by Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, IIUM and Professor, Tamkang University.
Workforce futures is where a compelling vision often meets the brutal reality of the used future. A used future is an institutional practice that is no longer aligned with a vision or with changing realities. It becomes a weight that prevents the realisation of a new vision and its associated adaptation strategies.
This essay applies futures methods, particularly Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and scenario planning, to workforce futures, with a particular focus on libraries. It examines workforce futures across three domains: libraries, policing and health. The analysis suggests that neither the no-change nor the marginal-change option is sufficient. Deeper shifts in worldview and narrative are needed. Librarians cannot transform if they remain attached to the narrative of the keeper of the collection. Police organisations cannot become agile while clinging to seniority based primarily on years of service. Healthcare cannot become flexible while its workforce feels trapped on a one-way bus. Meaningful progress in all three domains requires a new story; otherwise, the weight of the past will continue to undermine innovation.
While visions and stories often lead the way, human resources (HR) departments tend to be rules-based, helping to ensure equity and fairness. They are often slower to change than the rest of an organisation and, for many, can act as a drag on innovation. For others, however, this rules-based approach ensures that rules are applied uniformly and that no individual gains an unfair advantage. Workforce futures have gained greater traction as new technologies and an ageing society challenge established ways of working. Personalisation, flexibility and portfolio careers have become increasingly important.
To help navigate the gap between the emerging future and the present (and the past), I use Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). It is a methodology consisting of four layers (Inayatullah and Milojević, 2015; Inayatullah, Mercer, Milojević and Sweeney, 2022):
- The Litany: the day-to-day presentation of an issue, including official data and headlines;
- The System: the rules, regulations and historical factors that help explain the causes behind the litany;
- The Worldview: the deeper philosophical positions and cultural assumptions that have created the litany. These are often in tension within organisations—for example, between workers and management, and among groups across the broader system; and
- The Myth and Metaphor: the underlying views of reality and deep stories or narratives that inform our worldviews, systems and litany.
Image by ChatGPT. Prompts by the author.
In the CLA process, we deconstruct an issue across all four layers and then move to reconstruction, creating a preferred future or a range of alternative scenarios. CLA can be used as a standalone method or alongside other methods, such as emerging issues analysis, trend analysis and scenario planning.
CLA Applied to Libraries
Although libraries continue to innovate nationally and globally, the past still weighs heavily. Using CLA, participants at a workshop in Australia more than a decade ago developed the following analysis of library futures. In their alternative future, measures of success shifted from the number of books loaned to the number of people using the library’s physical and virtual spaces. Systemic changes included moving beyond a focus on books, embracing new technologies and redesigning libraries to make full use of them. The worldview shifted from the librarian as expert to the librarian as a partner in co-creation with the community. Finally, the core story changed from the “keeper of the collection” to the “innovator in the gardens” (Inayatullah, 2015).
Image by ChatGPT. Prompts by the author.
However, this new narrative raises several questions. First, what happens to the workforce? Do we need a different type of librarian? If so, how should the educational curriculum be revised? These questions are central to workforce futures. To explore them, we first consider the use of CLA in other domains before returning to the deconstruction and reconstruction of the library.
Policing: from the ladder to the moving staircase
Over the past twenty years, I have conducted more than fifty workshops with international law-enforcement organisations on the futures of policing and crime. Familiar issues arise, including digital crime, emerging forms of crime such as biohacking and neuro-hacking, and innovations such as citizen forensics. Yet a blockage often appears when participants try to move from information about the future to the implementation of innovation.
In law enforcement, participants described this blockage through the metaphor of the ladder. Career progression and remuneration are often tied to years of service. Time served, rather than skills or the ability to adapt to a changing world, is treated as the primary criterion. Participants argued that although the ladder recognises experience and authority, it is no longer an effective way to attract the most relevant talent. They proposed the lift instead: it could move swiftly between levels, allowing people to enter at an appropriate point and leave when they chose. A career in policing would no longer have to mean a lifetime of service. This, they argued, would help law-enforcement organisations recruit younger people with skills suited to emerging forms of crime. What, then, of those who had served for many years? Some joked that they could spend their afternoons taking naps; others suggested that they could mentor younger colleagues in policing’s core values of inclusion, professionalism and integrity.
In a more recent workshop, policing leaders suggested that even the lift was an inadequate metaphor. Instead, they proposed the moving staircase familiar from the Harry Potter stories. Unlike a lift, which moves up and down through a fixed space, a moving staircase suggests agility, flexibility and multiple points of entry. Participants considered this especially important because many younger recruits no longer view law enforcement as a lifelong career, but as one of several possible professional paths. The metaphor also challenged Commissioners to recognise that workforce models suited to their own era may no longer make sense. Wellbeing, portfolio careers and the ability to use AI skilfully and flexibly were considered increasingly important.
A group at the Australia Institute of Police Management considered how to attract younger talent. They described the shift as one from “a life career and life sentence” to “a career and lifestyle opportunity.” The worldview needed to move from “policing is essential but not for me” to “policing is skilled, and it is for me.” The new system needs to ensure the following:
- Easy entry and exit
- Pathways at all levels of policing
- Interchangeable
- Opportunities for professional roles across the public and private sectors
The new litany would shift from “We need to attract the next generation” to “We attract the next generation.” By 2030, the latter would be the reality rather than simply an aspiration.
Image by ChatGPT. Prompts by the author.
Other groups go further, arguing for global policing in which officers would have professional mobility across police forces worldwide. This would amount to the creation of a world police force—an “Earthpol.”
Can we imagine such a future for other domains?
The next section applies CLA to workforce futures in health.
Health: from the bus to the staircase
In a series of workshops, health providers and policy advisers argued that the current workforce model also needed to change. They described it as a one-way bus, with everyone seated in rows and little room to maneuver or change direction quickly. The problems they identified included limited movement between roles, inflexible full-time rules, insufficient scholarships and traineeships, difficulty developing exceptional (“unicorn”) staff into leaders, limited skills rotation and high vacancy rates.
Where policing participants questioned the ladder, health officials proposed a staircase as a more useful narrative for workforce development. Their staircase had eight steps, beginning with:
- Consult and collaborate with staff to create a new metaphor for the workforce.
- Ensure there is “no wrong door” – support people in their alternative career pathways.
- Fund scholarships and cadet training.
- Ensure that work roles are flexible and responsive to the expectations of the current generation.
- Create a unified Department of Health workforce rather than maintaining separate rules and regimes.
- Create a minimum skill set for leaders.
- Establish fluidity between systems; and
- Make agile skills central in recruiting.
Image by ChatGPT. Prompts by the author.
The generational worldview
The examples above might imply a shared view of the workforce, but that assumption can and should be challenged. Debbie Terranova (2006) argued that the Matures, Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y understood the future of work differently. The Matures wanted to retire quietly and with minimal disruption; they did not want to be retrained in changing technologies. Their core narrative was “I am out of here soon.” The Baby Boomers were eager to take the lead, embodying a “Cool Runnings” attitude. Generation X worried about losing agency and being unable to progress up the management ladder: “How will we cope?” Finally, Generation Y saw opportunity: “Opportunity knocks.” They anticipated being able to lead as Generation X moved aside and Baby Boomers retired.
Image by ChatGPT. Prompts by the author.
Terranova concluded that the exercise broadened discussion about workforce ageing and shifted attention from a predominantly negative framing towards a more positive one. Participants recognised that ageing meant different things to different generations. The issue was no longer limited to managing the retirement of older workers; it also involved identifying the benefits and opportunities available to each generation (Terranova, 2006). Policymakers therefore needed to move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach and understand how different generations define success.
Indigenous workforce futures
In a two-day workshop on Indigenous health workforce futures, participants used CLA and scenario planning to move beyond strategic questions—such as how many Indigenous nurses would be needed in the future—towards transformational possibilities, including the difference that visible Aboriginal leadership could make (Milojević and Inayatullah, 2018). Trend analysis highlighted the significant disruption that technology and automation could bring to healthcare work, challenging traditional employment models over time. Yet participants reframed this not as a story of threat but as a powerful counternarrative. They emphasised Aboriginal peoples’ adaptability and resilience, developed over tens of thousands of years, as vital strengths for navigating a volatile future. The question then became how to support and activate those strengths.
This led to a focus on practical pathways. Participants called for new partnerships and education that anticipates tomorrow’s jobs, moving beyond narrow specialisation towards a more generalised skill set. They also saw potential for technologies such as health apps to build and support community partnerships. However, they emphasised that technology must never replace the human touch. Care, community and deep connections to Country were fundamental. This points to the need for systems—from healthcare to employment—to be person-centred and designed within their ecological and cultural contexts, with Aboriginal people leading their own projects.
The discussion also addressed the bigger picture. Participants considered the demographic reality of a much younger population, which offers a major opportunity but also creates risks if pathways to meaningful work are not established. This calls for a long-term, generational perspective: making decisions today for a future we may not live to see. The discussion pointed to the need for a shift in power. True adaptation, participants argued, requires not only changes to workforce strategies but also changes to governance and meaningful political representation. The deepest conclusion concerned the power of narrative. The critical shift is from adopting an external story to telling one’s own story. As participants argued, changing the narrative changes what is possible.
Identity shift
Across these sectors—libraries, policing and health, including Indigenous health workforce futures—a clear pattern emerges. Long-term workforce transformation cannot be achieved by responding only to daily problems or making minor adjustments to existing rules. It requires change at the deeper levels of worldview and metaphor. Police organisations cannot become agile while clinging to the rigid rungs of the ladder. Healthcare cannot become flexible while its workforce remains trapped on a one-way bus. Libraries cannot become knowledge creators while defined solely as keepers of collections. Meaningful progress requires a new story.
This brings us back to the library. At a crossroads, facing an ageing workforce, the rise of AI and the arrival of Generations Z and Alpha, libraries may be tempted to address each issue separately: a new AI policy, a recruitment strategy for Generation Z and a retirement plan for Baby Boomers. Such an approach, however, overlooks the deeper narrative that holds the old world in place.
Workshop participants argued that the “keeper of the collection”—a role born of a stable, print-centric world—had become a used future. It anchored the library in a worldview of expertise as gatekeeping and in a system measured by the circulation of physical objects. They suggested that the way forward was to embrace a new story: the “innovator in the gardens.”
Adopting this narrative sets off a cascade of change across the other layers. The worldview must shift from the solitary expert to the collaborative facilitator. Systems must be redesigned to support experimentation, digital creation and community partnerships, with metrics that value engagement and learning over simple transactions. The litany of challenges—from AI integration to intergenerational collaboration—can then begin to give way to opportunities, shifting the system from a deficit-based to an asset-based approach.
The narrative reflects a change in identity. This shift requires moving beyond the comfort of a familiar, albeit increasingly obsolete, role and stepping into the dynamic, uncertain but more vital role of cultivating knowledge, community and innovation. The future is not a collection to be managed, but a garden to be grown together.
The future workforce
For libraries, this shift in identity has direct implications for workforce roles and skills. The skill set of a “keeper”—cataloguing, archival management and information retrieval—remains valuable but becomes less central. The “innovator” needs a different set of capabilities. Librarians must become community organisers skilled in outreach and engagement; educators and facilitators able to design and run workshops on topics ranging from 3D printing and coding to local history; and partnership brokers who collaborate with local artists, start-ups, schools and social-service agencies. The role becomes less about managing books and more about managing projects, people and possibilities. Recruitment, professional development and training must therefore be reoriented towards these entrepreneurial and socially focused competencies.
The measures of success would also change. A “keeper” is assessed through circulation figures, collection size and visitor numbers. These metrics are inadequate for an “innovator.” A garden’s success is not measured by the number of seeds stored in a vault, but by the vitality of the life it sustains. Metrics for the library workforce might therefore include the number of community partnerships formed, the skills people acquire in workshops, the business plans developed in co-working spaces and the diversity of groups participating in library programmes. This shifts how the workforce demonstrates its value and justifies its budget: from a quantitative account of assets to a qualitative account of impact and community wellbeing.
This transformation also requires a clearer sense of purpose and identity. In recent work with a national government, policymakers were grappling with disinformation, misinformation and mal-information. They concluded that a new narrative was needed: a shift from being lost in the “killer weeds”—a world in which dis-, mis- and ma-linformation threaten democracy—to “creating the new knowledge gardens.” Simply arguing with conspiracy theorists, organised crime groups and hostile nation-states, they argued, could reinforce information dis-integrity. What was needed was to create new spaces for deep trust.
Who might be best placed to cultivate these spaces? Perhaps the answer returns us to librarians, who become truth-tellers. Their role is to ensure that the knowledge gardens are not poisoned and that innovation is not constrained or captured by large technology platforms. In this way, they help safeguard the integrity of the future.
Image by Google Notebook. Prompts by the author.
Conclusion
To safeguard the integrity of the system and create new futures for policing and health, we need to change how we define, treat, measure, educate and understand the workforce. HR systems must retain their commitment to fairness and equity while responding to demands for personalisation, recognising generational differences in how people understand the present and future, and addressing the politics of power. At the metaphorical level, the goal is not to move from red tape to no tape, but to create “green tape”: systems that support and encourage innovation while actively addressing structural inequities. The comparison across the three domains is instructive. Libraries need to move from preserving collections to cultivating knowledge and community; policing needs to replace rigid, seniority-based ladders with more agile and permeable career pathways; and health needs to move beyond the one-way bus towards flexible routes for skills development and career movement. In each case, changing the metaphor helps make new workforce arrangements imaginable—and, ultimately, achievable.
References
Inayatullah, S. (2015). From knowledge keepers to knowledge creators. Public Library Quarterly, 34(4), 1–8.
Inayatullah, S., & Milojević, I. (Eds.). (2015). CLA 2.0: Transformative research and practice. Tamkang University Press.
Milojević, I., & Inayatullah, S. (2018). From skilling for new futures to empowering individuals and communities. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(4), 1–14.
Inayatullah, S., Mercer, R., Milojević, I., & Sweeney, J. A. (Eds.). (2022). CLA 3.0: Thirty years of transformative research and practice. Tamkang University Press.
Terranova, D. (2006). Fathoming the ageing workforce debate: Causal layered analysis in action. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(2), 49–62.
AI disclosure
AI was used to generate images, copyedit the manuscript, check spelling and review language flow.