Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures

by Andrew Curry & Wendy Schultz


This exploratory project emerged from the question, “do different scenario building methods generate distinctively different outputs?” Using base data from a completed scenario project, the authors and volunteer participants re-processed the raw and filtered drivers and interview data through four different scenario building methods: the 2×2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. We retained the issue question from the original project (“what are possible futures for civil society?”) as our focus. This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences.

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