by Ozioma Egwuonwu, Marimar López & Makēda Gershenson
Introduction
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) offers a distinctive futures-oriented approach that penetrates multiple layers of reality—from surface events to deep cultural myths—to reveal hidden assumptions and unlock transformative possibilities. Central to CLA’s power is its engagement with metaphor, which functions as a foundational architecture shaping how individuals, organizations, and societies interpret their worlds and envision change.
- On May 3, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal, twenty-five individuals with diverse experiences and interests gathered for an intensive masterclass on Causal Layered Analysis. Unlike conventional futures workshops centered on slideshow presentations, this learning journey was designed as an interactive, experiential immersion into futures thinking and the power of strategic transformation. Facilitated by Sohail Inayatullah with Ivana Milojević and Ozioma Egwuonwu, the day repeatedly underscored metaphor as a key transformative shift in the CLA process.
Overview
After introducing Visionary Futuremaking, Egwuonwu led an intentional somatic practice. Without screens, participants turned inward. The opening question–“What possibilities do we desire to bring forth?”–invited expansive thinking. Beginning with breath, facilitators cultivated emotional safety for co-regulation by activating the parasympathetic nervous system. This somatic approach, aligned with trauma-informed pedagogy and polyvagal theory (Porges, 2011; van der Kolk, 2014), set the frame and foundation for a CLA Masterclass that would be relational and embodied.
Following a brief history of CLA, participants co-created metaphors that reimagined current challenges as alternative futures. As Inayatullah (2004) and Lakoff & Johnson (1980) suggest, changing the story can change the system.
Storytelling, both empirical and somatic, was interwoven as a pedagogical technique. Sohail modelled interoception–tuning into sensations within the body–through a personal story, demonstrating how internal cues can give rise to new metaphors (van der Kolk, 2014). Milojević then introduced conflict transformation, offering historical and lived case studies, followed by collaboration, which encouraged ambiguity tolerance and the exploration of liminality.
In the CLA Game, participants embodied the four CLA layers—litany, system, worldview, and myth—alongside a constellation of stakeholders representing unique values. The CLA game transformed theory into an experiential intervention. Participants rehearsed possible futures, cultivating empathy and insight through a low-stakes, high-impact space of co-creation.
The final exercise, the Inner CLA process, used a futures-oriented guided visualization and journaling contemplative practice to uncover personal myths and worldview assumptions.
Imagination, often undermined in traditional learning environments, was central to this post-formal learning environment (Freire, 1970; Gidley, 2016; Immordino-Yang & Damasio, 2007), where knowledge emerged dialogically through story, metaphor, and embodied inquiry.
Delving deeper into the depths of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
CLA is a futures methodology that explores issues across four interrelated layers to reveal multiple dimensions shaping present realities and future possibilities (Inayatullah, 1998). The four levels/layers of CLA are: the litany, social/systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor (Inayatullah, 2014). The litany is visible, tangible, quantifiable data, often perceived as newspaper headlines. Solutions at the litany level tend to entail short-term approaches. The second layer is the systemic causes. They are the “why” behind the litany, in the shape of academic analysis (e.g., policies, economics, institutions). Solutions at the systemic layer tend to focus on integrated approaches. The third layer is the Worldview. Here is where cultural frames are often used to make sense of the system (e.g., morals, values, ideologies, philosophies). The system is constituted from a multiplicity of worldviews. Issues/Problems at the worldviews level tend to require rethinking, transforming, and shifting paradigms. The last layer of Causal Layered Analysis is the myth/metaphor layer. The collective unconscious stories that need to be transformed for new solutions to emerge. Solutions at the myth/metaphor level focus on the creation of alternative stories (Inayatullah, 1998).
*Image Credit: Diana Stafie (Parfeni) and Sohail Inayatullah
CLA invites us to examine the hidden architectures shaping why certain futures feel inevitable—and others unimaginable. Its utility lies not so much in predicting the future as in creating transformative spaces for the analysis and the creation of alternative futures. The exploration of issues and concerns beyond conventional framings. Metaphor is one of the core ways CLA facilitates delving into the deeper depths of possible futures.
CLA and the Power of Metaphor Shifts
Metaphors are pivotal leverage points for sparking new perspectives and transformative change. In their seminal book Metaphors We Live By, George Lakoff and Mark Johnson (1992) posit that conceptual systems govern our everyday reality and are inherently metaphorical. According to their contemporary theory of metaphor, metaphors are far more than rhetorical flourishes. Metaphors are deep cognitive structures that organize how we think, perceive, and act. For example, we understand arguments through the metaphor of war: we attack positions, defend claims, and win-or-lose debates (Lakoff and Johnson, 1992).
Metaphors are the primary means through which we understand abstract concepts and enact abstract reasoning. For Lakoff and Johnson, metaphors do not simply reflect reality; they actively construct it, because they define what we can imagine and the actions we consider possible within any conceptual frame. Metaphors shape the way we engage in discourse precisely because they are fundamental to our “understanding of experience” and what we do with that understanding.
Lakoff and Johnson (1992) assert that because metaphors structure our conceptual systems, they can “be a guide for future action.” Inayatullah builds directly upon this understanding of metaphor’s power to construct reality by positioning myth/metaphor as the foundation layer of CLA, and treating the analysis of myth as the level of inquiry with the most transformative potential (Inayatullah, 2017). To address the surface-level issues (the litany) or even institutional structures (the system layer) without transforming the metaphorical foundation, keeps the current underlying conceptual systems intact, making significant change difficult, if not impossible. Through CLA, underlying metaphors are identified and transformed to facilitate meaningful change.
CLA in Practice: Masterclass Metaphor Shifts
CLA is intentionally deliberate with its emphasis on metaphor before strategy. For Inayatullah and Milojević, “if people wish to create new stories (or visions) of the future, they first need to understand their existing stories and the metaphors about themselves and the future, as well as people and organizations they seek to engage” (Inayatullah and Milojević, 2015).
*Image Credit: Yatri Niehaus
During the masterclass, participants engage in this exploration through action learning. Each group selects issues and is given a brief span of time to experiment with rapidly deploying CLA. As the groups share the litany, system, worldview, and transformation metaphor, Inayatullah probes, refines, and invites the room to strengthen weak metaphors. Does that hold? Does it resonate? What’s a better metaphor? Better for who(m)? In what context? In what time span? This approach allows participants to not only uncover challenges within a system, but also to imagine new functions, identities, and possible futures.
What follows is a curated selection of metaphor shifts that emerged through the CLA process in the areas of organizational culture, industry creativity, relational dynamics and self-conception. The examples show how metaphor can operate at different scales with different stakes, each group’s issue offering a window into different urgencies, illustrating how metaphor can unlock strategy and agency and imagination.
Shifting Organizational Culture: From Dormant Volcano to Emerging Butterfly
One group selected Zeiss, a leading German optics and imaging firm employing one of the participants, to investigate how metaphor shapes the identity of a real-world corporation. The CLA revealed how legacy narratives can become cultural constraints that, once reimagined, might enable new possibilities and perspectives for the future.
Culture doesn’t live in slide decks or value posters. It lives in the metaphors that people carry: unspoken and embedded in language, and is reflected in the way people relate to each other. Whether an organization sees itself as a “family,” a “machine,” or a unit operating in a “battlefield,” each metaphor scripts behavior, quietly choreographing power dynamics and operational routines.
*Image Credit: Yatri Niehaus
Today, Zeiss sits at an inflection point. The company operates from a place of dominance, its market share closely resembling a monopoly. It has deep roots in the field and is long recognized for its technical precision and a narrative of prestige that spans multiple generations.
As seen in Figure 1, the litany is clear: limited competition and a heavy reliance on internal expertise and proprietary control. Systemically, that legacy creates insularity: technology and expertise are applied inward, not across ecosystems.
The worldview underpinning this model is deeply rooted in endurance: “We were here yesterday. We will be here tomorrow.” The metaphor of a “sleeping titan made of stone,” suggests a once-revered entity, now subdued, and seemingly unable to adapt. The metaphor of a “dormant volcano” suggests latent power and potential ready to emerge and shape a new era.
Figure 1
Future of Zeiss
That shift arrives in the future vision. By 2045, Zeiss isn’t just surviving, it’s morphing. The metaphor shifts to a “chrysalis becoming a butterfly.” Through this identity reorientation, Zeiss unlocks the conditions for foundational organization transformation: becoming radically open to transformation by its nature. By reimagining the metaphor, participants were able to identify the cascading effect on the systemic, worldview, and litany layers. Zeiss’ revised worldview orients toward agility and experimentation, breaking free from inherited constraints on innovation. On the systemic level, open-source systemic thinking replaces proprietary silos. Partnerships with competitors are welcomed as opportunities, not threats. Strategy becomes regenerative rather than extractive. The litany also shifts to one of a shared place in something larger: an essential collaborator in the thriving ecosystem of the European Silicon Valley.
Shifting Industry Creativity: From Invisible Token to Rainbow Crystal
Another group, which included a film director living in Berlin, examined the German film industry to explore the intersection of representation, creativity, and systemic bias. Today, the narrative is as familiar as it is exhausting: Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) individuals remain underrepresented. On screen, behind the camera, and in decision-making roles–structural exclusion is encoded and perpetuated throughout the industry. As seen in Figure 2, the litany is hard to ignore: fewer stable jobs, fewer lead roles, fewer chances to shape the lens. But beneath the surface, the system churns with the usual suspects: biased casting processes, funding inequity, token hires, and market-driven “diversity” models that prioritize appearance over agency. The prevailing worldview: inclusion only if it sells. Racial difference is not embraced, but managed. The myth? The “invisible token“: present but not powerful, seen but not heard, included but never at the center.
The CLA is imagined in two stages: a crack forms in the near future in the year 2035, and a more dramatic shift in the narrative occurs in 2045. In 2035, the metaphor’s evolution starts with something more dynamic, malleable, modular, and endlessly generative: “Play-Doh” and “Lego” reframe the renewably generative force of BIPOC creative power, no longer confined to pre-cast roles but rather shaping, remixing, and constructing new narratives on their own terms. The worldview is about claiming the space that should’ve been shared all along. The system begins to self-correct: recruitment pipelines, affirmative policies, and a cultural shift that doesn’t just allow BIPOC creators into the room: it asks what stories they’ve been waiting to tell. The film industry begins to rewire itself; this is no longer only about fitting in. The litany reflects the shift, as we see the rise of professorships in Black filmmaking at major German universities.
Figure 2
Racial Representation in The German Film Industry
By 2045, the narrative has flipped entirely. The metaphor is now a “rainbow crystal”: a symbol for layered brilliance, intersectional depth, and light refracted through many angles, all valid, all seen. The worldview has shifted from inclusion to a world of all stories, where multiplicity isn’t a problem to solve, but a gift to center. The system supports it at every level: early funding, inclusive talent pipelines, predictive support structures, and equitable representation across every role. German cinema enjoys global acclaim not in spite of its diversity, but because of it.
This CLA doesn’t just reflect a more inclusive film industry: it tells the story of a cultural reframing. From structural inequities perpetuated by metaphors of invisibility to a structural evolution and collective reorientation. From margin to mythmaker.
Shifting Relational Dynamics: From Bubbleocracy to Mycelium Network
A third group turned to a reflection of the social domain, analyzing the rise of political polarization and disconnection.
The present litany is marked by heavy political polarization and disconnection: isolation in public discourse, retreat into social bubbles, and a widespread breakdown of mutual trust, as seen in Figure 3. Beneath that surface, the system churns with structural noise of post-truth narratives, materialism, mental health strain, and the ever-fracturing attention economy. The worldview holding all this together is tribal, individualistic, and defensive. We are alone, and we are against each other. The metaphor is “bubbleocracy,” a world in which people float in sealed spheres of their own worldviews, trapped in the illusion of proximity. We scroll past each other, insulated by algorithms and anxiety, mistaking reaction for relationship.
Figure 3
Political Polarization and Relational Dynamics
A different future begins to take root when we imagine something more organic. The year is 2040. The metaphor for social dynamics transforms: now, a “mycelium network.” This is a living system where connection happens underground, silently, powerfully. Every node is linked. Every part nourishes the whole. Disagreement is not disruption but data. The health of the forest is in the resilience of its unseen roots. The worldview becomes rooted in interdependence. We are in this together. Collaboration replaces competition. Systems shift to promote public dialogue and design for discomfort. Debate becomes a common practice for collective decision-making rather than a threat. Instead of fragmentation, the litany reveals moments of cooperation. People find safety not by retreating, but by entering respectful spaces of shared discourse. Everyone has a seat at the table, not because they agree, but because they are human.
Shifting Self-Conception through Metaphor
Inner CLA is the application of the four layers to a personal conflict. CLA applied to the inner world of meanings explores the current stories we tell ourselves and seeks to empower individuals to create new narratives so they may represent their desired futures more effectively.
Inner CLA invites participants to explore the multi-layered narratives, worldviews, systemic influences, and metaphors shaping their internal conflicts, identity and agency. Conflict often isn’t “between people.” It’s between the many “selves” within us—The Dutiful Daughter, The Burnt-Out Visionary, The Ghost of Being Six. Each self has a worldview. A system. A story. This process invites futures studies into the terrain of self-awareness, embodiment, and ideally a moment of inner reconciliation.
*Image Credit: Yatri Niehaus
From Fragmented to Fluid
One of the most radical turns of the day came when participants turned the lens inward.
During the masterclass, one participant, Pedro Rocha was able to use the Inner CLA process to reframe personal and professional challenges. What follows is a CLA reframe in the form of a metaphor shift from fragmentation towards fluidity.
Figure 4
Self Conceptions Inner CLA
Pedro expressed that he felt caught in unpredictable currents—torn between tides of expectation, craving stillness while paddling furiously to stay afloat. The Inner CLA process through the guidance of Sohail helps him surface not just what he is feeling—but what story he’s telling himself about what ought to be done. Because sometimes the issue isn’t the weight—it’s the metaphor we’re lifting it with. A core transformative step in the Inner CLA process occurs when limiting metaphors are reframed into more empowering ones.
Findings
Inayatullah (1998) affirms that, “from a civilizational perspective, it is crucial to explore the guiding metaphors and myths we use to envision the future” (p. 819). This masterclass demonstrated that Causal Layered Analysis is not solely an analytic framework. Within the confines of a masterclass, it is a transformative experience that leverages the full power of metaphor to reframe perspectives on possible futures.
- Through the CLA masterclass, in Lisbon, participants learned that by reframing the metaphor, you can powerfully impact what presents itself as possible. Participants learned how issues are shaped by deeper layers that surface, and how shifting these layers transforms what we can imagine and how we act together.
- Through the application of CLA towards organizational culture, participants learned that metaphor is strategy. Reframing an organization’s cultural perspective results in shifts in behavior, risk tolerance, and leadership styles.
- Through the application of CLA towards industry shifts, participants learned that systemic change cannot happen without cultural alignment. CLA enables the story change to be made visible and shareable.
- Through the application of CLA for relational conflict transformation, participants learned that by deliberately reframing conflict, they can catalyze shifts from adversarial perspectives to relational possibilities.
- Through Inner CLA, participants learned that by surfacing internal tensions we can foster personal resilience.
CLA’s power lies in its capacity to enable the exploration of surface hidden assumptions and invite the creation of new narrative architectures for transformation. Metaphor operates at the deepest layer of Causal Layered Analysis. Reframing metaphors can alter what strategies are thinkable and what futures become actionable, shaping our collective realities.
Conclusion
This reflective analysis of a Causal Layered Analysis masterclass further supports that CLA is both a powerful analytic framework and an experiential methodology capable of transforming how futures can be perceived then re-engaged through metaphorical shifts. CLA’s power lies in its capacity to integrate layered analysis with imaginative shifts in meaning—offering a foundation for transformation that is simultaneously cognitive and emotional. At a personal level, CLA enables inner narrative reconciliation; in organizations, it supports rewriting culture; at a societal scale, it can nurture the co-authoring of collective narratives of possibility.
If CLA provides a robust method for uncovering hidden assumptions while generatively reimagining systems from within, the CLA masterclass offers a replicable model for cultivating the experiential futures literacy engagement essential for scholars and practitioners committed to creating transformative foundations for desired futures.
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