Anybody out there? The Future of Tax

Abstract

Most tax revenue and tax policy research papers discuss historical developments and the current challenges of raising tax revenue. This paper takes a long term view and addresses the possible futures of tax revenue using the Three Horizons model. With the help of this model, it outlines possible futures for raising tax revenue in an environment of rapidly evolving technology, automation, globalization, the rising power of powerful interest groups, and the trend of increased accumulation of wealth in the hands of fewer taxpayers. By analyzing possible futures, the assumptions of key stakeholders are tested.

Keywords: Tax policy, foresight, tax revenue, Three Horizons model, future tax

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