context-specific and flexible treatment standards that maintain public health and environmental safeguards.
Water Pricing
To promote the adoption of TWW in agriculture, experts recommended restructuring water pricing strategies by widening the tariff gap between freshwater and reclaimed water. This approach would not only help curb agricultural water demand but also enhance the economic attractiveness of using TWW for irrigation.
Additionally, wastewater tariffs should be revised to better reflect the economic value of the service and ensure the long-term financial sustainability of the wastewater system. While a wastewater tariff system has been introduced for governmental, commercial, and industrial users, a similar structure should be extended to the domestic sector. Any new tariff system must balance financial viability with the need to promote water conservation, considering the country’s social, cultural, and political context.
Attaching a higher value to water could lead to a change in behavior in KSA, making the citizens adopt sustainable water consumption. Targeted subsidies, risk-sharing arrangements, and incentives for upgrading infrastructure can help address adoption barriers —especially for smallholder farmers who may lack the financial capacity to invest.
Increased Awareness of Water Scarcity Challenge and Building Trust
It was mentioned by experts that adjustments to water and wastewater tariffs may face public resistance, particularly given the limited awareness of the country’s water scarcity. Therefore, targeted public and institutional awareness campaigns are essential to build support for tariff reforms and encourage TWW use across sectors.
Information is also powerful. It has been pointed out that when treated using reverse osmosis, TWW is a good as ground water (the gold standard for portable water) (Binns, 2022). Even in the absence of reverse osmosis, reuse waters are less cytotoxic than surface drinking waters. Thus, potable reuse can provide a safe, energy-efficient and cost-effective alternative water supply. Communicating this in an effective way is key (Alzahrani et al., 2023).
Beyond changing perception about reuse of TWW, there is also need for strengthening trust in municipal water services, which is essential to enhance public confidence in the reuse of water. People must believe that proper procedures and technologies are deployed. This will require both information and trusted influencers to communicate. Religious leaders’ role in communicating that the water is acceptable will continue to be key.
Joint efforts are needed from governmental, non-governmental, religious, academic, and aid institutions on developing appropriate educational and awareness programs and initiatives that improve public knowledge and perceptions. Transparent communication, public education campaigns, and awareness-raising initiatives are vital to improving perception, fostering acceptance, and promoting safe practices at both the utility and farm levels.
Capable State Institutions
Experts pointed out that successful engagement of the private sector requires a strong and capable public sector. Strengthening public-sector institutions is essential to sustain long-term private-sector involvement. This includes investing in human capacity development, enhancing regulatory frameworks, financial sustainability, and assured revenue streams. Policy and contractual clarity are needed to enable cost recovery and ensure that PPPs align with national development and equity goals.
Risk Management and Mitigation
While TWW reuse offers a strategic opportunity to strengthen water security in KSA, it also carries potential contamination risks that must be carefully managed. Addressing these risks requires the adoption of advanced treatment technologies, such as ultrafiltration, reverse osmosis, and real-time sensor-based monitoring, which can significantly improve effluent quality and reduce microbial and chemical contaminations In addition, regular monitoring of soil and crop quality is essential to safeguard environmental and human health while maximizing the agricultural benefits of TWW reuse. Continuous groundwater monitoring is also critical to ensure that TWW reuse contributes to water conservation objectives adversely affecting groundwater quality, particularly in vulnerable shallow aquifers.
Building a Strong TWW Innovation Ecosystem
Experts highlighted that integrating innovations into wastewater systems could significantly boost their economic returns and environmental performance, contributing to national decarbonization goals and circular economy strategies. Realizing this potential, however, depends on fostering domestic innovation ecosystems rather than relying solely on imported technologies. Some actions needed as first steps in building such an ecosystem include:
- Startup ecosystems and smart water hubs that can flourish with AI driving customized reuse models, data-driven farming, and decentralized treatment.
- AI-enabled platforms to optimize nutrient recovery, resource reuse, and energy savings, making WWTPs nearly self-sufficient.
Innovative Financing Models
To catalyze private sector engagement innovative financing models are needed. These include blended finance mechanisms that combine concessional climate finance with commercial capital; green bonds and sustainability-linked loans for TWW infrastructure; performance-based contracts that reward verified water, energy, and carbon savings; and risk-sharing facilities or guarantees to lower investor exposure. Linking these financing instruments to global climate finance frameworks (e.g., GCF, GEF) can align TWW reuse investments with national climate commitments and attract international co-financing.
Jumpstart a Circular Economy
Building new Resource Recovery Facilities (RRFs) is capital intensive. It’s more practical to upgrade retrofit existing centralized WWTPs to RRFs in the short term. This approach supports the transition to a circular economy in the water sector. Once sufficient experience is gained, resource recovery can also be implemented in new, smaller-scale plants, using sustainable technologies such as AGS-GDM, AnEMBR, and AnMBR, at the neighborhood scale. Technologies to recover methane (CH₄), phosphate, cellulose, and bio-ALE from sludge can be integrated into current WWTPS (Ali et al., 2025).
Leveraging AI
Integrated with IoT sensors, AI enables continuous water quality monitoring and adaptive irrigation management, increasing system resilience and public confidence (Gulati, S., 2024). These innovations collectively support the safe and scalable use of TWW in agriculture, aligning with KSA’s sustainability and Vision 2030 goals. However, there is a need to offer financial incentives (e.g., tax credits, R&D grants) for private utilities and agri-tech companies to develop and adopt AI-enabled reuse technologies, install AI-powered IoT sensors across centralized and decentralized WWTPs to monitor key parameters, and build technical capacities.
Other Policy Measures
Other innovative policy measures may also include offering subsidies to agricultural users of TWW, distributing smart irrigation technologies to enhance water efficiency, and fostering public–private partnerships to support broader adoption of water reuse practices.
Conclusion
In today’s context- characterized by rapid change, uncertainty, systemic interconnections, and unclear cause- effect relationships, often described as a VUCA world-policymakers are increasingly turning to foresight to support long term planning as traditional forecasting methods are no longer sufficient. In this framework, volatility refers to the speed and turbulence of change; uncertainty to the limited predictability of outcomes, even from familiar actions; complexity to the dense web of interdependence in globally connected systems; and ambiguity to the multiplicity of possible interpretations and outcomes (Bennett et al., 2014).
As climate change unfolds the need for rethinking water use will become increasingly critical and foresight will be key in helping design better water futures. This exercise demonstrates the application of foresight in this regard, using a participatory approach. The exercise not only brought a huge array of drivers and pointed to potential actions to bring about the desired futures, it has created a community of futures literate TWW stakeholders who have potential to developing to a community of foresight practice demonstrating the power of foresight in not only helping solve wicked problems but also in building capabilities of people. Training provided in FW and Delphi Method combined with participatory approach not only built the capacity of participants but also brough solutions that had buy-in built in.
The exercise also cleverly deployed the Futures Wheel in a richer way by overlaying who a structure that replicated something akin to Causal Loop thus allowing more deeper analysis of drivers and impact. This innovation also had the impact of increasing enthusiasm of participants as they could better visualize the interconnection of Water Energy Food, Environment and Health nexus and engaged in systems thinking. It helped stakeholders to see how they connected and how decisions they make impact on others. We believe integrating the two methods is better than using each separately.
All the same exercise could have been deeper and further enriched the solutions offered. While foresight has a huge toolset only 4 tools were applied (environmental scanning, Futures Wheel, Delphi, and Scenario cross). Some particularly important tools could have been employed, and these are discussed.
Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah, 1998) would have enabled a much deeper exploration of the assumptions surrounding treated wastewater and supported efforts to question and reframe them. It is a powerful approach for revealing the systems, ideologies and belief structures that sustain the status quo and limit the range of visible solutions. By making these underlying assumptions explicit, it allows participants to reconsider their perspectives and open new possibilities. This understanding is also important for identifying levers for change. For example, in a context such as KSA, where religious values and beliefs are influential, this approach could help clarify the potential role of religious leaders and other key actors in shaping and supporting preferred futures.
The Three Horizons Framework (Sharpe et al., 2016) would have been useful in extending the analysis of the desired treated wastewater future, particularly as innovation is central to this transition. It could have helped clarify how different forms of innovation contribute either to maintaining current systems or to enabling disruption. In addition to technological innovation, the tool would also support a more detailed exploration of business model innovation and social innovation.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge and extend their appreciation to Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd Center for Futuristic Studies at Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for funding the present research work. They also sincerely thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable and constructive comments, which significantly improved the quality of final manuscript.
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