by Eva Oloumi Sohail Inayatullah

On February 7th, 2025, at a full-day masterclass in Ottawa, a diverse group of foresight and policy practitioners gathered to explore the transformative potential of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Participants engaged in a series of exercises led by Sohail Inayatullah, ranging from theoretical deep dives into the CLA methodology to applied analyses of pressing issues in Canadian society. The topics discussed included the stagnation of the Canadian economy, the housing crisis, the degradation of Canadian values, and the provocative scenario of Canada as the 51st state. Complementing these discussions, a role-playing simulation known as the Sarkar Game illuminated hidden power dynamics and fostered systems thinking. This articledetails the masterclass’s structure, methodology, and outcomes, offering insights into how narrative reframing and multilayered analysis can facilitate innovative futures thinking.

Captures from the CLA Masterclass, Images by Simon Perez

Introduction

The Masterclass was initiated with an intent to build narrative foresight capacity with individuals working at the intersection of systemic transformation, policy and strategic foresight and it primarily attracted Government of Canada employees. The session, offered in Ottawa on February 7, 2025, and was designed as a transformative, hands-on masterclass in Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a futures methodology that moves beyond conventional social science research and forecasting methods to unpack discourses, archetypes, myths, and metaphors instead of forecasting the present through the use of alternative worldviews and narratives (Inayatullah, 2022).

The day began with an introduction by Eva Oloumi, setting the stage for a collaborative inquiry into how reframing problems can reveal the gaps between current conditions and collective visions and the latent opportunities for transformative change.

Sohail Inayatullah led participants through CLA’s theoretical concepts (Ahmed, F. (2020) and a series of practical exercises. The master class was organized into three phases: an introductory session to frame the CLA methodology application to contemporary Canadian issues. The CLA round table exploration included the controversial and timely topic of Canada becoming the 51st state. Afternoon activities featured embodied backcasting and an experiential segment aimed at uncovering hidden dynamics that influence behaviours, utilizing inner-CLA paired with the Sarkar Game (Inayatullah, 2013, 2022) .

Digital graphic recording of Masterclass introduction by Eva Oloumi

Methodology

Theoretical Foundations, and CLA Framework

Participants began by examining the CLA methodology’s theoretical underpinnings and practical applications to build a strong foundation (Inayatullah, 2008, 2013). Drawing on principles articulated by Inayatullah, the session underscored the importance of narrative and metaphor in effecting systemic change. The CLA model was presented as a tool for:

1. Changing the Metaphor/Myth: Encouraging shifts in dominant narratives.
2. Linking to Systemic Changes: Connecting surface issues to deeper systemic dynamics.
3. Re-measuring the Desired Future: Facilitating the development of alternative, value-based metrics.
4. Understanding Worldviews: Adding complexity through multilayered perspectives.
5. Auditing Projects: Using CLA as a diagnostic tool for evaluating initiatives.
6. Launching Projects with Inner Analysis: Emphasizing the importance of self-reflection in initiating transformative projects.

CLA Model by Sohail Inayatullah

Applied Exercises – Contemporary Canadian Challenges

Participants were asked to determine pressing issues they wanted to explore and self-select into self-directed breakout teams. Teams were then tasked with applying CLA to their chosen issue facing Canadian society across two time horizons: first, to understand the current state across the four CLA layers: litany, systemic factors, worldviews, and metaphors and then to consider how the layers would need to shift to bring about resolution in a future state. The issues examined were:

Canadian Economic Stagnation

Teams explored the transition/breakdown of traditional capitalist structures to envision a post-capitalist, values-based economy. They articulated shifts as metaphors, from “hustle culture” the predominant and relentless work culture and mindset observable in Canada, which values constant work and productivity and often links personal worth to busyness at the expense of well-being and balance to “mushroom economics,” a term defined by the group as a metaphor for a post-capitalist, regenerative, circular and value-based economic system. In this vision, the economy is envisioned as decentralized and interconnected, much like a mycelium network, where intergenerational equity, sustainability, and new economic metrics (such as a Nature-1st bitcoin and a wellness index) replace traditional profit-driven models.

Canadian Housing Crisis

Teams examined the housing challenge by contrasting the current market dynamics. The litany or observed reality is that housing prices in Canada are soaring, pushing younger generations into permanent renting (Farhan, 2024). The systemic causes surfaced in the CLA exercise being taxation, financial and government policies incentivizing treating housing as speculative investment vehicles and policy inertia keeping public housing underfunded.

The worldview supporting the system is that homeownership is treated as an investment and a personal financial achievement rather than a collective or human right (August, 2022). The metaphor or the deeper story underneath, “my house is my castle or kingdom, (Martin, 2023)” reinforces privatization and exclusion, observable in the acronym “NIMBY” or “Not in my back-yard” often used to describe the attitude underpinning the lack of policy innovation underpinning the Canadian housing crises.

The team stressed a shift from this current metaphor to the idea of “A home is a shared hearth” or homes as public goods, redefining housing as a fundamental human right and shared community resource rather than as a commodity, envisioning a future where traditional drivers like high interest rates and market speculation are replaced by equitable policies that emphasize affordability, collective well-being, and social cohesion, ultimately repositioning housing as a cornerstone for societal stability.

Fragmenting Canadian Values

In addressing the polarization and erosion of trust, teams reframed the narrative from a “broken mosaic” to an envisioned future of renewed dialogue and partnership. This exercise highlighted a shift from individualistic, tribal mentalities toward a collective, inclusive ethos. Participants investigated how contemporary Canadian society is experiencing cultural and social fragmentation, depicted through metaphors such as a “broken mosaic” or “tattered tapestry.” They envisioned a transformative future where these fractured values coalesce into a unified, dialogic society. The proposed narrative shift involves moving from isolation and polarization toward a renewed collective identity built on inclusivity, trust, and mutual care. Systemic changes would include establishing platforms for open dialogue, implementing policies that support multicultural engagement, and fostering collaborative governance, all under the guiding principle that “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

Health System Collapse

Discussions considered transitioning from a risk-averse, paternalistic system to a more dynamic, tech-enabled model prioritizing open-access and self-directed care. Here, the metaphor shifted from the doctor-as-authority to a “choose your own adventure” healthcare model. Teams analyzed the challenges of Canada’s health system, characterized by limited access, inefficiencies, and an overly rigid, centralized model often summarized by the metaphor “the doctor is always right.” They reimagined a future in which the healthcare system becomes decentralized, tech-enabled, and patient-empowered. The metaphor “choose your own adventure ” encapsulates this transformation,” reflecting a shift toward flexible, individualized care. The envisioned reforms include increased investment in primary care, digital health technology integration, and policies promoting open-access and community-led initiatives, thereby creating a resilient, responsive public health infrastructure (Zhang, 2023).

Scenario Analysis – Canada as the 51st State

Graphic recording and capture of Scenario Analysis module report out by Eva Oloumi

Background

Inspired by provocative headlines and geopolitical commentary, another exercise involved applying CLA to explore the possibility of Canada evolving into the “51st state” (Bonaparte, 2025; Wright, 2025). Participants examined the issue across two temporal horizons – the current state and potential future trajectories. By adopting different roles and stakeholder perspectives, teams generated alternative narratives, scrutinized underlying assumptions, and considered policy implications that ranged from the reconfiguration of national identity to strategic international alignments. Participants examined the possibility of Canada evolving into the “51st state”, a scenario prompted by recent headlines, tariff threats, and provocative rhetoric from American and Canadian leadership. This scenario was analyzed using the CLA framework across multiple dimensions:

Litany

At the most visible level, the scenario was framed by contemporary headlines and political rhetoric that increasingly depicted Canada as vulnerable to external influences (Bonaparte, 2025; Pereira, 2025). Media narratives highlighted tariff disputes, provocative remarks by political figures, and economic signals suggesting a loss of traditional independence. Participants noted a growing public anxiety reflected in surveys and social media sentiment that Canada’s distinct identity was under threat. The litany thus captured a sense of urgency and apprehension, with fears ranging from cultural dilution to economic dependency, setting the stage for deeper inquiry.

Systems

In examining the institutional dimensions, teams considered the profound structural changes required if Canada were to merge more closely with the United States. The discussion explored the potential reconfiguration of governmental systems such as centralized fiscal policies, unified defense and trade regulations, and the harmonization of legal frameworks. Participants debated whether such integration could streamline decision-making or, conversely, undermine established regional governance traditions. Critical questions were raised about the resilience of Canada’s current federal structure, the role of provincial autonomy, and how existing public institutions would adapt to a more centralized, state-like model. This analysis also probed into the potential impacts on public services, social welfare policies, and Indigenous rights, suggesting that the transformation could lead to efficiencies and contentious conflicts over resource allocation and policy control.

Worldviews

On a deeper level, the group interrogated Canadians’ national identity and collective self-image. There was a marked tension between a long-held cultural pride in bilingualism, multiculturalism, and a distinctive social welfare ethos versus the pragmatism associated with closer economic and security ties with the United States. Participants explored how a shift toward becoming the “51st state” might compel Canadians to renegotiate their identity, balancing elements of independence with the potential benefits of economic stability and enhanced security cooperation. This discussion also extended to international perceptions, with participants considering how global alliances and geopolitical alignments might be reshaped. The challenge was envisioning a future where Canadian values could be preserved or reimagined within a framework that is simultaneously more integrated with American systems.

Metaphors

Metaphors were crucial in crystallizing this transformation’s emotional and ideological stakes. Initially, the “51st state” label evoked images of loss of autonomy, uniqueness, and self-determination. However, as discussions deepened, alternative metaphors emerged. Some groups proposed the metaphor “merging streams,” suggesting a natural confluence of two powerful rivers that, while distinct in origin, create a new, dynamic flow together. Others used “dual identity” to capture the tension between retaining a unique cultural heritage and adopting a pragmatic stance toward integration. These metaphors served as rhetorical devices and as frameworks for imagining hybrid systems where Canadian distinctiveness might coexist with or even be strengthened by greater alignment with American institutional practices.

Captures of breakout group work on Metaphors. Image by Eva Oloumi

Role-Playing and Stakeholder Perspectives

Participants engaged in role-playing exercises (Inayatullah, 2013, 2017) to enrich the analysis that assigned them various stakeholder roles, from government officials and business leaders to ordinary citizens and Indigenous representatives. These simulations revealed divergent priorities: while some emphasized the potential for economic growth and enhanced security, others expressed deep concerns about cultural erosion and the loss of local governance. The role-playing exercise highlighted that any move toward integration would require negotiated compromises and the development of new institutional mechanisms to safeguard core values while accommodating systemic change.

Policy Implications and Strategic Questions

The analysis led to developing the following strategic questions and policy proposals. Participants considered:

1. How could Canada’s robust social welfare systems be preserved under a new federal framework?
2. What constitutional safeguards might be necessary to protect minority rights and Indigenous sovereignty?
3. Could a reimagined “dual governance” model allow for both centralized coordination and regional autonomy?
4. How might economic policies be redesigned to ensure that integration does not come at the expense of local innovation or cultural expression?

By delving into these multiple layers, the exercise illuminated the risks associated with the “51st state” scenario and opened possibilities for creative policy innovation. The detailed exploration provided a blueprint for understanding the challenges and potential opportunities of such a profound geopolitical shift.

The Sarkar Game

The final segment of the day featured the Sarkar Game (Inayatullah, 2013, 2017), a role-playing simulation originally developed to uncover hidden dynamics in governance. In this exercise, participants assumed roles such as Workers, Warriors, Intellectuals, Capitalists, and Sadvipras. Each group’s interactions illustrated the complex interplay of power, resources, and cultural narratives. For example:

1. Warriors and Workers: The warriors’ attempts to coerce cooperation from the workers highlighted the tension between protective authority and grassroots resistance.
2. Intellectuals and Capitalists: The dynamics between these groups revealed how access to resources and ideas can shape public discourse and influence decision-making.
3. Sadvipras’ Role: By introducing cultural symbolism and myth-making elements, the Sadvipras underscored the potential for alternative narratives to redefine societal values.

Graphic recording and capture of Sarkar Game report out discussion by Eva Oloumi

Findings and Discussion

Outcomes from the CLA Exercises

The application of the CLA framework to contemporary Canadian challenges yielded several key insights:

1. as the Economic Transformation: Participants articulated a vision where economic systems evolve from a profit-centric model to one emphasizing intergenerational equity and well-being. The shift from “hustle culture” to “mushroom economics” exemplified this narrative transformation.
2. Housing as a Public Good: The exercise on the housing crisis fostered consensus on the need for systemic reforms that reframe housing as a collective right, rather than a private commodity.
3. Reimagining Values: The reframing of fragmented Canadian values led to proposals for rebuilding community trust through dialogue and inclusive governance.
4. Health System Innovation: The proposed transformation of the healthcare system underscored a movement from rigid, top-down models to adaptive, patient-centered care facilitated by technology.

Insights from the Canada 51st State Scenario

In exploring the hypothetical scenario of Canada becoming the “51st state,” participants demonstrated how the CLA framework could be used to unpack complex geopolitical and cultural issues. The analysis spanned multiple layers from immediate, surface-level reactions to deep-seated shifts in worldviews and metaphors revealing the potential for both resistance and transformation in the face of external pressures (Bonaparte, 2025; Pereira, 2025).

Dynamics Revealed through the Sarkar Game

Participant group photo of Sarkar Game, Image by Simon Perez

The Sarkar Game provided a microcosm of societal power dynamics. Key observations included:

1. Intergroup Tensions: Conflicts between warriors and workers underscored challenges in achieving collective solidarity.
2. Resource Control and Narrative Authority: The interplay between capitalists and intellectuals illustrated the struggle for influence over public discourse.
3. Emergence of Alternative Narratives: The role of Sadvipras, who introduced elements of art and culture, highlighted the capacity of alternative narratives to disrupt traditional power structures and foster creative reimaginations of society (Inayatullah, 2013; “Searching for the Sadvipra,” 2012).

The masterclass demonstrated that CLA is a potent methodology for deconstructing complex societal issues and envisioning transformative futures. By engaging with multiple layers of analysis, participants were able to move beyond surface-level problem identification to address deeper systemic, cultural, and metaphorical dimensions (Inayatullah, 2015). The dual application of CLA both in analyzing contemporary issues and in the provocative exercise of reimagining Canada’s national identity underscores its versatility. The role-playing aspect of the Sarkar Game further enriched the dialogue, offering practical insights into how hidden power dynamics can be brought to light and challenged.

Conclusion

The Ottawa masterclass on Causal Layered Analysis showcased the transformative potential of futures studies methodologies when applied to contemporary challenges. Through rigorous analysis of Canadian societal issues and immersive role-playing exercises, participants were able to uncover alternative narratives and propose innovative strategies for change, demonstrating how the CLA uncovers driving narratives and metaphors that shape decisions. Participants noted that the CLA made tensions between competing narratives visible, revealing how policy can be framed to either persuade or attenuate action and shape public perception, empowering participants to see themselves as potential architects in shaping new possibilities. Future research might explore the integration of CLA with other participatory methods, further refining its application in diverse socio-political contexts and enhancing its role as a catalyst for the systemic transformation of Canadian Policy.

References

 

Ahmed, F. (2020). Making the transition: Creating a forest of foresight. An interview with the UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies. Sohail Inayatullah. Journal of Futures Studies.

August, M. (2022). The financialization of housing in Canada. Canadian Human Rights Commission.

Bonaparte, Y. (2025). Canada: The 51 st State -Eh or Nay? https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5092033

Chimal, A. (2024, July 3). Artificial intelligence, water futures, and a living constitution. Journal of Futures Studies. https://jfsdigital.org/2024/07/03/artificial-intelligence-water-futures-and-a-living-constitution/

Farhan, R. (2024). Permanent renters and the Canadian dream. Policy Futures Canada.

Gáspár, T., Goux-Baudiment, F., & Hayward, P. (2025). Navigating the great transition – Lessons from gaming our futures. Journal of Futures Studies.

Inayatullah, S. (2013). Six pillars and the Sarkar Game. Journal of Futures Studies, 18(1), 1–12.

Inayatullah, S. (2015). What works: Case studies in the practice of foresight.

Inayatullah, S. (2022). Causal layered analysis: Theory, conceptual framework and method. In CLA 3.0Thirty years of transformative research. Tamkang University Press.

Inayatullah, S. (2017). (2017). Gaming, ways of knowing, and futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(2). https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2017.22(2).E101

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2002). BIBLIOGRAPHY. In Understanding Sarkar (pp. 344–353). BRILL.

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991

Martin, G. (2023, December 11). An Englishman’s home is his castle – meaning & origin of the phrase. Phrase Finder. https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/an-englishmans-home-is-his-castle.html

Pereira, I. (2025, March 13). Trump keeps talking about making Canada the 51st state. Is he serious? ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-talking-making-canada-51st-state/story?id=119767909

Searching for the sadvipra. (2012, November 5). Prout Globe. https://proutglobe.org/2012/11/13084/

Troubling diagnosis: Comparing Canada’s healthcare with international peers. (2025, January 14). C.D. Howe Institute. https://cdhowe.org/publication/troubling-diagnosis-comparing-canadas-healthcare-with-international-peers/.

Weissert, W. (2025, February 13). Trump’s remarks on Canada becoming the 51st state raise a lot of questions. The Detroit News. https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/13/trumps-remarks-on-canada-becoming-the-51st-state-raise-a-lot-of-questions/78529320007/

Wilson, D. E., & Inayatullah, S. (2024). Embodied CLA: The role of polyvagal theory in futures methodology – A conversation with Sohail Inayatullah and Debra Em Wilson. Journal of Futures Studies, 29(1), 87–97.

Wright, D. (2025, March 10). Canadians don’t want to be the 51st state – and Americans don’t really want us. Https://Policyoptions.Irpp.Org/Magazines/March-2025/Fifty-First-State/.