Report
Christina Doyle1, Danielle Nadine Pierre2, Calvin Prowse3, Liz Koblyk4, Christine Elliott5, Karla Congson6, Sohail Inayatullah7, Dave Oliver8*
1Strategic Foresight Primary, Riser Strategies, Canada
2Graduate Research Assistant & Master of Design Candidate, Canada
3Professor, Seneca Polytechnic, Canada
4Principal, Vital Futures, Canada
5Research & Foresight Associate, eCampusOntario, Canada
6CEO & CTO, Agentiiv, Canada
7UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, IIUM. Professor, Tamkang University. Researcher, metafuture.org, metafutureschool.org, Australia
8Founder & Principal, Riser Strategies, Canada
Abstract
Through the lens of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), this research explores Canada’s possible futures, with attention to international relations, healthcare, education, and small business development. Dave Oliver and Christina Doyle of Riser Strategies, brought together Sohail Inayatullah, creator of CLA, and over 30 Canadian thinkers and leaders for a Masterclass, where attendees grappled with four distinct scenarios: status quo, incremental shifts, adaptive changes, and radical transformation. Our scenarios shed light on the deep-seated issues, worldviews, and cultural metaphors shaping Canada’s future trajectory. This paper contributes to the growing conversation on futures studies by showcasing the practical application of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) in a national context and its potential to spark meaningful policy discussions.
Keywords
Causal Layered Analysis, CLA, Canadian Futures, Futures Studies, Foresight
1. Introduction
In today’s climate of rapid technological advancement, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and escalating environmental challenges, the ability to anticipate and shape the future is no longer a luxury—it’s a strategic imperative for nations and organizations alike. This report presents the outcomes of a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Masterclass workshop facilitated by Sohail Inayatullah, David Oliver, and Christina Doyle on Monday, February 10, 2025, where participants explored potential futures for Canada through a layered approach to futures thinking.
The workshop aimed to enhance futures literacy and identify opportunities for collaboration among diverse interest holders. The methodology encouraged participants to move beyond surface-level trends and uncover the deeper systemic issues, worldviews, and cultural narratives that shape Canadian experiences. This approach reflects a growing emphasis in futures studies on the role of cultural analysis in understanding and influencing societal trajectories (Milojević & Inayatullah, 2015).
This report reviews the workshop’s core teachings, synthesizes the ideas discussed, and illustrates how the framework was applied in developing future scenarios. It concludes with reflections on potential implications for Canadian policy and society, contributing to the expanding field of applied futures by offering a case study in group facilitation and mindset transformation.
2. Understanding Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Approximately 30 Canadian thought-leaders came together through a shared desire to grow in their professional practices and sectors, including academia, government, business, and civil society. The commonality was their creativity and practice of strategic foresight, whether novice learners or experienced experts.
Strategic foresight is a creative discipline encompassing a range of generative techniques that help users establish a shared understanding of the forces shaping the future and aid decision-making amidst uncertainty and ambiguity (Stein & Goodman, 2007). Strategic foresight occurs in multiple phases where signal scanning, trend monitoring, scenario development, and back-casting are used to make the implicit explicit, generate new ideas, and identify mental models that influence individuals’ and groups’ preparedness for the future.
Causal Layered Analysis is a research theory and method that seeks to integrate empirical, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of information gathering and sensemaking. This method surfaces the meanings that individuals give to forecasts about the future, the critical assumptions used, as well as the subsequent actions and interventions that might be valued. To be sure, the power of the method is in its ability to expose and express core archetypes and worldviews that individuals and groups use to make decisions. CLA has been used successfully with national governments, corporations, international think-tanks, communities, and cities around the globe (Inayatullah, 2009). As a method, CLA focuses on layers, loops, and iterations of analysis. It opens space for groups to engage in constitutive discourses that can then be shaped into scenarios. As a learning system, the CLA user’s challenge lies in conducting research and integrating praxis up and down four layers of analysis to ensure that different ways of knowing and interpreting reality are included. Ideologies and epistemes make up the deeper layers of CLA, which support the interpretation (and potential reconstruction) of more visible layers of experience.
Inayatullah highlights how metaphors shape our understanding and the possibilities we perceive, noting, “Change the imagination, and you change the veil through which we see the world.” This underscores the transformative potential of working at the deepest levels of analysis. The multi-layered framework can be recorded and represented in a simple table or represented by a visual metaphor. Often seen as an iceberg analysis, the visual metaphor should be adapted to be culturally relevant to its users. For example, in Polynesia it may be the image of a coastal ecosystem, while in North America it may be an iceberg. Icebergs are relatable to Canadians, but even more so is poutine (Figure 1).
Fig. 1: Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) as Canadian Poutine (Danielle Nadine Pierre, 2025)
The group decided that, as proud Canadians, we also needed to Canadianize the CLA analogy using our national dish. The topmost layer consists of the cheese litany, followed by French fries that make-up the starchy systems holding our world together. The Gravy steeps the litany and systems in our rich worldviews, and finally, holding it all together, are the containing myths and metaphors.
The CLA method promotes creative problem-solving by summarizing the concepts at each level of depth and showing a causal path for arriving at, and moving away from, the current state. While it is best explored by those with deep knowledge at each of their levels, the concise layered summaries allow participants to enter into dialogue to understand the reasons behind the stance of the prior layer. The CLA framework gains additional power when it structures a dynamic conversation, with different players acting out each layer. The layer summaries and positions give context to the four roles and make it feel realistic and immersive for the participants. Taking on a role allows for exploration of specific areas of a complex problem and potentially finding different opportunities than can be found when looking at the entire problem at once, leading to transformative ideas.
3. Methodology
The goal for the Masterclass was to provide participants strategic inspiration, creativity in exploration, and momentum in learning and applying the framework. After an introduction to CLA, participants engaged in hands-on practice. Attendees worked collaboratively, using the Canadian healthcare system with which all participants had lived experiences, to generate their first CLA. This was CLA-in-action. The group broke out into four smaller groups, one per layer of the framework. One group explored the litany by brainstorming potential news headlines related to the current state of the healthcare system, access to hospitals, and primary care physicians. The next group generated system perspectives, rules, and constraints by roleplaying as different interest holders: healthcare practitioners, advocates, media pundits, and elected officials. A third group determined the worldviews driving decision-making, also through roleplay, as a unified government department. The last group observed the metaphors that described experiences with the healthcare system and that summarize the current circumstances.
New groups were then created to analyze selected elements of the Canadian experience: postsecondary education, healthcare, geopolitics, and small business/entrepreneurship. Using self-determined and conversational strategies, each group identified common issues within their topic area. This round required each group to move through all four layers of analysis in search of an explanatory story for the current state of the issues. Next, the groups discussed more desirable worldviews that might inspire new systems and a new litany of potential solutions. Outcomes of this analysis are presented in the Workshop Outcomes section.
Upon completion of the analysis using CLA, the Masterclass continued with scenario development, covering a diverse range of possible futures to increase the robustness and resilience of our visions for Canada’s future by exploring a series of progressively more radical scenarios. Each group imagined a future 10 to 15 years from now that embodied one of four archetypes of change: maintaining the status quo, marginal change, adaptive change, or radical change. In this way, the CLA was used as an experiential case study that demonstrated its ability to create new and engaging possibilities. These different scenarios were presented at the closing of the day and are discussed in section 5 as four increasingly divergent scenarios for Canada’s futures.
4. Workshop Outcomes: The Futures We Imagine – Transforming Canada’s Narrative
This section presents the key outcomes of the CLA Masterclass workshop, beginning with an exploration of four pressing areas of Canadian life—long-term care, post-secondary education, Canada–U.S. relations, and small business resilience (Section 4.1). Through deep analysis and metaphor, participants uncovered hidden assumptions and proposed new pathways forward. Building on these insights, Section 4.2 offers four distinct scenarios for Canada’s future, ranging from status quo continuity to radical societal transformation. Together, these explorations illustrate how CLA can be used not just to critique the present, but to creatively reimagine what’s possible.
4.1 Future Change Exploration through Four areas of the Canadian Lived Experience
How to improve long-term care (LTC)
Participants noted that, behind the litany of number of beds and wait times lies a system of rigid infrastructure, funding and staffing deficits, and an aging population. These systemic deficits point to a worldview in which aging is framed as a failure, and care of the aged as a burden. One of the metaphors explored – “planned obsolescence” – points to the expectation that people’s value diminishes with age.
In opposition to this, participants framed a new metaphor: “experience as a natural resource.” The resulting worldview shows working with aging people to be a privilege. The systems supporting this worldview (community-based care, strengths-based assessments) facilitate both care of and knowledge exchange with aging people and their communities. An ideal litany, then, would be the availability of community-based care.
How post-secondary education might evolve
The CLA for post-secondary education starts with a litany whereby the perceived value of educational programs is dictated by rates of post-graduate employment. Supporting systems are the high cost of living, precarious institutional funding, and a system in which students invest heavily in pursuit of credentials. These systems are shaped by a worldview focused on the “return on investment” of education. “The institution is a factory, with skilled workers as its product.”
Participants proposed an alternative metaphor: “the education concierge”. This metaphor is marked by worldviews of individual curation and education as a public good and, where learning experiences are catered toward the strengths and interests of students. The division between education and industry blurs together, resulting in expanded learning centres that enable employers to play a larger role in the provision of education. The desired litany is one where learning occurs across the lifetime, in smaller increments. The value of education is clearly apparent in this future, due to its tailored approach to the needs of individual learners.
How the Canadian federal government could approach its suddenly changed relationship with the US
At the time of CLA development, a litany of headlines on annexing Canada to the United States of America, closing a porous border, getting a better trade deal, and boosting military defense were top-of-mind for all. The systems supporting the litany are the interdependence of the US and Canada as trading partners. Underlying worldviews are that protectionism trumps globalism. The core metaphor positions the US as a “bully, not friend.”
In the alternate vision for the future, participants imagined taking the weight off the relationship itself and the expectations set by its long history. Participants proposed metaphors including “chosen family” and “Trojan moose,” in which Canada avoids rhetorical posturing and confrontation in favour of inclusion and open borders. Like the Trojan horse, the Trojan moose appears innocuous (by maintaining the rules of diplomacy) while being discrete and strategic (in building trading partnerships). Instead of playing the game of bully or best friend, Canada leverages its worldview that rules matter to forge trusted partnerships with global peers and expand trade. The new litany showed Canada’s range of trade partnerships, becoming prosperous and encouraging the US to join us as an ally again.
How small-and medium-sized enterprises could thrive in the face of threatened tariffs from the US
The vulnerability of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to increased tariffs will be exacerbated by pre-existing restrictions that restrain lending, supply chains and interprovincial trade restrictions. Government support programs that focus on the establishment of SMEs, but not on expanding them is another significant constraint. These are driven by a risk-averse worldview, where Canada has not demonstrated its ability to be a major player in global markets. This is driven by a metaphor where the risk is not worth the reward – “Canada would rather play it safe”.
In contrast, the participants’ reimagined future is driven by a metaphor that, “we play BIG, together.” The worldview underlying this future prioritizes collaboration to enable scalable global growth. This future is enabled by systems of national collaboration between small and medium businesses (e.g. buying consortia), resulting in a litany that supports the collective success of small and medium businesses. In this future, businesses share both the risk and reward.
4.2 Scenarios for Canada: Four Increasingly Divergent Futures
The final challenge was to construct scenarios that imagine paths towards Canada’s future. These visions of Canada in 2040 represent archetypal directions of change from the status quo to marginal change, adaptive change, and radical change (Milojević, 2023). “CLA isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about understanding the stories we tell ourselves about the future and how those stories shape our actions today”.
No change scenario: “Zero Wars, More Sports Teams”
Table 1 summarizes the key features of a scenario where Canada largely stays the course, doubling down on traditional power structures and established economic models. This no-change scenario is the path of least resistance. The story that emerged was one of a nation trying to capitalize on global changes without fundamentally altering its societal structures or international relationships.
Participants imagined a Canada flexing its military muscles, especially in the Arctic, as melting ice opens new shipping routes and resource extraction opportunities. This Canada sees itself as a resource powerhouse, leveraging its vast territories to secure economic advantages in a warming world. The focus on “more sports teams” hints at a bread-and-circus style of governance, where national unity and public satisfaction are maintained through entertainment and spectacle rather than tackling underlying societal issues head-on.
In this future, the education system remains largely unchanged, with elite institutions holding onto their status and exclusivity. Small businesses operate in a cutthroat, “survival of the fittest” environment, with limited government intervention. Healthcare continues to be a source of national pride, but with minimal innovation or structural changes to address emerging challenges like an aging population or the mental health impacts of climate anxiety.
Table 1: No Change Scenario – “Zero Wars, More Sports Teams”
| CLA Layer | Description |
| Litany | • Beefing up military presence• Cashing in on climate change effects• Putting sports and entertainment front and center |
| System | • Keeping traditional institutions intact• Dog-eat-dog world for small businesses• Exclusive, unchanged higher education system |
| Worldview | • Clinging to the American dream• Every man for himself mentality• “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” attitude |
| Metaphor | “Men in big castles rule” |
To bring this scenario to life, participants suggested the following key moves:
- More military spending, especially for Arctic sovereignty protection
- Policies to speed up resource extraction in newly accessible Arctic regions
- Invest in sports franchises and major entertainment venues
- Maintain immigration levels to support population growth
- Retain current funding for healthcare and education
Marginal change scenario: “Dipping Our Toes In”
The marginal change scenario, summarized in Table 2, painted a picture of a Canada cautiously adapting to global shifts while trying to maintain stability. This future reflects a national psyche that values security and gradual progress over radical transformation.
In this scenario, Canada takes small steps towards reinvigorating its international relationships, particularly in trade. The nation looks to diversify its economic partnerships, while maintaining its bond with traditional allies. There’s recognition that change is needed, but also a strong desire to play it safe.
This Canada grapples with its aging population by introducing “soft retirement” programs to keep seniors in the workforce. The education system explores micro-credentialing, but the basic structure of higher education remains intact. Small businesses get targeted support, but only those deemed “indispensable” to Canada’s new direction.
Healthcare in this scenario starts to experiment with intergenerational care models, creating partnerships between youth organizations and long-term care facilities, but these changes are rolled out as pilot projects rather than system-wide reforms.
Table 2: Marginal Change Scenario – “Dipping Our Toes In”
| CLA Layer | Description |
| Litany | • Cautiously exploring new trade partnerships• Throwing lifelines to “indispensable” businesses• Nudging seniors to stay in the workforce |
| System | • Rolling out “soft retirement” programs• Matchmaking between schools and industry• Dipping toes into micro-credentialing |
| Worldview | • Slow and steady wins the race• Better safe than sorry• Change is good, but let’s not go overboard |
| Metaphor | “Just a little bit of risk” |
To make this scenario a reality, participants outlined these key steps:
- Launch “soft retirement” policies to keep seniors engaged in the workforce
- Provide tax breaks to businesses that provide benefits to older workers
- Educational institutions to include micro-credentialing programs
- Intergenerational care pilot projects launched in select communities
- Identify small businesses deemed strategically important
- Explore new trade partnerships while keeping old friends close
Adaptive change scenario: “Faking Right, Eh?”
The scenario summarized in Table 3 envisioned a Canada that is about strategic adaptation to global changes, with a reimagined role on the world stage while simultaneously and innovatively tackling domestic challenges.
In this future, Canada leverages its reputation for diplomacy to “punch above its weight” on the world stage. The nation adopts a crafty strategy of “faking right”—appearing to align with traditional power structures—while “acting left” by quietly pushing for progressive global policies and building coalitions with like-minded nations.
This Canada invests in “radical small actions”—targeting interventions in various sectors that have the potential to spark significant changes. The education system gets a facelift, focusing on developing future-ready skills and nurturing a new kind of global citizen. Healthcare becomes more proactive and community-oriented, emphasizing preventive care and whole mind-body wellness.
In the business world, Canada becomes a hotbed of innovation, supporting small businesses that align with its new strategic direction, and growing medium- and large enterprises. There’s an effort to position Canadian companies at the leading edge of emerging industries, particularly clean technology and sustainable resource management.
Table 3: Adaptive Change Scenario – “Faking Right, Eh?”
| CLA Layer | Description |
| Litany | • Becoming the go-to advisor for global heavyweights• Betting big on small, game-changing actions• Flexing Canada’s soft power muscles |
| System | • Building collaborations with like-minded nations• Adapting policy and practice to outwardly align with global trends while protecting Canadians from harsh global changes• Rewriting the playbook on diplomacy and economics |
| Worldview | • Embracing Canada’s middle power status• Being the change we want to see• Adapting to survive and thrive |
| Metaphor | “Sorry, not sorry” |
To bring this scenario to life, participants suggested these key moves:
- Establish a team of diplomats to build a “coalition of middle powers”
- Galvanize a citizen-led, national strategy for identifying and implementing “radical small actions” in local communities
- Overhaul postsecondary education system, focusing on future-ready skills, global citizenship, and adaptability
- Position Canada as a trailblazer in clean technology and sustainable resource management
- Develop policies to grow small businesses that align with Canada’s new strategic direction at-home
- Launch a public awareness campaign to reshape how the world sees Canada (and how Canadians see themselves)
Radical change scenario: “Seven Generations Forward”
The radical change scenario, summarized in Table 4, threw our contemporary worldviews and paradigms out the window, a fundamental reimagining of societal structures, economic systems, and the very idea of nationhood. It’s a Canada that’s undergone a complete shift in response to global crises.
In this new world, the traditional concept of the nation-state has evolved beyond recognition. Canada becomes a network of autonomous workers and labourers, held together by shared values and a commitment to regeneration and restoration, rather than centralized governance. The idea of land ownership gets a radical makeover, with much of the territory managed collectively for the benefit of all inhabitants and future generations.
Healthcare in this future is localized, moving from big hospitals to community-based care networks that emphasize holistic well-being. Education is reimagined as a lifelong, peer-to-peer process, with formal institutions giving way to knowledge-sharing networks and real-world learning experiences.
The economy in this Canada revolves around the principles of a circular system. Highlighting the transformational potential of centering Indigenous worldviews in policy and practice, such as through Seven Generations thinking, this future is characterized by a focus on regenerative practices that attend to the long-term impacts of decision-making. The line between small business and big corporation is eliminated, replaced by an ecosystem of interconnected, purpose-driven individuals and their collective projects.
This radical future also sees Canada taking center stage in reimagining global governance, championing new forms of international cooperation based on bio-regional alliances rather than traditional geopolitical boundaries.
Table 4: Radical Change Scenario – “Seven Generations Forward”
| CLA Layer | Description |
| Litany | • Autonomous workers and labourers replace traditional businesses• Land is collectively managed• Healthcare goes hyper-local |
| System | • Long term, regeneration focused thinking becomes the norm• Peer-to-peer learning replaces traditional schooling• Economy and society reimagined |
| Worldview | • Agility and adaptability• Everything is connected• Transformation of change itself |
| Metaphor | “Out with the old, in with the radically new” |
To turn this bold vision into reality, participants outlined the following actions:
- Start a nationwide conversation on reimagining governance structures and the role of the nation-state
- Draft a comprehensive plan for transitioning to a collective land management system
- Form a team to design and implement a distributed, community-based healthcare model
- Transform the education system, focusing on peer-to-peer learning and real-world skill development
- Establish policies that transition Canada to a circular, regenerative economy
- Launch international initiatives to promote bio-regional governance and new forms of global cooperation
- Prioritize technologies and infrastructures that enable autonomous, interconnected communities
Each of these scenarios paints a distinct picture of Canada’s future, shaped by different assumptions, values, and responses to global challenges. By exploring these diverse futures through the CLA lens, participants were able to uncover deep-seated cultural narratives and worldviews that underpin different trajectories for the nation.
5. Discussion
The multi-layered approach of CLA allowed us to go beyond surface-level trends and dig into the systemic issues, worldviews, and cultural metaphors that shape the way we make sense of the present and our future. This depth of analysis is crucial for developing comprehensive and transformative policies, as it shines a light on the underlying structures and beliefs that often resist change (Inayatullah, 2008). Take, for instance, the stark contrast between the “Men in big castles rule” metaphor in the no-change scenario and the “Sorry, not sorry” metaphor in the adaptive change scenario. This shift highlights the dramatic changes in power dynamics and national identity envisioned in different futures.
Similarly, CLA brings multiple perspectives to the table, from small policy considerations to deeply held cultural beliefs. This multi-angle approach allows for a more holistic understanding of complex issues (Milojević & Inayatullah, 2015). The wide range of scenarios we generated, from maintaining the status quo to completely overhauling society, shows the breadth of possibilities that emerge when we seek more diverse viewpoints.
By exploring different levels of change, participants were forced to question their assumptions about what is possible or desirable for Canada’s future. This process of challenging mental models is key for innovative policy making and aligns with recent calls in futures studies for more critical and transformative approaches to envisioning futures (Inayatullah, 2020). The radical change scenario shows how CLA can help us imagine fundamentally different societal structures and values.
The use of metaphors in each scenario highlighted the power of storytelling in shaping futures. This aligns with Inayatullah’s emphasis on the importance of metaphor in futures studies and shows how changing the underlying story can lead to radically different visions of the future (Inayatullah, 1998) and connect these to different opportunities in the now to influence the future. The progression from “Men in big castles rule” to “Out with the old, in with the radically new” illustrates a tremendous range of perspectives among how participants conceptualized Canada’s current circumstances and different actions to move towards any of these futures.
Finally, the workshop revealed tension between what participants saw as feasible and what they believed was necessary or inspirational. This tension reflects broader challenges in futures work and policymaking, where the gravitational pull of the present often holds us back from envisioning and working towards transformative futures (Candy & Kornet, 2019).
6. Workshop Observations and Practical Implications
This section highlights key insights and limitations from the workshop, offering recommendations to enhance future foresight sessions through broader inclusion, deeper engagement, and more imaginative, systems-level thinking.
Widen Participant Representation
The workshop’s self-selected group, while engaged, lacked broader demographic diversity. Future research should prioritize outreach to youth—who are often excluded from long-term decision-making—and Indigenous communities, whose perspectives are essential for addressing Canada’s colonial legacy and envisioning regenerative futures.
Design for Deeper Engagement
The single-session format limited the depth of scenario development. Future workshops should consider multi-session or longitudinal formats to allow participants time to reflect, iterate, and co-create more layered and imaginative futures.
Surface and Disrupt Dominant Narratives
While CLA helped participants explore deeper cultural and systemic layers, many scenarios still reflected dominant present-day assumptions. Future research should experiment with techniques that push further beyond current paradigms to unlock more radical, transformative possibilities.
Blend Methodologies for Richer Insights
Participants expressed interest in combining CLA with other foresight tools—such as speculative design or systems mapping—to enhance creativity and analytical depth. Future workshops could test hybrid approaches to better support diverse learning and thinking styles.
Explore Digital and Communicative Enhancements
The workshop highlighted the potential for more digital tools (e.g., collaborative platforms, AI-assisted scenario generation) to support more dynamic and inclusive foresight processes. Future research could also examine how to better communicate CLA-generated futures to broader audiences, including policymakers and the public, to inspire action.
7. Conclusion
Our deep dive into CLA has shown how powerful this tool can be for exploring and shaping national futures. By facilitating a multi-layered examination of potential futures for Canada, our workshop generated insights into the complex interplay of societal, economic, and cultural factors that might shape our trajectory.
The four scenarios we developed—ranging from status quo to radical transformation—offer a spectrum of possibilities that can inform policy discussions, strategic planning, and public discourse. But perhaps more importantly, the process of developing these scenarios through CLA reflected our underlying assumptions, worldviews, and cultural narratives back at us, making explicit the things that often go unnamed and unexplored in traditional planning processes.
As Canada navigates an increasingly complex and uncertain global environment, methodologies like CLA can be valuable tools for enhancing foresight capabilities and fostering more adaptive, resilient approaches to governance and societal development. By encouraging a deeper, more systemic view of potential futures, CLA can contribute to more thoughtful, inclusive, and transformative approaches to shaping our collective future.
The journey from “Men in big castles rule” to “Transformation of Change Itself” is more than just a shift in metaphors—it is a profound reimagining of what is possible. As we face unprecedented global challenges, such reimagining is not merely valuable—it is essential. This study serves as a call to action for policymakers, business leaders, and citizens alike to engage more deeply with the future, to challenge our assumptions, and to actively participate in creating the futures we desire.
Acknowledgements
Initial workshop capture and summary of scenarios was drafted with support from Agentiiv AI.
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